Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, January 26, 2026: US Durable Goods Orders, Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index, Earnings Reports from Major Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia. Analysis for Investors and Overview of Global Markets.
The new week begins relatively calmly but carries important signals for global markets. Investors are focused on the US industry data—primarily, the December durable goods orders—which will clarify the state of the manufacturing sector prior to the Federal Reserve's decision mid-week. In Europe, the focus is on the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany as a barometer of business activity at the start of the year. On the corporate agenda, the first reports of the season are on the horizon: industrial and financial companies in the US will report results, while a leading airline stands out in Europe. In Asia, trading activity is partially diminished due to a holiday in Australia; however, regional markets continue to respond to global trends. Overall, Monday sets the tone for the week: the absence of major macroeconomic statistics is offset by a keen focus on any signals regarding the trajectory of the economy and corporate profits.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 12:00 PM – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (January).
- 4:30 PM – US: Durable Goods Orders (December).
- 4:30 PM – US: Core Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation (December).
- 6:30 PM – US: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index (January).
US: Durable Goods Orders
- Overall Order Dynamics – a measure of business investment in fixed assets. An increase in new orders for goods with a lifespan of more than three years (vehicles, equipment) signals a revival in the manufacturing sector and companies' confidence in future demand. Conversely, a decrease would indicate caution among manufacturers and could heighten fears of an economic slowdown.
- Core Orders (excluding transportation and defense) – reflect trends in private sector capital spending. Orders for capital goods, excluding defense and aerospace, are particularly important as a leading indicator of business investments. Sustained growth in this figure will bolster positive GDP expectations for the US in Q4, while weakness may trigger downward revisions of forecasts.
- Market Impact – strong data on orders could strengthen the US dollar and raise Treasury yields, indicating economic resilience ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. This may put pressure on high-tech stocks (which are sensitive to interest rates) but support the shares of industrial companies. Conversely, weak statistics would weaken the dollar and lower yields, bolstering expectations of a dovish policy – temporarily supporting stock indices.
Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany
- Business Sentiment – the January Ifo index reflects German companies' assessments of the current situation and expectations for the next six months. This is the first major indicator of the year for the Eurozone economy. An improvement in the index would indicate a recovery in business activity at the start of 2026 after potential stagnation, supporting European markets and the euro. A drop in the index would serve as a worrying signal about weak demand and investment in the largest economy in the EU.
- Components of the Index – investors will pay attention to sub-indices of current situation and business expectations. An increase in the expectations component is especially crucial: company optimism about the future may signal a softening of recession risks in Europe. If expectations have deteriorated, this will strengthen defensive sentiment, potentially leading to a decline in the DAX index and increased demand for safe assets (bonds, gold).
- Connection to ECB Policy – although the European Central Bank's decision is not awaited on this day, the Ifo data indirectly influences the ECB's rhetoric. An improving business climate would provide hawkish arguments for further tightening policy to contain inflation, while a weak index would offer support for a more cautious approach. This, in turn, will impact the EUR/USD exchange rate and yields on European bonds.
Earnings Reports: Before US Market Opens (BMO)
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) – one of the largest steel producers in the United States will report before trading begins. Investors will focus on the margins of the steel business and management's forecasts for steel demand in 2026. Shipment volumes and price dynamics are particularly significant: rising sales amidst stable prices will indicate a recovery in industrial demand. Market participants will also evaluate the company's comments on raw material and energy costs to understand cost pressure.
Earnings Reports: After US Market Closes (AMC)
- Nucor Corporation (NUE) – the largest steelmaking company in the US (S&P 500). The Q4 report will showcase the state of American metallurgy. Key metrics include the average realized price of steel products, capacity utilization, and shipment volumes. Investors also await demand forecasts from the construction and automotive sectors – the primary consumers of steel. Strong results from Nucor could act as a positive driver for the entire industrial sector, while weak results may heighten concerns for the manufacturing sector.
- Brown & Brown (BRO) – an insurance broker and consultant. The company’s results will reflect the state of the insurance market: growth in commission revenues and organic premium growth will indicate healthy demand for insurance products from businesses and consumers alike. Comments from management regarding property and liability insurance pricing, as well as forecasts for new client acquisition rates, will be particularly important. Data from BRO is valuable to investors as an indicator of the financial sector and business activity in small and medium enterprises.
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) – a large commercial insurer (property & casualty insurance). The focus will be on the combined ratio (the ratio of losses and expenses to premiums) and the dynamics of insurance reserves. Improvement in these metrics indicates profitability in underwriting and the resilience of the insurance portfolio. Additionally, WRB may comment on trends related to losses from natural disasters and major claims: a low level of catastrophic payouts will support results. Berkley’s report will provide guidelines regarding the state of the insurance sector and corporate credit risk.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) – an investment trust that specializes in real estate for scientific research laboratories and biotech office spaces. The quarterly report will reveal whether demand for lab space remains high despite general weakness in commercial real estate. Investors will assess occupancy levels, rental rate trends, and plans for developing new campuses. Strong results from ARE will indicate that the life sciences segment is resilient to macro challenges, while issues related to vacancies or declining rents may heighten concerns about office real estate.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, Monday's corporate calendar is thin in "blue chips." The main attention is on the report of Ryanair – Europe’s largest low-cost airline. The financial results of Ryanair for the last quarter of 2025 (Q3 of the company’s financial year) will show passenger traffic dynamics, flight load factors, and the impact of fuel prices. A successful report from the carrier will support stocks in the travel and airline sectors in Europe, signaling the ongoing recovery of travel. Additionally, the report from Swedish industrialist Epiroc AB (mining equipment) will provide insight into global investment demand in raw material and infrastructure markets. Overall, European exchanges will respond to the Ifo index and external factors at the start of the week, as major Euro Stoxx 50 corporate reports are concentrated in the latter half of the week.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: In Japan, Monday does not mark the release of significant statistics, and markets are following global trends. Investors are evaluating a moderate slowdown in inflation in the country (the December core CPI eased to ~2.4% YoY) and speculating on how this might influence the Bank of Japan's policy. The earnings season in Tokyo is just beginning: major releases from high-tech corporations and automakers are expected closer to the end of January and the beginning of February. At the start of the week, the Nikkei index might move within a limited range as local investors wait for signals from the US Federal Reserve and initial results from Japanese exporters.
- MOEX / Russia: In the Russian market, there is a relative calm before the annual earnings season. On Monday, large public companies from the Moscow Exchange index typically do not release financial results – major reports for 2025 are expected in February and March. However, operational data from certain issuers for Q4 may be released (for instance, resource extraction, production metrics), which can locally impact the respective stocks. Overall mood on the Moscow Exchange on this day will be influenced by global factors—oil price dynamics, sentiment in global markets, and the ruble exchange rate. The absence of internal triggers means that Russian investors will be looking to external signals of risk and appetite for emerging markets.
Day's Summary: What to Pay Attention to as an Investor
- US Orders: The report on durable goods will be the main trigger of the day. Watch for the core component (capital orders) – its steady growth will support the dollar and strengthen expectations of a “hawkish” tone from the Fed, while weakness may lead to a rally in bonds and an increase in the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
- European Economy: The morning Ifo index in Germany will set the tone for trading in the EU. Better-than-expected values will strengthen the euro and shares of cyclic companies in Europe (automotive, banks), while a negative surprise will increase demand for safe assets and may pressure the EUR exchange rate, benefiting exporters.
- Corporate Reports: Focus on results from industrial leaders and the consumer sector. In the US, Steel Dynamics and Nucor will provide benchmarks for the raw materials and construction segments: their profitability and forecasts will reveal the state of demand for steel. In Europe, Ryanair’s report will illustrate trends in the tourism industry and consumer spending. Investors must assess whether corporate profits justify high stock valuations or if a revision of forecasts is warranted.
- Upcoming Central Bank Meetings: A calm Monday presents an opportunity to prepare for mid-week volatility. As early as Wednesday, the market anticipates decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, followed by inflation data from Japan and GDP figures from Europe in the subsequent days. Therefore, investors may use the current day for positioning: reassessing hedging, ensuring portfolio diversification, and establishing key risk levels ahead of potentially sharp market fluctuations.
