Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Wednesday, January 28, 2026: FOMC Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, and Inflation in Russia and Australia

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on January 28, 2026. FOMC Meeting, Bank of Canada Decision, CPI Publication in Russia and Australia, Bank of Japan Minutes, Weekly EIA Oil Inventories, and Corporate Earnings Reports from the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Wednesday brings a comprehensive agenda for global markets. In Asia, the focus is on the minutes from the latest Bank of Japan meeting and the commencement of the largest airshow, Wings India 2026 in Hyderabad (featuring Boeing, Airbus, and others), reflecting the growth of India's aviation sector. Australia will release inflation data for Q4, impacting expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policies. The European session is relatively calm from a macroeconomic perspective; however, investors are attentive to corporate earnings reports from leading companies in the region, while the overall market dynamics will largely be shaped by central bank decisions in North America.

The key event of the day will be the Federal Reserve System (FOMC) meeting late in the evening: the outcome of the FOMC gathering will set the tone for market participants regarding interest rates in the United States and future monetary policy. Earlier in the evening, the Bank of Canada will also announce its rate decision, establishing a benchmark for other central banks. The energy market is focused on the weekly oil inventory statistics from the EIA, which can affect oil prices and commodity currencies. On the corporate front, a series of financial reports will be released from major publicly traded companies: from US tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, etc.) to industrial leaders in Europe (ASML, Volvo) and key players in Asian markets (Advantest, Maruti). Russian investors will assess the new inflation statistics and operational performance of X5 Group. Collectively, these factors will determine the performance of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and Moscow Exchange indices throughout the day. It is crucial for investors to analyze events in conjunction: central bank decisions ↔ bond yields and dollar exchange rates ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in equity markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 02:50 — Japan: Publication of the minutes from the last Bank of Japan meeting.
2. 03:30 — Australia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q4 2025.
3. 05:00 — India: Opening of the Wings India 2026 airshow (January 28–31, Hyderabad).
4. 17:45 — Canada: Bank of Canada's decision on the key interest rate.
5. 18:30 — Canada: Press conference by the Governor of the Bank of Canada following the meeting.
6. 18:30 — USA: Weekly commercial oil inventories (EIA).
7. 19:00 — Russia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 (preliminary data).
8. 22:00 — USA: Fed's decision on interest rates (results of the FOMC meeting).
9. 22:30 — USA: Fed press conference (Chairman Jerome Powell on the economy and monetary policy).

Federal Reserve: Interest Rate Decision

• Monetary Policy: Markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at the current level following a cycle of tightening. The focus is on whether the FOMC signals any possible shift in direction in the coming months. Any hint at an imminent rate cut could stimulate a rise in stocks and weaken the dollar, while statements emphasizing a continued hard stance in combating inflation may amplify Treasury yields and pressure high-risk assets.
• Forecasts and Rhetoric: Investors will intricately analyze the accompanying statement and the tone of Jerome Powell's comments. Assessments of the state of the US economy—stable labor market and inflation near target levels—could allow the Fed to pause or conclude its rate-hiking cycle. However, if the regulator expresses concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures, this may indicate a longer period of high rates without easing.
• Market Reaction: The Fed's decision and the rhetoric from the press conference traditionally lead to increased volatility. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq may react sharply to any changes in rate forecasts, with the tech sector being particularly sensitive. The US dollar and prices of gold and oil are also directly influenced by signals from the Fed, as they affect global liquidity and risk appetite.

Bank of Canada: Rate Expectations

• Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada will announce its key rate decision amid stabilizing inflation around the 2% target. Most analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged given the slowdown in the Canadian economy at the end of 2025. Nevertheless, an unexpected adjustment in rates would surprise the markets, directly impacting the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the dynamics of the TSX index on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
• Regulator's Comments: At the press conference, the head of the Bank of Canada will provide an updated perspective on inflationary risks and the state of the economy. Investors will assess whether the tone indicates the possibility of future rate cuts in 2026. Any mentions of price stability in commodities (vital for the Canadian economy) and the state of the housing market will influence expectations of monetary policy. The alignment or divergence of the Bank of Canada’s approach with the actions of the US Fed may set the tone for movements in currency pairs USD/CAD and overall sentiment of global investors.

Inflation in Australia and Russia

• Australia (CPI): Consumer inflation data for Q4 2025 will reflect the price growth pace in the Australian economy. Special attention is given to the core CPI: a steady slowdown in core inflation may bolster expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will refrain from further rate hikes or shift to easing. Against the backdrop of a sluggish economy in China (a key trading partner for Australia) and declining commodity prices, weak CPI could strengthen "dovish" sentiments, while an unexpected rise in inflation could boost yields on Australian bonds and strengthen the AUD.
• Russia (Price Index): Rosstat will publish fresh data on consumer prices, providing insight into inflation dynamics toward the end of 2025. In previous months, inflation in Russia picked up due to the weakening of the ruble and budgetary stimulus, forcing the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate. If the December data shows a slowdown in price growth, this could alleviate pressure on the regulator regarding further policy tightening. However, high inflation (significantly above the target of 4%) will maintain expectations of a high key rate in Russia. The response of the OFZ market (federal loan bonds) and the ruble exchange rate will depend on whether the statistics meet forecasts or surprise.

Oil and Commodities: EIA Inventory Report

• Oil Inventory in the US: The weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on crude oil and petroleum product inventories in the US is typically released on Wednesdays and serves as an indicator of supply-demand balance in the world's largest fuel market. If the data show a significant reduction in commercial oil inventories, this may indicate sustained demand or limited supply, supporting rises in Brent and WTI oil prices. Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories could weaken oil quotes, particularly affecting shares in the energy sector and currencies of commodity-exporting countries (including the Russian ruble and Canadian dollar).
• Commodity Price Dynamics: Besides inventories, investors are monitoring the overall trend in the commodity markets. By the end of January, oil is trading in the context of various factors: geopolitics, OPEC+ production agreements, and prospects for global demand. Fluctuations in oil prices influence inflation expectations worldwide. Additionally, prices for industrial metals and gold are under scrutiny: expectations of soft Fed policy could support precious metals, while strong data from the Chinese economy generally fuels growth in industrial metals.

USA: Earnings Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Others

• Microsoft (MSFT): One of the leaders in the S&P 500 will present its financial results for October–December 2025. Investors are anticipating revenue growth amid sustained demand for Azure cloud services and AI products. There will be a particular focus on management’s commentary regarding prospects in the artificial intelligence and enterprise software sectors. A strong report from Microsoft could support the entire US tech sector, while weak figures might trigger a sell-off in growth stocks.
• Meta Platforms (META): The parent company of Facebook and Instagram will report for Q4 2025, including the holiday advertising season. The market expects a recovery in advertising revenue growth aided by deeper monetization of Reels and a stable audience. Costs related to metaverse and AI projects will also be in focus—investors will look for signs of improvement in profitability after cost-cutting measures taken earlier in the year. Meta's results will set the tone for the entire NASDAQ, especially for the internet segment.
• Tesla (TSLA): The largest electric vehicle manufacturer will publish financial metrics for Q4, including delivery data for the entire 2025 year. Investor attention is on Tesla's operating margin—whether the company maintained profitability amid high competition and rising raw material costs. Markets are also waiting for updates on the production of new models (e.g., Cybertruck) and demand forecasts for 2026. Tesla's stock behavior post-report could significantly impact the Nasdaq index and sentiment surrounding the automotive sector.
• IBM (IBM): The conservative tech giant will report earnings for the last quarter of 2025. Investors will delve into the results from cloud solutions and software divisions, alongside performance indicators from the company's new business following restructuring (spinning off the services division into a separate firm Kyndryl). Steady profit and revenue growth at IBM would signal positivity for "legacy" IT companies, while weak segments (e.g., consulting or mainframes) may heighten concerns regarding corporate client demand.
• Starbucks (SBUX): The world's largest coffee chain will publish results for the first financial quarter of 2026 (October–December 2025). The focus will be on comparable sales (like-for-like) in the USA and China: the recovery of consumer activity in China following the lifting of COVID restrictions could significantly boost revenue in Asia, while in the USA, investors will be interested in the stability of demand amidst high interest rates. Starbucks' profitability and the dynamics of the loyalty program will also be key focus points for analysts. The findings of the SBUX report will allow for the assessment of the consumer sector's state and trends in the hospitality industry.

Europe: Reports from ASML, Volvo, and Other Companies

• ASML Holding (ASML): The Dutch manufacturer of semiconductor equipment, part of the largest Euro Stoxx 50 companies, will report for Q4 2025. ASML's results are considered a barometer for the semiconductor industry in Europe and globally. Investors are anticipating data on the volume of new orders for lithography systems, particularly regarding potential demand decline from chip makers in China and Taiwan. ASML's management forecasts for 2026 (especially regarding demand for advanced EUV scanners) will impact the entire European technology sector.
• AB Volvo (VOLV): The Swedish truck and construction machinery manufacturer will present financial results for Q4. Volvo's performance is interesting as an indicator of global industrial activity: truck order volumes in Europe, North America, and Asia will reflect the health of the transport and construction sectors. Margins will also be in focus—whether the company has been able to pass on cost increases (for raw materials, energy, and labor) into equipment prices. Stable results from Volvo could support stocks in Europe's industrial sector, while signs of demand slowdown might cause caution among investors.
• Lonza Group (LONN): The Swiss chemical and pharmaceutical company specializing in ingredients and services for biotech will unveil its earnings for Q4 2025. Lonza is a key contractor for many pharmaceutical firms, hence its revenue and order dynamics reflect trends in new drug and vaccine development. Investors are expecting updates on margins, as high energy costs in Europe may have impacted profits. Lonza's results will signal the condition of the pharmaceutical sector and the level of investment activity in biotechnology.
• Other European Companies: Several other companies in Europe will also release earnings reports on Wednesday, representing different sectors. Among them are Royal KPN (Netherlands, telecommunications), Tele2 (Sweden, telecommunications), online broker Nordnet (Sweden), and steelmaker SSAB (Sweden). Although these firms do not rank among the largest by capitalization, their results add to the overall picture of the telecommunications sector, fintech services, and industry in the European region. Local market reactions to their reports will depend on whether or not these firms exceed analysts' forecasts or face growth slowdowns.

Asia: Reports from Advantest, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro

• Advantest (6857.T): The Japanese semiconductor testing equipment manufacturer will present results for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year. The company is a notable component of the Nikkei 225 index, and its earnings will allow for the assessment of the state of the global chip supply chain. Growing order portfolios from chip manufacturers (e.g., in Taiwan and the USA) will indicate a revival in the industry, while weak sales signal a continuing inventory correction in the sector. Investors will also seek comments from Advantest on demand for equipment to test new chips amidst the advancement of AI and 5G technologies.
• Larsen & Toubro (LT.NS): The largest Indian engineering and construction conglomerate will announce its financial results for the quarter. Numbers from L&T serve as a barometer for investment activity in India's infrastructure and industry. Growth in profits and order portfolio amid governmental projects and private investment will affirm the acceleration of the country's economic development. Special attention will be on project margins and the situation in the energy division. Strong results from L&T could support growth in India's Nifty 50 index and bolster foreign investors' confidence in the Indian market.
• Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI): The country's largest car manufacturer, controlling about half of the domestic car market, will publish its report for Q3 of the 2026 fiscal year. Investors will assess Maruti's vehicle sales trends amidst rising interest rates and competition from foreign brands. Key figures include export metrics and market share for new models, along with management’s insights on supply chain conditions (chip shortages) and plans for electric vehicles. Maruti's results will reflect sentiments in the automotive sector across Asia and provide signals regarding consumer demand in emerging markets.

Russia: X5 Group and Corporate Outcomes of the Day

• X5 Group (FIVE): The leading retail chain in Russia (brands "Pyaterochka," "Perekrestok," and others) will present operational results for 2025. Investors will be interested in the dynamics of comparable sales (LFL) in the food segment amid double-digit food inflation and changing consumer behavior. Overall revenue growth is expected due to new store openings and online delivery development; however, growth rates may decelerate compared to the peak of post-pandemic recovery. Additionally, X5 may disclose preliminary profit or margin estimates, allowing for an assessment of the influence of cost inflation (wages, logistics) on retail. As one of the "blue-chip" stocks in the Moscow Exchange index, X5 is likely to influence sentiment in the Russian stock market, especially in the consumer goods sector.
• Other Corporate Events in Russia: In addition to X5, the operational results for 2025 will also be reported by the relatively new public retailer of men's clothing, Henderson Fashion Group (HNFG). Although Henderson's business scale is smaller than X5, its performance is intriguing in the context of recovering demand in non-food retail and the fashion segment in Russia. Furthermore, investors in the Russian market remain attentive to external factors—such as decisions from the US Fed and oil prices—which may overshadow the influence of local reports. In combination with inflation data in Russia, these corporate news items will help shape expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the overall state of the economy.

Day's Summary: What to Watch for Investors

• 1) Central Bank Decisions (Fed and Bank of Canada): will set the overall "tone" for markets. Soft signals will support stocks and bonds, while a hard rhetoric will increase volatility, especially in currency and commodity segments.
• 2) Inflation Data: will show the trajectory of prices in various parts of the world. Low CPI in Australia and slowing inflation in Russia will be positive for local markets, while an unexpected rise will strengthen expectations for strict policies from regulators.
• 3) Corporate Earnings from Giants: results from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and other leaders will dictate direction for the tech sector and Wall Street indices. In Europe and Asia, key companies (ASML, Volvo, Advantest, etc.) will signal trends within their sectors. Surprises from earnings reports can lead to sharp movements in individual stocks and sectors.
• 4) Oil Market: price reactions to EIA statistics will reflect on oil and gas companies and oil-dependent economies. Investors need to ascertain whether inventory changes are a short-term fluctuation or a part of a more sustainable supply/demand trend.
• 5) Geopolitics and Other Factors: Along with scheduled events, a backdrop of geopolitical risks and news remains, which could unexpectedly shift sentiment. Market participants should maintain flexibility: the combination of macro data, regulatory decisions, and corporate results creates a complex picture requiring a balanced approach to risks and assets.