Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Reports from Brazil and South Africa, Earnings from Apple and Visa

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Decisions, Macroeconomic Statistics from the USA, Eurozone, and South Africa, and Reportings from Major Public Companies Worldwide. An Overview for Investors.

Thursday presents a packed agenda for global markets. Central to the focus are the decisions on interest rates by the central banks of Brazil and South Africa, which will reflect the moods of regulators in emerging markets amidst inflation dynamics. The Eurozone will release consumer confidence and inflation expectations indices, supplemented by a series of corporate reports from major companies in the region. In the USA, the key events of the day will be the financial results from tech giant Apple and payment system Visa (to be published after market close), while throughout the day, investors will analyze the weekly labor market data and trade balance figures. The energy sector will focus on the natural gas inventory report in the USA due to the winter season. It is vital for investors to evaluate all signals in conjunction: dovish central bank tones in emerging markets ↔ trends in bond yields and currencies of emerging markets ↔ results from Apple and Visa ↔ risk appetite in equity markets (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, etc.).

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 00:30 — Brazil: Central Bank decision on interest rates.
2. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Index (January).
3. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Inflation Expectations Index (January).
4. 16:00 — South Africa: Central Bank (SARB) decision on interest rates.
5. 16:30 — USA: Initial Jobless Claims (week).
6. 16:30 — USA: Trade Balance (November).
7. 18:00 — USA: Factory Orders (November).
8. 18:30 — USA: Natural Gas Inventories (week, EIA).

Emerging Markets: Central Bank Decisions in Brazil and South Africa

• Brazil: The Central Bank (Copom) is likely to maintain the interest rate at around 15%, the highest level in the last 20 years. Inflation in Brazil has slowed (around 4–5% YoY), but remains above the target, thus the regulator is maintaining a hawkish tone. Markets will look for hints of policy easing: many expect a signal for the start of a rate-cutting cycle by March if inflation expectations continue to decline. Any change in rhetoric could affect the value of the real and the cost of Brazilian assets.
• South Africa: The SARB is meeting amid inflation nearing the new target of 3%. In December, consumer prices rose by +3.6% YoY, and the rand appreciated at the end of 2025. The regulator has already begun a cautious rate-cutting cycle, and the current decision presents a fine choice between a pause (keeping the rate around 6.75%) and a slight reduction of 0.25%. Analysts are divided evenly in their predictions. Easing policy would support economic growth and the local stock index, but some committee members may prefer to wait for additional data (new CPI, the country’s budget in February) for reassurance. Investors will closely listen to comments from the head of the SARB: indicators of further rate cuts could stimulate demand for South African bonds and affect the rand's exchange rate.

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

• Consumer Confidence: The European Commission will publish the consumer confidence index for January. The indicator is expected to remain in negative territory (around -13 to -15 points), reflecting ongoing cautious sentiment among households in the Eurozone. With persistently low unemployment and decreasing inflation, a moderate improvement in sentiment would strengthen hopes for maintaining consumer spending levels. However, the deep negative index suggests that Europeans are still inclined towards a savings-oriented behavior, potentially restraining retail sales.
• Inflation Expectations: Simultaneously, consumer inflation expectations will be revealed. In December, expectations for the coming year and beyond decreased to about ~4%, which is within an acceptable range around the ECB's target. If the January survey shows further declines in expected inflation, this will be a positive signal for the European Central Bank – confidence that price pressure is being controlled is growing. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inflation expectations could amplify the ECB's hawkish stance. The index results will influence the euro and market sentiment in Europe: lower expectations could support European stocks against the backdrop of hopes for soft monetary policy.

USA: Labor Market and Manufacturing

• Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly figure of initial jobless claims in the USA remains around multi-year lows (~200–210k claims). This confirms the resilience of the labor market: American employers are not rushing to lay off staff even amidst elevated Fed rates. If the new data for the week ending January 24 again show a figure below ~220k, investors will strengthen their views on the economy’s stability. However, a rise in claims above expectations could signal the beginning of a softening in the labor market, which may eventually influence Fed policy.
• Trade Balance (November): Data on US foreign trade for November will help assess the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q4. In October, the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to ~$29 billion – the lowest level since 2009, driven by a sharp increase in exports (including gold) and a reduction in imports. If the November trend of keeping the deficit at a low level continues, this will support calculations for a positive contribution of foreign trade to economic growth. Conversely, an expanding deficit may indicate a recovery in domestic demand (rising imports) and less support from exports. Special attention will be paid to the dynamics of exports of manufactured goods and energy resources, as well as consumer goods import flows for the holiday season.
• Factory Orders (November): The report on new factory orders will indicate the activity in the US manufacturing sector at the end of the year. A rise in the indicator is expected following a drop in October, largely due to the aerospace sector: it was previously reported that orders for durable goods surged by ~5% MoM in November due to a significant volume of contracts for aircraft. An increase in orders signals ongoing business investment demand, which is positive for manufacturers (Boeing, Caterpillar, etc.). However, a disappointing decrease in orders would indicate caution among companies amidst high rates and could amplify discussions about the risk of a manufacturing recession.

Energy Market: Natural Gas Inventories (EIA)

• The US Department of Energy will present the natural gas inventory data for the past week in the weekly EIA report. Currently, gas supplies in storage are seasonally declining due to winter heating demand. Analysts' forecasts expect a significant draw – possibly around 120–150 billion cubic feet for the week, which aligns with historical averages for the end of January. If the actual reduction in gas inventories exceeds expectations, this may lift natural gas prices in spot markets (especially in the USA and Europe). Conversely, a moderate draw or mild weather suppressing demand could lead to further decreases in gas prices. Energy sector traders will monitor whether current inventories are sufficient for the remainder of the winter and whether there is a risk of fuel shortages.

Corporate Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Asia)

• Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix (South Korea): The Asian tech sector sets the tone in the morning – two largest memory manufacturers reported strong results for Q4 2025. Samsung Electronics reported record operating profit, nearly tripling its YoY amid a surge in demand related to AI and recovery in the semiconductor market. SK Hynix also returned to profitability after a downturn last year, thanks to rising prices for memory chips (DRAM/NAND) and a revival in data center orders. Investors are assessing comments from these Korean companies on demand prospects for 2026: the continuation of the "chip cycle" on the rise will support the global tech sector, while warnings about market saturation or declining prices could dampen demand for semiconductor manufacturers' stocks.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): The American defense giant will present its report before the US market opens, showcasing results for Q4 and the entire 2025. Expectations for Lockheed are positive: global growth in military budgets and demand for high-tech weapons (F-35 fighters, missile defense systems, etc.) contribute to an increase in the order portfolio. Investors will focus on the size of the contract backlog and management's forecast for 2026. Special attention will be paid to margins and cost management amidst inflation, as well as comments on supply chains. Stable or exceeding expectations metrics at Lockheed Martin will support the entire defense sector, while a weak forecast may trigger profit-taking on defense stocks that have risen over the past year.
• Mastercard (MA): One of the world’s leading payment systems will report in the morning, providing data for Q4 2025. Resilient profit growth is expected amid high transaction volumes: the holiday season sales and increased tourist flows (cross-border payments) should support revenue. Investors will analyze the dynamics of Gross Dollar Volume, the growth in processed transactions, and segment metrics (e.g., B2B payments). Comments on consumer spending trends will be crucial – is there a noticeable downturn against high interest rates and prices? Any signals from Mastercard about a slowdown in activity or rising costs (e.g., due to new security technologies and competition) could impact shares of Visa, American Express, and the banking sector as well.
• Honeywell (HON): This industrial conglomerate from the Dow Jones Index will present quarterly results and its forecast for 2026. Honeywell has a balanced business – from aerospace equipment and automation systems to energy and digital segments. Revenue growth is expected, especially in the aerospace segment, considering high demand for aircraft parts and services amidst resuming passenger transport. Investors will also look at orders in the automation and climate equipment segment (affected by industrial modernization projects and "green" initiatives). The company has already hinted at cost optimization, so markets will be watching the operating margin levels closely. If Honeywell confirms a confident forecast for 2026 (profit growth, stable margins), it will bolster confidence in the US industrial sector. Weak segments or cautious guidance, on the contrary, may heighten concerns about economic slowing.
• Caterpillar (CAT): This global leader in construction and mining equipment will report before trading begins. Caterpillar serves as a barometer of global investment activity in infrastructure, construction, and resource extraction. Results are likely to reflect strong sales of construction equipment in North America (thanks to infrastructure projects in the USA) and steady demand for mining machinery (supported by high commodity prices in 2025). Focus will be on order dynamics from China and emerging economies: a slowdown in the construction sector in China or other regions may have impacted CAT's Asian sales. Also, investors will evaluate finished goods inventory levels and order size (book-to-bill) to gauge if excess inventory is building up among dealers. A strong Caterpillar report with a positive demand outlook will indicate the resilience of the global economy, while cautious comments (e.g., about rising rates pressuring builders) may dampen enthusiasm in the industrial segment.

Corporate Reports: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• Apple (AAPL): The day's climax – Apple's report for Q1 of the 2026 financial year (fourth calendar quarter of 2025) will be released after 23:00 MSK. Investors expect strong results from the holiday quarter: demand for flagship devices is traditionally high at year-end. Focus areas include iPhone 17 sales and, notably, dynamics in China: competition in the Chinese smartphone market has intensified, and any signs of slowing demand or price pressure there will be scrutinized. Moreover, Apple continues to bet on growth in its services segment (App Store, subscriptions, media) – an acceleration in service revenue growth improves the company's margin profile. Metrics for iPad and Mac sales after periods of decline, as well as success with new products (e.g., mixed-reality headset, if launched), will be essential. Margins will be under close watch: the company has previously warned about the impact of a strong dollar and chip costs. If Apple surpasses earnings expectations and provides a confident outlook, it will support the entire tech sector and could push the Nasdaq and S&P 500 upwards. Conversely, even a slight disappointment (e.g., a weak sales forecast or compressed margins) could trigger significant volatility and a wave of profit-taking in tech giant stocks.
• Visa (V): The leading global payment network will also report after the close of the American market, presenting results for Q1 of the 2026 financial year. Like Mastercard, investors look to Visa as an indicator of global consumer expenditure. Resilient revenue growth is expected, fueled by increased payment volumes and transactions. Of particular interest are data on cross-border transactions, reflecting international tourism and online retail: in 2025, travel recovery could have positively affected Visa's commissions. Management will likely note the influence of macro factors: inflation (increasing nominal payment volumes), interest rates (which may restrain credit expenditures), and competition from fintech startups. Investors will assess Visa's forecast for 2026: maintaining double-digit growth rates in profit and revenue would be a reassuring signal. Any mentions of slowing consumer activity, tightening regulations (e.g., capping fees), or technological risks could cause a short-term dip not only in Visa’s stocks but also in the entire financial sector.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: Europe on January 29 is rich with corporate reports from blue-chip companies. Several heavyweights in the Euro Stoxx 50 index will present reports, including SAP (the largest software developer in the EU), pharmaceutical giants Roche and Sanofi, as well as banks (Deutsche Bank, Nordea) and industrial leaders (ABB and Siemens Energy). These releases will set the tone for the European market: for instance, strong results from SAP in the cloud business or a positive profit forecast from Roche could support growth in the Euro Stoxx 50, while disappointments in the banking or industrial sectors could heighten investor caution. Additionally, statistical data from the European Commission (consumer confidence, inflation expectations) will influence the retail and finance sectors in the EU. Overall, European investors will be balancing between internal factors (company reports) and the external backdrop (monetary decisions in Brazil/South Africa, and later the US tech reports).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): In the Asian region, attention is drawn to corporate news from Japan. Major Japanese manufacturers have released their quarterly results: for example, Hitachi (a diversified technology conglomerate) and Keyence (a worldwide leader in industrial automation) have reported profits. The trends they demonstrate are vital for understanding the state of the industry: rising orders for equipment and electronics indicate healthy capital investments in the economy. If Japanese companies' results exceed expectations, the Nikkei 225 will receive support, particularly in the electronics and machinery segments. Investors in Asia are also considering the reports from Samsung and SK Hynix: the success of Korean chipmakers could positively affect the stocks of Japanese component suppliers (Tokyo Electron, Advantest). External factors, such as the yen's stable exchange rate and news from China, round out the trading picture in Tokyo.
• MOEX (Russia): On January 29, there are no financial reporting publications from leading issuers in the Russian market, so the dynamics of the MOEX index will largely be determined by external factors. In the morning, sentiment will be set by the Asian session (reaction to decisions from Brazil/South Africa and Samsung's reports), while during the day, the situation on European exchanges will play a role. Additionally, oil and gas prices will have an influence: following the EIA energy inventory data, volatility is expected in the oil and gas sector. The ruble remains relatively stable due to high oil prices and export revenues, so the currency factor is currently neutral for the stock market. The absence of internal drivers means that investors in MOEX will focus on the overall market conditions: a rise in risk appetite in global markets may push the index higher, while negative sentiment from external platforms (e.g., a drop in Nasdaq following Apple's report) could lead to cautious attitudes and profit-taking by local participants.

Day Results: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

1. Central Banks in Emerging Markets: Are Brazil and South Africa signaling the start of a rate-cutting cycle? Dovish rhetoric will support demand for risk in emerging markets (bonds, equities), while unexpected hawkish tones may locally strengthen currencies (real, rand) and cool appetite for EM assets.
2. Apple – A Technological Benchmark: Apple's report and forecast will determine sentiment in the technology sector globally. Strong sales and an optimistic outlook will set a positive momentum for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while weak figures could trigger sell-offs in tech. It is crucial for investors to assess how consumers are reacting to Apple’s new products and whether growth in more profitable services is maintained.
3. Payment Demand and Consumption: The results from Visa (and morning's Mastercard) serve as indicators of the health of global consumer demand. A rise in transaction volumes and travel will confirm the economy's resilience despite expensive credit. However, if payment companies notice signs of slowed spending, it could heighten concerns about declining global consumption in 2026.
4. European and Asian Corporations: The block release of reports in Europe and Asia (SAP, Roche, Samsung, Hitachi, etc.) will showcase regional profit dynamics. Better-than-expected releases will provide momentum to the local indices Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, affirming that business is adapting to new conditions. However, a series of weak reports may increase volatility and shift investors' focus to safe-haven assets.
5. US Macroeconomic Data: While the market has become accustomed to weekly statistics, an unexpected surge in jobless claims or a sharp change in the trade balance/orders could impact expectations for Fed policy. Investors should monitor whether the trend of 'soft landing' for the economy continues: low layoffs, healthy manufacturing, and balanced trade will strengthen confidence, while negative surprises could heighten recession risk discussions.