Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Saturday, July 25, 2026: Empty Macroeconomic Calendar, Weekly Results for S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX, Reduction of the Key Rate by the Central Bank of Russia to 14%, New Tariff Round by the U.S., and Market Preparedness for the FOMC Decision and Big Tech Earnings Reports
Saturday, July 25, 2026, arrives at global markets following one of the most nerve-wracking weeks of the second half of the year. There are no economic publications scheduled for this day: the exchanges in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia are closed, official statistics are not released, and corporate reports from major publicly traded companies do not coincide with the weekend. However, such a pause provides investors with an opportunity to consolidate disparate signals from the week into a coherent picture. Over the five trading days, markets received the ECB’s decision, a reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank of Russia, a spike in Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel, a new round of American import tariffs, and the first wave of disillusionment concerning artificial intelligence. The economic events and corporate reports on July 25, 2026, should be viewed as a day of risk reassessment ahead of the FOMC meeting and the earnings reports of major tech companies.
Macroeconomic Calendar: Why Markets are Silent on July 25
The global economic calendar for Saturday is empty across all key jurisdictions.
- U.S.: No publications from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS, or regional Federal Reserve Banks are scheduled. The market is processing the preliminary PMI for July, which showed the fastest growth in business activity in eight months, and a drop in initial jobless claims to a 57-year low.
- Eurozone: Following the ECB meeting and the release of preliminary PMIs from Germany, the Eurozone, and Britain, there is no statistical data. Inflation in the region remains around 2.8%, compared to the target level of 2%.
- Asia: Japan, China, and India have no releases scheduled. Focus has shifted to the Chinese PMIs and the Bank of Japan's decision expected at the end of next week.
- Russia: Rosstat and the Central Bank of Russia are not issuing publications. Weekly inflation for July 14–20 was 0.17%, matching the previous week's result.
Weekly Summary: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX
The week ended with a second consecutive decline in the U.S. market. On Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 1.21%, closing at 7,408.30 points – its worst day in over a month. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 2.15% to 25,137.69 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.97% to 51,711.65 points. On Friday, the indices partially recovered their losses amid a pullback in oil prices, but the weekly outcome remained negative. The total capitalization of the "magnificent seven" shrank by nearly $800 billion in just one Thursday.
European indices moved in sync with Wall Street: Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.69% on Thursday, the DAX declined by 1.56%, CAC 40 dropped by 1.64%, and FTSE 100 went down by 0.73%. The Nikkei 225 managed to stay in the green thanks to a weak yen and a resilient export sector. In the morning on Friday, the MOEX index dipped below 2,100 points before the CBR's decision; however, it turned upwards after the publication of the meeting results.
Oil and Geopolitics: Brent Above $100 and Reversal to $95
The primary source of volatility for the week was the energy market. Following reports from Yemeni Houthis regarding attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, Brent oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since late May. The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds temporarily rose above 4.7% – a year-to-date high. On Friday, prices reversed: Brent lost about 5% and fell below $95 amid reports of potential resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran through third parties. Nevertheless, for the week, oil finished trading in positive territory, and the premium for geopolitical risk in price remains significant.
New U.S. Tariffs: 10–12.5% for 60 Trading Partners
As of 12:01 AM Eastern Time on July 24, the new U.S. tariff regime came into effect. The administration imposed additional tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 major trading partners, including the EU, China, and India, as a result of an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. This measure covers about 99.4% of U.S. imports and replaces the expired temporary 10% global tariff. Several energy products were exempted from tariffs. For investors, this means a new structural cost factor for importers, retail, and industrial supply chains – and an additional inflationary risk for the FOMC.
Corporate Reports for the Week: U.S. Companies in the S&P 500
The earnings season for the second quarter of 2026 has crossed its midpoint. Of the first 95 reporting companies in the S&P 500, approximately 88% exceeded consensus earnings expectations with a median beat of around 7%. However, the reaction of stock prices was asymmetric: the market penalized increases in capital expenditures more than it rewarded profit gains.
Technology and Artificial Intelligence
- Alphabet (GOOGL) – revenue grew by 24% to $119.8 billion, earnings amounted to $9.11 per share, and Google Cloud revenue surged by 82%. However, the doubling of capital expenditure forecasts to $205 billion caused shares to plummet by over 7%.
- Tesla (TSLA) – revenue increased by 26% to $28.2 billion, but earnings per share fell by 18% to $0.33, while free cash flow went negative at $1.1 billion. Shares lost about 14%.
- Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM, and ServiceNow (NOW) reported in the context of an overall correction in the semiconductor sector.
Finance, Consumer, and Telecom
- American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), and NextEra Energy (NEE) exceeded earnings forecasts on Friday but fell short on revenue.
- Capital One (COF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Blackstone (BX), Chubb (CB), and Comcast (CMCSA) completed the picture of the financial and media sectors.
Industry, Energy, and Transportation
- General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Honeywell (HON), RTX, Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) demonstrated resilience in the defense cycle.
- Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC), CSX, and Canadian National Railway (CNI) provided a snapshot of industrial activity in North America.
- SLB, Halliburton (HAL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and Newmont (NEM) serve as indicators of the commodity cycle.
Europe and Asia: SAP, STMicroelectronics, and Shin-Etsu Chemical
Among the companies in Euro Stoxx 50 and the European landscape, SAP SE, STMicroelectronics (STM), and Rogers Communications reported earnings. The Asian block featured Japanese chemical giant Shin-Etsu Chemical, which is part of Nikkei 225 and serves as a leading indicator for the semiconductor supply chain. The overall conclusion for the Old World is that the industrial segment is still lagging behind the services sector, while energy costs remain the main risk for the margins of European exporters.
Russian Market: Key Rate at 14% and MOEX Issuer Reports
The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% annually on July 24 – the fourth easing since the beginning of the year. The updated medium-term forecast anticipates an average key rate in the range of 14.5-14.6% for 2026 and 10.5-12.5% for 2027. The regulator noted moderate economic growth in the second quarter and linked the summer acceleration in prices primarily to one-off factors, while also indicating a rise in inflation expectations. The meeting summary will be published on August 5, with the next meeting scheduled for September 11.
The market response was positive: after a morning drop below 2,100 points, the MOEX index turned upward. The dollar rate set by the CBR from July 24 was 78.4049 rubles. Among corporate news for the week, notable mentions include a decrease in net profit for NOVATEK under IFRS for the half-year to 218.6 billion rubles, mixed earnings from Rusagro for the second quarter with a dividend recommendation of 16.48 rubles per share, and the inclusion of Yandex shares in the MOEX value creation index effective July 30.
Next Week's Calendar: FOMC, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Big Tech
- Tuesday, July 28 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the U.S.
- Wednesday, July 29 — Inflation in Australia; FOMC interest rate decision (current range 3.50-3.75%) and press conference by the regulator's head, Kevin Warsh. The meeting will occur without an update on macro forecasts and the dot plot, placing all emphasis on the wording of the statement. Reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META).
- Thursday, July 30 — GDP of Germany and the Eurozone, Bank of England decision, German inflation, U.S. second-quarter GDP and PCE deflator, consumer inflation in Japan. Reports from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).
- Friday, July 31 — China’s business activity indices, Bank of Japan decision (current rate 0.50%) and preliminary Eurozone inflation.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- The linkage between “oil — yields — FOMC.” The increase in Brent above $100, combined with record-low jobless claims, has shifted market expectations towards tightening FOMC policy. For investors, this implies a risk of overvaluation in long bonds and growth companies.
- Capital expenditures as a new evaluation criterion. The reaction to Alphabet's report indicated that the market has shifted from rewarding scale in AI investments to demanding proof of returns. The upcoming reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will serve as a critical test of this thesis.
- The tariff factor. Tariffs of 10-12.5% on 99.4% of U.S. imports necessitate a reevaluation of margin models for retail, consumer goods, and industrial importers.
- Russian assets. The 14% rate and the average rate forecast of 10.5-12.5% for 2027 support long OFZs and heavily leveraged issuers — developers, retail, transportation. A restraining factor is the dividend cutoff season and weak index performance since early July.
- Seasonality. August marks the beginning of the historically weakest three-month period for the U.S. stock market, strengthening arguments for reducing leverage and checking hedging positions ahead of Monday's trading session.
Saturday, July 25, 2026 — a day without quotes, but not without insights. The global market environment enters the last week of the month with three concurrently operating sources of risk: the geopolitical premium in oil, the tariff restructuring of trade flows, and the reevaluation of the artificial intelligence economy. It is advisable for investors to use this pause for scenario planning across each of these contours and to predefine reaction levels — before the FOMC decision and Big Tech earnings reports set the tone for the markets in August.
