Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of March 2–6, 2026: Global PMIs, Eurozone Inflation, ADP, Fed Beige Book, and US Nonfarm Payrolls. Key Reports from S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX
Focus of the Week
The week of March 2–6, 2026, represents a "reality check" for global investors following a series of early macro signals for the year: markets will simultaneously receive fresh assessments of business activity (PMI for manufacturing and services), a preliminary estimate of inflation in the Eurozone, a package of employment data from the US (ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls), as well as the Fed's Beige Book. For currencies and rates, key will be comments from ECB management and the publication of the ECB protocol, while for commodity assets, weekly data on US oil and gas inventories will be critical.
Concurrently, the corporate earnings season continues: the focus will be on reports from S&P 500 (retail, cybersecurity, semiconductors), Euro Stoxx 50 (industry, consumer sector, logistics), as well as significant issuers from Asia and Russia. More important than the actual numbers will be management's forecasts regarding demand, margins, capital expenditures, and the impact of rates on consumption and investment.
Monday, March 2, 2026 — Global Manufacturing PMI and Start of the Week for Risk Assets
The day sets the tone for the week through a synchronized block of manufacturing PMIs in key economies. For investors, this is a "moment of truth" in the cycle: recovery in industry will support cyclicals and commodity markets, while weakness will strengthen demand for defensive sectors and quality.
- Australia: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 01:00 MSK
- Japan: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 03:30 MSK
- India: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 08:00 MSK
- Russia: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 09:00 MSK
- Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 11:30 MSK
- Germany: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 11:55 MSK
- Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 12:00 MSK
- UK: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 12:30 MSK
- Brazil: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 16:00 MSK
- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde — 17:00 MSK
- Canada: Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 17:30 MSK
- US: S&P Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 17:45 MSK
- US: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) — 18:00 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- US: MongoDB (after market close) — indicator of corporate demand for cloud databases and IT budgets.
- US: Norwegian Cruise Line — sensitivity to consumer demand and fuel prices in the leisure segment.
- US: Plug Power — barometer of sentiment in hydrogen and the "green" industrial agenda.
- Europe: Cellnex Telecom — dynamics of telecom infrastructure and debt burden under current rates.
- Asia: Guotai Junan Securities — state of brokerage and investment business in China.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: divergence of PMI/ISM and "price components" in indices — a quick indicator of inflationary pressure; Lagarde's rhetoric is important for the EUR curve and the banking sector.
Tuesday, March 3, 2026 — Preliminary Eurozone Inflation, Merz and Trump Talks, and a Busy Block of Retail Reports
On Tuesday, markets will balance between Eurozone inflation and the corporate picture regarding the American consumer. An additional factor is the geopolitical-economic context of the negotiations in Washington, along with the API oil report from the US.
- India: No trading (Holi)
- Talks between Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump in Washington
- Speech by RBA Governor — 00:10 MSK
- Speech by BoJ Governor — 07:00 MSK
- Turkey: CPI (Feb) — 10:00 MSK
- Eurozone: CPI (Feb, preliminary) — 13:00 MSK
- Brazil: GDP (Q4 2025) — 15:00 MSK
- US: Oil, API Inventories — 00:30 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- US: Target, Best Buy, Macy’s — snapshot of consumer demand, promotional pressures, and inventory levels.
- US: AutoZone — resilience of demand for auto parts as a "quasi-defensive" story within consumer discretionary.
- US: CrowdStrike, Box — trajectory of IT spending and cyber risks in the corporate sector.
- Europe: Thales, Beiersdorf — defense-aerospace cycle and consumer brands in Europe.
- Asia/China: Alibaba — dynamics of e-commerce and cloud as a proxy for China's digital economy.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: in Eurozone CPI, services and core inflation are important; in retail reports — comments on traffic, margins and price elasticity, as well as forecasts for spring.
Wednesday, March 4, 2026 — ADP, ISM Services, and Fed Beige Book Amid Semiconductor Reports
Wednesday is the central day of the week for the US: private ADP employment, services sector (ISM Services), the Fed's Beige Book, and EIA oil inventories create a comprehensive risk package for equities, the dollar, and yields. In Europe, investors will also receive PPI and unemployment data, while Russia will report on inflation.
- Australia: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 01:00 MSK
- Australia: GDP (Q4 2024) — 03:30 MSK
- China: Caixin PMI (Feb) — 04:45 MSK
- India: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 08:00 MSK
- Russia: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 09:00 MSK
- Switzerland: CPI (Feb) — 10:30 MSK
- Germany: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 11:55 MSK
- Eurozone: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 12:00 MSK
- UK: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 12:30 MSK
- Eurozone: PPI (Jan) — 13:00 MSK
- Eurozone: Unemployment (Jan) — 13:00 MSK
- Brazil: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 16:00 MSK
- US: ADP Nonfarm Employment (Feb) — 16:15 MSK
- Canada: Services/Composite PMI (Feb) — 17:30 MSK
- US: Final PMIs (Feb) — 17:45 MSK
- US: ISM Services PMI (Feb) — 18:00 MSK
- US: Oil, EIA Inventories — 18:30 MSK
- Russia: CPI — 19:00 MSK
- US: Fed Beige Book — 22:00 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- US: Broadcom (after market close) — indicator of demand for AI infrastructure (network solutions, ASIC) and corporate capex.
- US: Veeva Systems — digitalization in pharma and sustainability of subscription revenues in software.
- Europe: Bayer, Adidas, Continental — state of consumption and industrial cycles in Germany/Europe.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: the ADP + employment components in ISM Services create expectations for Friday's NFP; in the Beige Book, it's essential to see if wage pressure is increasing and how companies pass the cost increases onto prices.
Thursday, March 5, 2026 — ECB Protocol, US Trade Balance, and Reports from Costco/JD.com, Plus Notable Activity from Russian Issuers
Thursday heightens the "rate" focus: the ECB protocol and Lagarde's speech are essential for reassessing the trajectory of rates, while in the US, trade data and factory orders will add detail to the growth picture. For the commodity market — EIA natural gas inventories.
- ECB: Protocol from the previous meeting — 15:30 MSK
- US: Initial Jobless Claims — 16:30 MSK
- US: Trade Balance (Jan) — 16:30 MSK
- US: Factory Orders (Jan) — 18:00 MSK
- US: Natural Gas, EIA Inventories — 18:30 MSK
- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde — 20:00 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- US: Costco — sensitivity to consumer baskets and food inflation, as well as membership dynamics.
- US: Kroger, Burlington Stores — quality of demand in food retail and discount segment.
- Asia/China: JD.com — consumer cycle in China and competitive pressure in e-commerce.
- Europe: Deutsche Post (DHL) — global logistics and trade flows.
- Canada: Canadian Natural Resources — cash flows and capital discipline in extraction.
- Russia: Moscow Exchange — conference call on FY 2025 IFRS results.
- Russia: MTS — publication/discussion of Q4 and FY 2025 results.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: critical phrases about the "balance of inflation risks" and conditions for easing in the ECB protocol; in retail reports — signals about consumers in the context of rates.
Friday, March 6, 2026 — US Nonfarm Payrolls and the Final Test of the Week for Rates and the Dollar
Friday concentrates risk: Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment in the US will be the primary drivers for short-term expectations regarding the Fed and volatility in equity, bond, and currency markets. In Europe, Eurozone GDP will be reported, and Lagarde's speech will complete the picture for the EUR and European rates.
- Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde — 13:00 MSK
- Eurozone: GDP (Q4 2024) — 13:00 MSK
- US: Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) — 16:30 MSK
- US: Unemployment (Feb) — 16:30 MSK
Key Corporate Reports:
- Europe: Lufthansa — demand for air transportation, fuel costs, and price discipline.
- Latin America: Embraer — order portfolio and delivery dynamics in aviation.
- Canada/US: Algonquin Power & Utilities — sensitivity of utilities to rates and debt structure.
- Russia: Bank "St. Petersburg" — publication of annual IFRS reporting (benchmark for the second-tier banking segment).
What Investors Should Pay Attention To: in addition to the headline NFP, the ratio of job growth and the dynamics of average hourly earnings are important; strong data may support the dollar and increase yields, intensifying pressure on "long" growth stories.
Week’s Results and Recommendations for Investors
- Macro: compare the trajectory of PMIs (manufacturing/services) with inflation components — this will help understand whether the scenario of "growth without inflation" or the risk of "sticky" inflation dominates.
- Rates and Currencies: the ECB's protocol and Lagarde's speeches set the tone for EUR assets; in the US, NFP will determine how quickly the market prices in further Fed steps.
- Commodities: oil and gas react to inventories and demand expectations; PMI data will be particularly crucial for signals on industrial energy consumption.
- Earnings: in the US, monitor margins and forecasts from retailers (Target, Costco) and tech leaders (Broadcom, CrowdStrike) — it is often guidance that drives prices.
- Regional Diversification: Europe (Bayer, Adidas, Deutsche Post) will provide insight into the resilience of demand and logistics given current rates; Russia (MOEX, MTS, Bank "St. Petersburg") offers signals on domestic activity and financial flows.
Practically, the optimal strategy for the week is to maintain focus on data that alters rate expectations and on corporate forecasts. In such an environment, balanced portfolios with quality (cash flow), moderate cyclicality, and controlled duration in equities and bonds will succeed.
