Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Monday, January 5, 2026 PMI, ISM USA, Turkey Inflation

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on January 5, 2026. Japan PMI, Caixin PMI China, CPI Inflation in Turkey, and ISM Manufacturing Index in the USA, Along with the Absence of Major Corporate Reports in the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday opens the new year in global markets with a series of important macroeconomic publications. In Asia, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for Japan and China will set the tone for the region's industry and services. In Europe, the focus will be on the inflation rate in Turkey and investor sentiment in the Eurozone, while in the USA, the key reference point for the day will be the ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The corporate agenda for January 5 is relatively quiet: the earnings season for Q4 2025 has not yet begun, so no major publications are expected from companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, or MOEX. Investors will need to connect the economic signals received—from Asian demand and commodity prices to expectations regarding the Fed's interest rates—to assess the overall market sentiment at the beginning of 2026.

Macroeconomic Calendar (GMT+3)

1. 03:30 — Japan: PMI index in the manufacturing sector (December, final).
2. 04:45 — China: Caixin PMI service and composite indexes (December).
3. 10:00 — Turkey: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December (year-on-year inflation).
4. 11:30 — Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence index (January).
5. 17:45 — USA: final PMI index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global (December).
6. 18:00 — USA: ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector (December).

Asia: PMI in Japan and China

Business activity in Asia will start the year with the PMI readings for December. The final Japan PMI index in manufacturing, according to preliminary data, remained below the 50-point threshold (November: ~48.7; December flash: ~49.7), indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, although at a more moderate pace than the previous month. This reflects the ongoing weakness in external demand for Japanese exports, despite signs of stabilization in domestic demand.

• Japanese Manufacturing PMI—values below 50 signify a contraction in production. An increase in PMI closer to 50 indicates a weakening decline and may provide support for the stocks of Japan's industrial companies and related markets.
• Chinese Caixin Services PMI—is expected to be slightly above 50 (previous value around 52), indicating continued growth in China's services sector. A slowdown in this reading compared to the previous month (52.6 in November) may reflect consumer caution, while steady readings would support optimism regarding demand in China. The composite PMI for China will combine trends in manufacturing and services, providing a broader view of the economy.

The PMI data from Asia will signal to investors how the region's largest economies are finishing the year: improved figures could support commodity markets and the currencies of developing countries, while negative surprises would heighten concerns about slowing global demand.

Turkey: CPI Inflation Dynamics

The year-on-year inflation rate in Turkey for December will be one of the key indicators of the day for EM markets. Consumer price growth is expected to slow to around 30–32% y/y (compared to approximately 31% in November), which will be the lowest level in several years. This slowdown is linked to the tightening of monetary policy by the new leadership of the Central Bank of Turkey in the second half of 2025.

• Slowing CPI—continued disinflation will affirm the effectiveness of the recent sharp interest rate hikes (the CBRT rate was raised to double-digit levels). Easing price pressures will bolster expectations that the regulator may shift to a softer policy in 2026, which is positive for bonds and stocks in Turkey.
• Inflation Structure—investors will analyze which components are driving disinflation. Slowing growth in food and energy prices will reduce socio-economic tension, while a decline in core inflation (excluding volatile components) will indicate a sustainable improvement in the situation.
• Market Reaction—particular attention will be paid to the Turkish lira and the banking sector. Moderate CPI data may strengthen the lira and support the shares of Turkish banks and companies (on expectations of rate cuts), whereas an unexpected surge in inflation could trigger sell-offs in Turkish assets due to fears of further policy tightening.

Europe: Sentix and Investor Sentiment

In Europe, there are few major macroeconomic statistics released on Monday; however, the Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone for January will be published. This leading indicator reflects the mood of financial participants regarding the Eurozone economy. In the previous month, the Sentix value was −6.2 (amid falling energy prices and hopes for a soft landing of the economy).

• Sentix Expectations—the forecast implies a slight improvement in sentiment, with a possible rise in the index to the region of −5…−4. Although the index remains in negative territory (indicating a preponderance of pessimists), its increase signals a partial recovery of investor confidence in the stability of the Eurozone economy.
• Impact on EU Markets—a moderately positive Sentix could support European stock indices (Euro Stoxx 50 and national indices) at the beginning of the year, especially sectors sensitive to cycles (banks, industry). Conversely, a weak index would reinforce defensive sentiment, increasing interest in German bonds and resilient "defensive" stocks.

Overall, Sentix will set the tone ahead of the release of more significant data in Europe later in the week (including preliminary inflation assessments in key countries). Investors from CIS countries focused on the European market will consider Sentix as a barometer of the overall market environment in the EU.

USA: ISM Index and the Manufacturing Sector

In the USA, the ISM Manufacturing Index for December will be published—one of the first key indicators of the state of the US economy in the new year. The industrial PMI from the Institute for Supply Management is expected to be in the range of 47–49 points (November: 48.2), likely indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector (values below 50 signify a decline). However, markets will be looking for signs of changing dynamics in the report—possible nearing a turning point or deepening recession.

• New Orders and Production—key components of ISM. In the previous month, the new orders index was significantly below 50, reflecting weak demand for goods. If December sees a rise in new orders closer to 50, it would be the first signal of industrial revival. Conversely, a decline would indicate continued weak demand, especially from exports.
• Prices and Inventories—the prices paid sub-index will show how production costs are behaving. Slowing growth in raw material and component prices indicates easing inflationary pressures in manufacturing, which is positive for company margins. Data on inventories and backlogs will provide insight into whether companies are cutting production in anticipation of demand recovery.
• USA Market Reaction—for investors, the ISM index will be an indicator of sentiment in the industrial sector, which may affect the dynamics of Wall Street indices. A stronger-than-expected PMI (closer to 50) could support shares of cyclical companies (industrials, materials) and at the same time increase Treasury yields (against a backdrop of reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts). Conversely, if the index disappoints and falls further, there might be a heightened discussion about potential stimuli or rate cuts—this could weaken the US dollar and lead to a rise in gold prices on expectations of a softer policy.

It is worth noting that alongside the ISM, the final value of the S&P Global PMI for the USA for December (manufacturing) is released; however, it carries less influence since preliminary figures are already known. Investors will mainly focus on the ISM report and the subsequent market reaction—from the S&P 500 to US Treasury yields.

Reporting: Before Market Open (BMO, USA and Asia)

• Absence of Major Quarterly Reports: No company in the major indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX) will publish financial reports on January 5. The earnings season for Q4 2025 has not yet started, so investors are temporarily shifting their focus to macroeconomics.
• US Automakers—data on car sales for December and the entire year 2025 from leading automakers (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, etc.) is expected. These figures are not traditional earnings reports but will provide insight into demand in the US car market at year-end, especially for electric vehicles. Strong holiday sales may support stocks in the auto sector.
• Chinese EV Manufacturers—major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers (NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto) traditionally disclose supply data for December in early January. High growth rates in EV sales in China at year-end will highlight sustained demand for EVs and could positively impact the stock prices of these companies on the exchange (as well as related markets, such as battery manufacturers).
• Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn)—the Taiwanese technology giant and key electronics manufacturer (iPhone assembler) will release monthly revenue data. The report for December is expected on January 5: investors will look at how strong the year-on-year revenue growth was during the holiday season. Hon Hai's figures serve as a barometer for global demand for electronics and gadgets: strong December sales will indicate a successful season for electronics manufacturers, while weak data could temporarily cool appetite for the sector's stocks.

Reporting: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• After the closure of US stock exchanges on January 5, there are no planned financial reports from major public companies in the USA. Investors are using this pause before the earnings season to analyze macroeconomic signals and prepare for the flow of corporate news, which will intensify in the second week of January.

Daily Summary: What to Watch for Investors

• 1) PMIs in Asia: The business activity metrics from Japan and China will serve as an early indicator of global industrial health. Improved PMIs will support commodities and currencies of developing markets, whereas weak data will amplify concerns about demand for raw materials and exports from Asian countries.
• 2) Inflation in Turkey: Ongoing disinflation (decreasing CPI) will strengthen confidence in the economic policy of the Turkish authorities and could lead to an increase in Turkish bonds and stocks prices. However, an unexpected jump in inflation could cause volatility—weakening the lira and prompting investors to reassess risks in Turkey's market.
• 3) ISM Manufacturing Index (USA): This report could set direction for the US and global markets. If the ISM exceeds expectations, investors are likely to revise their rate hike forecasts (towards a more "hawkish" Fed), reflecting increases in bond yields and supporting cyclical stocks. Conversely, if the data disappoints, expectations for policy easing will rise—the dollar may weaken and protective assets (gold, bonds) could become more appealing.

In conclusion, the first trading Monday of 2026 offers investors a comprehensive snapshot of economic trends—from Asia to America. The outcomes of these events will determine the level of risk appetite in the markets: balanced, moderately positive data could provide markets with momentum for growth at the beginning of the year, while negative surprises may prompt participants to take a more cautious stance, awaiting further signals from upcoming reports and statistics.