Economic Events and Corporate Reports - January 9, 2026: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Inflation in China and Germany

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on January 9, 2026: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Inflation in China and Brazil, U.S. Consumer Sentiment, and Company Results from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Friday presents a rich backdrop for global markets: in Asia, attention is focused on China's inflation data, which will indicate the state of domestic demand in the country. In Europe, the dynamics of Germany's industrial production will reflect the health of the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. The key driver of the day will be the release of the December U.S. labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls), which could significantly influence expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and investor sentiment. Additionally, consumer sentiment and housing activity indicators in the U.S. will be released. On the corporate side, the new earnings season begins: several major companies from the U.S., Europe, and Asia will present their results, providing the first benchmarks for business profitability at the start of 2026. It is crucial for investors to assess these disparate data points in conjunction, tracking interconnections: U.S. labor market ↔ Federal Reserve policy ↔ bond yields ↔ dynamics of equities and commodities.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 04:30 — China: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
2. 10:00 — Germany: Industrial production for November.
3. 15:00 — Brazil: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
4. 16:30 — U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls (December).
5. 16:30 — U.S.: Unemployment rate (December).
6. 16:30 — U.S.: Housing Starts for October.
7. 18:00 — U.S.: Consumer Inflation Expectations (January, preliminary).
8. 18:00 — U.S.: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (January, preliminary).
9. 21:00 — U.S.: Baker Hughes report on active drilling rigs.

What to Watch in U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

• The pace of job creation and unemployment dynamics are key indicators for the Federal Reserve. A surprisingly strong increase in hiring will reinforce expectations of further policy tightening (putting pressure on bonds and stocks), whereas weak data will ease market sentiment.
• Growth in average hourly earnings is a critical indicator of inflationary pressures from the labor market. Accelerating wages may alarm markets and bolster hawkish sentiment, while a slowdown in wage growth could support hopes for a pause in interest rate hikes.
• Market reaction: Treasury yields and the dollar exchange rate are likely to respond sensitively to the U.S. report. Rising yields typically pressure high-tech stocks and gold, whereas a weak release may weaken the dollar and propel equity indices.

Inflation in China and Brazil

• China: CPI dynamics near zero signals weak domestic demand. December data will reveal whether deflation risks persist in the Chinese economy. Low inflation heightens expectations for further stimulus measures from the People's Bank of China and impacts commodity markets through potential demand decreases from China.
• Brazil: Year-on-year inflation slowed to around the target 4% by the end of 2025 due to the Central Bank’s tight policy. Another decrease in CPI in December paves the way for further easing of monetary conditions in Brazil. This data is crucial for investors in emerging markets (EM) as it impacts bond and currency rates in the region.

Europe: Germany's Industry Under Scrutiny

• Germany: The dynamics of industrial production for November will reflect the condition of Europe's vital manufacturing sector. Continued declines will signal ongoing challenges for German exports (automotive, machinery), while an unexpected increase may indicate gradual stabilization of the Eurozone's largest economy.
• Market impact: Strong data from Germany will support the euro and shares of cyclical companies (DAX, Euro Stoxx 50). Conversely, disappointing statistics may intensify pessimistic sentiment in European markets: investors could shift to defensive assets, and expectations from the ECB may become softer.

U.S.: Housing Market and Consumer Confidence

• New housing starts: Housing Starts figures (even released with a lag) reflect activity in the U.S. real estate market. Weak data on new home permits may suggest the impact of high Fed rates on the construction sector, while growth in this metric will indicate sustained housing demand despite high borrowing costs.
• Consumer sentiment: The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for January will showcase household sentiment at the year’s start. An increase in the indicator and a decline in inflation expectations will bolster confidence in consumer spending, while a decrease in sentiments may signal risks for retail sales and the economy overall.

Corporate Earnings: Before Market Open (BMO, U.S., Europe, and Asia)

• Constellation Brands (STZ) — an American alcoholic beverages manufacturer. Focus: Growth in the beer segment due to heightened holiday demand, operating margin dynamics, and an updated financial year forecast (considering cost inflation and consumer trends).
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) — the largest pharmacy chain (Dow Jones index). Key points: Comparable sales in the U.S. and UK for the holiday quarter, progress on cost-cutting and pharmacy business optimization program. Investors will assess the retail pharmacy margin and management's comments regarding 2026 prospects.
• TSMC (TSM) — a Taiwanese semiconductor giant, will publish revenue figures for December. These figures effectively precede Q4 results: growth in sales will indicate a recovery in global chip demand (AI, auto, electronics), whereas a decline in sales will amplify concerns about a slowing technology cycle.
• J Sainsbury (SBRY.L) — one of the leading British retail chains. Will present the results of the Christmas quarter (Q3). Attention: comparable store sales dynamics in food categories, the inflation impact on shopping patterns, and potential adjustments to the annual profit forecast post-holidays.
• Yaskawa Electric (6506.T) — a Japanese leader in robotics and industrial automation. Reports for Q3 of the 2025 financial year. Important metrics: Volume of new orders for robotic systems (especially from automotive and electronics sectors), business profitability, and any changes to the annual forecast. Yaskawa's results set the tone for the Asian technology sector.

Corporate Earnings: After Market Close (AMC, U.S.)

• There are no major corporations scheduled to release earnings after market close on January 9. Only a few small- to medium-cap companies (such as Anixa Biosciences in biotech and RCI Hospitality in entertainment) will report their quarterly results, but their outcomes are unlikely to impact the broader market.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: As of January 9, there are no significant earnings releases from key companies in the Eurozone, so the tone for European markets will be set by macro news and external factors. Investors are monitoring responses to U.S. and Chinese statistics, as well as the first trading reports from British retailers (such as Sainsbury's) to gauge consumer demand in the region.
• Nikkei 225 / Japan: The quarterly earnings season begins in Tokyo. Releases from companies like Yaskawa Electric and other manufacturers will provide early signals for the Japanese market. Strong results will support the Nikkei 225, especially shares in the technology and industrial sectors, while weak numbers may heighten investor caution. In addition, the yen's exchange rate and the Bank of Japan's policy remain background factors for index dynamics.
• MOEX / Russia: Following the New Year holidays, the Russian market returns to activity, but there are no significant corporate earnings reports for January 9. The peak of annual financial reporting from major Russian issuers traditionally occurs in February-March. Thus, in the short term, the Moscow Exchange will primarily focus on external signals — oil prices, global risk appetite, and currency dynamics.

Day's Summary: Key Points for Investors

• 1) U.S. Labor Market: December's Nonfarm Payrolls (along with the unemployment rate) are the main trigger of the day for markets. Particular focus is on wage growth; overheating in the labor market could lead to rising yields and pressure on stocks. It is not surprising if indices and currencies exhibit sharp fluctuations after the report’s release.
• 2) Inflation Trends: Data from China and Brazil help assess global price pressures. Low CPI in China enhances dovish sentiment, while moderate inflation in Brazil confirms the controllability of the situation in emerging markets.
• 3) Europe: Germany’s statistics will clarify how confidently the EU is entering the new year. Improvement in indicators will support the Euro Stoxx 50 and EUR exchange rate, while weakness will heighten expectations for easing ECB policy.
• 4) Corporate Results: The results from Constellation Brands, Walgreens, Sainsbury's (and other reports of the day) will provide insight into the state of demand and margins across various sectors — from consumer goods to retail. Additionally, data from technology companies in Asia (like TSMC) may shift investors' focus from macroeconomics to corporate stories in individual sectors.
• 5) Risk Management: The day is loaded with events, and volatility spikes are possible. It is recommended to set risk levels in advance and use limit orders and hedging tools to protect the portfolio.