Economic Events and Corporate Reports July 26, 2026: Fed, Big Tech, Oil

Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on July 26, 2026: Markets Closed, But the Week's Agenda Is Set — Federal Reserve Decision, Bank of Japan Meeting, Quarterly Results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Shell, and Rio Tinto, as Well as the Moscow Exchange's Response to the Central Bank of Russia's Key Rate Cut

Sunday, July 26, 2026 — a day without trading and macroeconomic statistics. Global markets are closed, the economic calendar is empty, and in Russia, they celebrate Navy Day. However, for investors, this is not a pause but a window for preparation: ahead lies one of the busiest weeks of the year. The economic events and corporate reports from July 27 to July 31 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan meeting, the release of U.S. GDP for the second quarter and PCE deflator, as well as quarterly results from companies accounting for a significant portion of the S&P 500 capitalization. The backdrop remains the ongoing conflict around Iran, keeping Brent oil prices near triple-digit levels.

Results of the Trading Week in Global Markets

The week ended mixed and generally negative. On Friday, July 24, the S&P 500 gained a symbolic 0.05% to close at 7,411.98 points, the Dow Jones rose by 0.46% to 51,947.25, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.64% to 24,975.82. Over the five sessions, all three American indices ended in the red, with Nasdaq losing about 2%.

• Main Shock of the Week — a sell-off on Thursday, when the "magnificent seven" collectively lost about $800 billion in market capitalization.
• Alphabet dropped by approximately 7%, while Tesla fell by 14%: both companies reported negative free cash flow for the quarter amid a sharp increase in AI infrastructure investments.
• Intel lost nearly 8% on Friday despite reporting above expectations — the market punishes spending rather than revenue.
• Apple, on the other hand, gained around 3.5%, supporting the Dow and hitting historical highs earlier in July.

Meanwhile, the earnings season is strong: out of the first 95 companies in the S&P 500 to report, about 88% exceeded profit forecasts. The gap between positive figures and weak price reactions is a key signal for investors: the market is overvaluing capital expenditures rather than profit.

Oil, Gas, and Gold: Geopolitical Premiums in Prices

Commodity markets remain the primary channel for transmitting geopolitical risk into the global economy. On Friday, Brent fell approximately 4% to close around $97 per barrel — the largest daily drop since late June, but weekly prices rose by more than 12%.

1. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, and some export flows from the Persian Gulf have been redirected.
2. Attacks by Houthi fighters on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have opened a second front of logistical risks and increased freight rates.
3. Gold remains near historical highs (around $4,100 per ounce), reflecting sustained demand for safe-haven assets.
4. The refining margin for diesel and jet fuel in Europe remains anomalously high amid low inventories.

Central Banks: The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Central Bank of Russia

The week of July 27-31 is a week of monetary policy.

• U.S. Federal Reserve is meeting on July 28-29. The rate is in the range of 3.50-3.75%, and new forecasts (dot plot) will not be published. Futures imply a roughly 64% chance of keeping the rate unchanged and about a 35% probability of a 25 basis point increase. A key market event will be the press conference by regulator head Kevin Warsh.
• Bank of Japan will meet on July 30-31 and publish its quarterly Outlook Report. The rate, after a June hike, stands at 1.0%; consensus expects a pause, but comments on inflation could sharply shift the yen's course.
• Central Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum on July 24. This marks the tenth consecutive cut and fifth in 2026. The regulator provided a neutral signal, noting rising inflation expectations and accelerating prices for fuel and agricultural products amid stable inflation in the range of 4-5% year-on-year.

Corporate Reports for the Week: U.S. and S&P 500 Index

The earnings calendar for American public companies for the upcoming week is the busiest of the quarter:

• Wednesday, July 29: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Public Storage, Humana, Boston Scientific, Biogen, Cognizant.
• Thursday, July 30: Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Valero Energy, Regeneron, Exelon, Xcel Energy.
• Throughout the week: Procter & Gamble, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Johnson Controls, Amphenol, Garmin, Old Dominion Freight Line, Visa, Coca-Cola, PayPal.

The key question for investors is not revenue but capital expenditures of hyperscalers and dynamics in Azure and AWS cloud segments.

Europe: Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, and Energy Profit Discrepancy

European second-quarter earnings indicate an aggregate profit growth of around 17%, but nearly all this increase is provided by the energy sector. TotalEnergies reported an adjusted net profit of about $6 billion (+67% YoY), while Repsol reported €1.84 billion compared to €598 million a year earlier. For the industrial sector, airlines, and consumer sector, oil is a cost factor.

This week, earnings reports from AstraZeneca and Vodafone (July 27), Barclays, GSK, Unilever (July 28), Airbus, Rio Tinto, Standard Chartered, Reckitt, Glencore (July 29), Shell, Lloyds, Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems, Anglo American, British American Tobacco, London Stock Exchange Group (July 30), and NatWest, IAG, ITV, Taylor Wimpey (July 31) are expected. The composite PMI for Germany in July returned to growth territory (51.2), slightly improving the picture for the Eurozone.

Asia: Nikkei 225, Yen, and Chinese Demand

The Japanese market is holding near record levels, and a weak yen continues to support exporters: some investment houses have revised their USD/JPY forecast towards further weakening of the Japanese currency. Critical factors for Asian markets will include the Bank of Japan's decision, data on industrial production and inflation in Tokyo, as well as the response of Chinese metallurgists and oil refiners to rising raw material costs.

Russia: Moscow Exchange Index Following Rate Cut

The Russian stock market saw its first week of growth in almost twenty weeks. The Moscow Exchange index, which fell below 2,100 points before the Central Bank meeting, recovered its losses after the rate decision. Leaders on Friday included "Rusagro" (+35.7% on corporate news), Moscow Exchange (+5.7%), MMK (+4.9%), "En+ Group" (+4.2%), as well as "PhosAgro", "Yandex", and NLMK.

The corporate events calendar on MOEX includes:

• July 27 — "Norilsk Nickel": production results for the first half of 2026.
• July 28 — TGK-1 and "All Instruments": operational results for six months.
• July 29 — "Acron": annual shareholders' meeting regarding dividends (235 rubles per share).

From already published reports: net profit of "Novatek" under IFRS for the half-year decreased to 218.6 billion rubles. An additional factor is the extension of the OFAC license for negotiations on the sale of "Lukoil's" international assets until August 22, 2026.

Macro Statistics for the Week

1. U.S. GDP for the second quarter (first estimate) — Thursday.
2. Core PCE deflator for June — a key inflation benchmark for the Federal Reserve.
3. Personal income and expenditures in the U.S., unemployment claims.
4. U.S. consumer confidence and Eurozone business sentiment indices.
5. Tokyo inflation and industrial production in Japan.

Summary of the Day: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

1. Capital expenditures are more important than revenue. The market's reaction to Alphabet and Tesla's reports indicated that investors are willing to punish aggressive AI investments even with strong operational results. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple will test whether these investments translate into cloud revenue growth.
2. Double risk from oil. Brent near $100 is both a support for oil and gas exporters (including the Russian market) and an inflation tax for industry, transport, and consumers. Assess where your portfolio stands on this balance.
3. Fed's decision without dot plot. The absence of new forecasts increases the importance of the statement's wording and the press conference. The rate hike scenario, which the market estimates at about one-third probability, is underestimated in the pricing of risky assets.
4. New U.S. tariffs. The tariffs of 10-12.5% that have come into effect for major trading partners will gradually manifest in importers' margins and autumn inflation statistics.
5. Russian Market: The Softening Cycle Continues. The cut in the key rate to 14% reduces funding costs and enhances the attractiveness of stocks relative to deposits, but the neutral signal from the Central Bank and rising inflation expectations warrant caution in long OFZs.
6. Weekend Homework. Check the diversification across regions and sectors, the share of defensive assets, and stop-loss levels before the markets open on Monday — the upcoming week promises heightened volatility.