Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, December 24, 2025. Christmas Eve: Bank of Japan's Protocol, US Jobless Claims, EIA Oil Report, Inflation Data in Russia.
On Wednesday, global markets are approaching Christmas Eve with a mixed sentiment: some exchanges are closed, while trading in the US and several other countries will be halved. Nevertheless, crucial economic events remain on the agenda. In Asia, investors are keeping an eye on the protocol from the latest Bank of Japan meeting, which could shed light on future monetary policy directions following the historic rate hike. In the US, the key release of the day will be the weekly initial jobless claims – an important labor market indicator released during the holiday period. In the commodities market, the focus is on the US EIA's oil inventory report, which traditionally sets the short-term tone for oil prices. In Russia, closer to the evening, industrial production and consumer inflation figures will be released, providing insights into the Russian economy's status at the end of the year.
Global corporate reporting is experiencing a lull: there are no significant releases in the US and Europe due to the holidays, while in Asia and the Moscow Exchange, only selected results are being published. Investors will need to consider the low liquidity and high volatility in the thin market during the holidays, carefully monitoring even minor data points – unexpected deviations can disproportionately impact market sentiment.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 02:50 — Japan: Release of the protocol from the latest Bank of Japan meeting.
- 16:30 — USA: Initial jobless claims (week).
- 18:30 — USA: Weekly oil and petroleum product inventories according to EIA.
- 19:00 — Russia: Industrial production, November 2025.
- 19:00 — Russia: Consumer inflation (CPI).
Markets on Holiday: Christmas Closures
- Exchanges Closed: On December 24, financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Argentina, and Brazil will be closed for Christmas celebrations.
- Reduced Sessions: Trading sessions in the US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand will conclude around noon (early market close).
Bank of Japan's Protocol: A Look After the Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised markets with a tightening of policy at its last meeting, raising the key interest rate to 0.75% – a three-decade high. The protocol from the meeting published today will provide investors with a detailed insight into the regulator's discussions. Key points to clarify include:
- Were there disagreements among BoJ board members regarding the rate hike and inflation risk assessments?
- Are there any anticipated changes in the yield curve control (YCC) policy in light of rising yields and inflation exceeding target levels?
- How does the BoJ evaluate the yen's course and external factors: the protocol may contain hints on how the regulator perceives the impact of a weak yen on the economy and prices.
Any signals regarding BoJ's future steps will influence the yen's dynamics and sentiment in the Asian market. So far, the Bank's guidance tone remains cautious, indicating dependence on incoming economic data from Japan for future actions.
US Labor Market: Jobless Claims in Focus
Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US serve as an operational indicator of the labor market's health. Data from the past week is being released amid the holiday season, where statistical noise typically increases. Investors need to monitor the trend:
- If the number of new claims remains around multi-year lows (approximately 200,000–230,000), it confirms the labor market's resilience and supports positive sentiment in the S&P 500.
- An unexpected increase in claims may signal a cooling of hiring and early signs of rising unemployment. However, solitary spikes during holiday weeks are often distorted by seasonal factors.
As the Federal Reserve focuses on employment stability when making decisions regarding rates, even secondary statistics like jobless claims can significantly affect market expectations concerning the regulator's policies, especially in the event of unexpected deviations from forecasts.
EIA Oil Inventory Report
The US Department of Energy will release its weekly report on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories (EIA). This release traditionally comes out on Wednesdays and can impact WTI and Brent oil prices in the short term. Key aspects of the report include:
- Change in Oil Inventories: A decrease in inventories typically indicates strong demand or supply constraints, supporting price increases. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inventories can signal weak demand or oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices.
- Gasoline and Distillate Stocks: Fuel inventory trends are particularly significant in the winter months. Reductions in gasoline or diesel stocks amid holiday transport can drive energy prices up, while excess fuel stocks can exert downward pressure.
Given the approaching year-end, volatility in the oil market may increase due to low liquidity. Investors in commodity assets should brace for sharp price movements in case of unexpected EIA data.
Industrial Production and Inflation in Russia
Russian macroeconomic indicators will be released in the evening and are expected to draw significant attention from the local market (MOEX index) and the ruble currency market:
- Industrial Production (November): The industrial production data will clarify the economy's adaptation to sanctions conditions. Moderate annual growth would indicate the beginning of the sector's recovery, while a decline would suggest ongoing pressure on the manufacturing sector.
- Inflation Indicators (CPI): Consumer inflation in Russia has shown a slowdown in recent months after a spike earlier in the year. The new data will reveal whether the trend of decreasing price growth has been maintained. For the Bank of Russia, which recently lowered the key rate to 16%, continued disinflation will bolster arguments for further policy easing in 2026. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it may constrain opportunities for rate reductions.
The reaction of the Russian stock market and the ruble's exchange rate to these figures will depend on how the data deviates from forecasts. Strong industrial results and low inflation could support local companies' stocks and strengthen the ruble, while weak figures may heighten investor concerns about the prospects of the Russian economy.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- USA (S&P 500): No significant corporate reporting is planned in the S&P 500 for December 24. Investors in the US will focus on the day's macro statistics, ending trading early due to the holiday.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): In Europe, Christmas holidays mean no corporate releases from the blue chips of Euro Stoxx 50. European markets are closed, and their benchmarks will only be shaped by external factors such as currency dynamics and commodity prices.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market (Nikkei 225) operates as usual amid a general global calm. Tokyo continues its reporting season: for instance, the pharmacy chain Kusuri No Aoki Holdings will publish its financial results on December 24. Although these events are local, they reflect the state of consumer demand in the region.
- Russia (MOEX): On the Moscow Exchange, most companies have already released their financial results for the third quarter, so there are practically no new corporate reports on December 24. The main annual results of the largest Russian issuers will be published after the New Year celebrations, following the standard reporting schedule.
Day's Outcomes: What Investors Should Focus On
- Low Market Liquidity: The pre-holiday day with reduced sessions and closed exchanges will lead to decreased trading volumes. In such conditions, even minor news can provoke disproportionately strong price fluctuations. Investors should exercise caution when placing orders and consider possible volatility spikes.
- Bank of Japan Policy: Details from the BoJ protocol will indicate how prepared the regulator is to continue tightening its policy. If the document hints at further rate hikes or changes to YCC, it will influence the yen's rate and set the tone for trading in Asia.
- US Data: Labor market metrics in the US (jobless claims) will serve as a barometer of economic activity at year-end. Sharp deviations may trigger a reassessment of Fed rate expectations and could sway the S&P 500 index, although reactions during the shortened session may be muted.
- Oil Market: The EIA inventory report will come out in a thin market, potentially leading to heightened price reactions. Oil market volatility could affect commodity currencies (e.g., the Canadian dollar) and energy sector stocks globally.
- Russian Macrostats: Industrial and inflation data in Russia will impact the MOEX index and the ruble's exchange rate. Strong results will support expectations for further rate cuts from the Bank of Russia and improve investor sentiment, while weak figures may heighten caution and apply pressure on the market.
