Economic Events and Corporate Reports — March 4, 2026 S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

Economic Calendar and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, March 4, 2026: Global PMI, ADP and ISM Services in the U.S., EIA Oil Inventories, CPI Inflation in Russia, and the Fed's Beige Book. Key Drivers for S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

Wednesday, March 4, 2026, is poised to create a comprehensive macro narrative for global markets: in Asia, investors will compare business activity dynamics (PMI) with Australia's growth rates; in Europe, they'll evaluate demand resilience through service PMI, unemployment, and producer price inflation (PPI); while the U.S. presents several volatility drivers—ADP employment, S&P Global PMI, ISM Services PMI, and the Fed's Beige Book. For investors in the CIS, the day holds additional significance due to the release of inflation (CPI) in Russia and the correlation of "oil - ruble - yields" amid the EIA inventory report.

On the corporate front, attention shifts to the earnings reports of major public companies: the technology sector in the U.S. is setting the tone through Broadcom's results, while in Europe, Bayer and Adidas are key reports. The composition of macro indicators combined with corporate forecasts can significantly impact the short-term direction of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and the MOEX index.

Macro Economics Calendar (MSK)

1. 01:00 — Australia: Services/Composite PMI (February).
2. 03:30 — Australia: GDP (Q4 2024).
3. 04:45 — China: Caixin Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI (February).
4. 08:00 — India: Services/Composite PMI (February).
5. 09:00 — Russia: Services/Composite PMI (February).
6. 10:30 — Switzerland: Consumer Inflation CPI (February).
7. 11:55 — Germany: Services/Composite PMI (February).
8. 12:00 — Eurozone: Services/Composite PMI (February).
9. 12:30 — UK: Services/Composite PMI (February).
10. 13:00 — Eurozone: Producer Price Index PPI (January).
11. 13:00 — Eurozone: Unemployment Rate (January).
12. 16:00 — Brazil: Services/Composite PMI (February).
13. 16:15 — U.S.: ADP Nonfarm Employment (February).
14. 17:30 — Canada: Services/Composite PMI (February).
15. 17:45 — U.S.: S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite PMI (February).
16. 18:00 — U.S.: ISM Services PMI (February).
17. 18:30 — U.S.: EIA Weekly Oil Inventories.
18. 19:00 — Russia: Consumer Inflation CPI.
19. 22:00 — U.S.: Fed's Beige Book.

Asia-Pacific Focus: Australia, China, India

Asia begins the day with three clusters of data. Firstly, service PMI and composite indices provide an immediate signal regarding demand and business activity at the start of the year. Secondly, Australia's GDP serves as a marker for the resilience of the domestic cycle and the economy's sensitivity to rates and external trade. Thirdly, the Caixin PMI from China has traditionally been viewed by the market as a barometer for the private sector, and any surprises can quickly reflect in industrial metal prices and sentiment in Asian equities.

• For Nikkei 225 and Asian Markets: Strong PMIs from China and India raise expectations for regional demand and support cyclical sectors.
• For Commodities and Energy Sector: An improvement in PMIs in Asia generally boosts energy import expectations, impacting oil prices and energy company valuations.
• For Currencies: The combination of Australia's GDP and risk appetite in Asia influences the dynamics of commodity currencies and indirectly affects dollar/euro flows through investments in safe assets.

Europe: Service PMI, PPI, and Unemployment as a Test of Cycle Resilience

The European bloc revolves around three questions: how stable is the service sector, is there cost pressure at the producer level, and how is the labor market changing? Service PMI for Germany, the eurozone, and the UK sets the foundational tone for European indices, including Euro Stoxx 50. Eurozone PPI helps assess the "pass-through" of price pressures to the next stage—consumer inflation, crucial for rate expectations and bond yields. Unemployment serves as a key indicator for consumer demand and the resilience of corporate revenues in retail, transport, and banks.

For investors, it is practical to keep a close watch on the chain: PMI → growth expectations → corporate revenue forecasts → multiples. If the PMI indicates a slowdown, the market tends to reassess cyclical sectors and increase demand for "quality" and defensive industries.

U.S.: ADP, PMI, and ISM Services—Main Source of Intraday Volatility

American statistics on March 4 present a set of indicators that the market often uses as a "rehearsal" before the official labor market report and as a benchmark for expectations regarding Fed policy. ADP reflects hiring dynamics in the private sector and can sharply move UST yields and the dollar. Next, S&P Global PMI and especially ISM Services PMI deliver a qualitative picture of demand in the services sector, which dominates the U.S. economy and shapes the fundamental dynamics of service inflation.

Reading the ISM Services PMI

• New Orders — a signal for future revenues of service and logistics companies.
• Prices Paid — an indicator of inflationary pressure, critical for rate expectations.
• Employment — confirmation/contradiction of the ADP narrative and labor market expectations.

In the evening, the Fed's Beige Book may amplify or soften market reactions: if regional reports indicate cooling demand and normalization of price pressures, it often supports risk appetite; if the focus shifts to sustained inflation and labor shortages—it increases the likelihood of a more hawkish tone and pressure on growth stocks.

Oil and Commodities: EIA Inventory Report as a Driver for Energy and Inflation Expectations

The weekly EIA oil inventories (18:30 MSK) are traditionally a high-volatility event for Brent and WTI, and subsequently for energy companies and inflation expectations. It is crucial for the markets to consider not only the direction of crude oil inventories but also the details:

• Gasoline and Distillate Inventories — an indirect indicator of demand and fuel consumption seasonality.
• Refinery Utilization — a marker for refining margins and petroleum product supply.
• Export/Import — a factor in the short-term balance that influences spreads and futures curve dynamics.

For CIS investors, the transmission channel is vital: oil → currency revenue of exporters → ruble expectations → valuation of Russian assets and the MOEX index. Even with neutral inventory data, volatility in energy sector stocks may arise if the market reassesses demand outlook in light of the PMIs from Asia and the U.S.

Russia: Services PMI and CPI as Benchmarks for the Ruble, OFZ, and MOEX

Data on Services PMI (09:00 MSK) and especially CPI (19:00 MSK) forms the foundation for expectations regarding monetary policy. For the Russian market, this impacts three key channels:

1. Ruble Exchange Rate — through expectations regarding real rates and capital flows.
2. OFZ Yields — through the reassessment of the key rate trajectory and inflation risks.
3. Stocks (MOEX) — through the discounting of future cash flows and sector rotation (banks/retail/exporters).

If the CPI comes in above expectations, the market tends to price in a longer period of high rates, which supports yields and may pressure interest-sensitive sectors. Conversely, softer inflation increases the likelihood of renewed interest in "long" assets and dividend stories.

Corporate Reports: U.S. (Key Companies of the Day)

The middle of the week is rich with reports from companies that can influence sector dynamics within the S&P 500 and risk appetite in the technology segment. It is essential for investors to assess not only profits and revenues but also guidance, margin levels, and management comments on demand.

After U.S. Market Close (AMC)

• Broadcom — a technology benchmark for AI infrastructure and networking solutions; the market will focus on order dynamics and revenue forecasts.
• Okta — an indicator of corporate IT budgets and demand for cyber and identity solutions; emphasis on customer retention and subscription growth rates.
• Veeva Systems — a litmus test for vertical SaaS in pharmaceuticals and biotech; growth rates and revenue quality are important.

During the Day/Before Opening (Consumer Demand Focus)

• Abercrombie & Fitch — a marker of consumer demand and promotional pressure in the apparel segment.
• Bath & Body Works — an indicator of consumer spending and margin dynamics in retail.
• Brown-Forman — reflects consumption trends in brand categories and price elasticity of demand.

Corporate Reports: Europe, Middle East, and Other Markets

In Europe, the reporting on March 4 concentrates on major names sensitive to the consumer cycle and industrial conditions, which is important for Euro Stoxx 50 and related indices.

• Bayer — an assessment of pharmaceutical/agricultural directions, debt load, and margin prospects.
• adidas — a signal regarding the global consumer, regional sales dynamics, and the impact of currency exchange rates on profit.
• Dassault Aviation — an indicator of investment demand and order portfolio in aviation.
• ACWA Power — a focus on capital-intensive energy and project implementation speeds (important for assessing global infrastructure trends).

Regarding Asian markets (including Nikkei 225), the day is more dependent on the macro backdrop of PMI and currency dynamics; the earnings season continues, but key narratives are often overshadowed by U.S. statistics and commodity fluctuations. On the Russian market, March 4 sees a shift in focus towards macro indicators (PMI and CPI), while corporate disclosures from major issuers tend to be more specific and require careful monitoring of disclosure records.

What to Watch for Investors on Wednesday, March 4, 2026

1. Global Synchronization of PMI: Compare China/India/Europe — a quick indicator of whether global demand is strengthening or if the economy is entering a cooling phase.
2. The U.S. as the "Center of Gravity" for the Day: Reactions to ADP and ISM Services can swiftly change expectations about the Fed, yields, and the dollar—thereby affecting valuations of growth stocks and commodity assets.
3. Oil and EIA Report: Expect significant moves in energy; consider the influence on inflation expectations and currencies of commodity-exporting countries.
4. Russia: CPI and Rates: Inflation sets the tone for the ruble, OFZ, and MOEX; evaluate portfolio sensitivity to rates and currency strength/weakness.
5. Corporate Reports: Broadcom and European "heavyweights" can shift sectoral demand structure; the focus should be on management forecasts and margin quality, not just quarterly results.

The summary for investors: March 4, 2026, will serve as a test of global cycle resilience through the PMIs, a test of expectations regarding the Fed through employment and ISM Services, and "energy momentum" through EIA inventories. In such circumstances, it is prudent to pre-determine risk levels across the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX indices, as well as to have an action plan in case of significant rate reassessments and commodity volatility.