Energy Sector Overview on July 25, 2026: Brent Oil Prices and Gas Market Insights

Oil and Gas and Energy News for July 25, 2026: Brent Above $100 per Barrel, TTF Gas at Highest Since January 2023, Suspension of CPC Loadings, OPEC+ Quotas, Russian Fuel Market, Coal, Electricity, and Renewable Energy. Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Market Participants

The global fuel and energy complex is heading into the weekend in a state of maximum tension for the last four years. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which has spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, has pushed Brent crude prices above the psychological mark of $100 per barrel for the first time since May, while European gas at the TTF hub has reached its highest level since January 2023. Concurrently, Kazakhstan has suspended oil shipments through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and the Russian domestic market for petroleum products is just beginning to emerge from a severe phase of shortage. Below is a detailed overview of key developments in the oil and gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors and market participants in the energy sector.

Key Updates as of Saturday Morning, July 25, 2026

• Oil: Brent closed at $100.69 per barrel on Thursday (+7%), WTI at $92.19 (+6.2%). On Friday, the market adjusted down by about 5% — Brent traded around $95–96, while WTI was near $88.
• Monthly Dynamics: From $71.57 per barrel on July 1, Brent has increased by over 30% — one of the sharpest monthly surges since 2022.
• Gas: TTF futures rose above €63/MWh — the highest since January 2023; an increase of over 45% since early July and almost double year-on-year.
• Logistics: CPC has halted loadings in Novorossiysk; Kazakhstan has reduced production.
• Coal: Newcastle is holding steady at around $130 per ton amid a shift from lost LNG supplies.
• Electricity: The IEA forecasts a 3.6% increase in global electricity demand in 2026.

Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns to Prices

The oil market has entered a reaction mode to military updates for the fifth week. The breakthrough above $100 for Brent occurred following reports of attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and statements regarding the US's readiness to deliver a broad strike against Iran. This has marked the culmination of a rally, during which the commodity sector has gained over 30% in three weeks.

Factors Driving Prices Up

1. Physical traffic reduction through the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about a fifth of global oil trade.
2. The threat of a blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait — an alternative route for Saudi exports bypassing Hormuz.
3. The cessation of oil loadings from Kazakhstan in the Black Sea, removing over 1% of global supply from the market.
4. Depleted commercial oil and petroleum product stocks in OECD countries after the spring phase of the conflict.
5. Increased freight and insurance costs, which are reflected in the final prices for refineries.

Factors Holding Back Growth

• The diplomatic track: reports of Pakistan's efforts, supported by China, to revive US-Iran negotiations have immediately removed about 5% of the premium from the market.
• China's interest in de-escalation: disruptions in the Persian Gulf impact the interests of the world's largest oil importer.
• OPEC+ spare capacity and the ongoing recovery of quotas.

The range of forecasts has become exceptionally wide. RBC Capital Markets suggests that with further escalation, Brent could surpass the 2022 peak of $128 per barrel. In contrast, UBS expects a pullback to $85 by year-end, emphasizing that the recovery of production in the Middle East is proceeding slower than market expectations, which will keep the oil market in a deficit.

OPEC+: Quotas Increase, but Real Barrels Arrive Slowly

The alliance continues its phased recovery of production. The July quota for the "group of eight" is set at 30.633 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of over 1 million barrels per day compared to June; the monthly easing step remains at 188,000 barrels per day. The alliance's overall policy is confirmed until December 31, 2026, with a maximum allowed production level fixed at 39.725 million barrels per day. Concurrently, an assessment of the maximum production capacities of participants continues — this will form the basis for the baseline quotas for 2027.

The key problem for OPEC+ today is not in paper quotas but in logistics: a significant portion of available capacity is located in Gulf countries and is physically dependent on the very Strait of Hormuz, the risks around which are pushing prices higher. The UAE's exit from the alliance on May 1, 2026, further reduced the managed pool of supply.

Gas Market: TTF Hits Max, Europe Risks Not Filling UGS

The European gas market has become the second epicenter of the crisis. TTF quotes have risen by more than 45% since early July, exceeding €63/MWh. The reasons are structural:

• Reduction in Qatari LNG supplies and export restrictions from the Persian Gulf;
• Redirection of American LNG cargoes to Asian markets with higher prices;
• Abnormal heat in Europe, increasing electricity demand for air conditioning and, consequently, gas in generation;
• Rising freight and insurance rates on routes through conflict zones.

The largest gas supplier to Europe, Equinor, has warned that the region is highly likely not to meet the target storage filling level of 80% by the beginning of the heating season. The lag in injection rates from the five-year norm makes the winter of 2026–2027 the main risk for European industry. An additional aspect of the problem is inflationary: against the backdrop of the energy shock, the ECB on July 23 maintained the deposit rate at 2.25%, but a significant portion of economists expects another increase by the end of the year.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium: A Blow to Kazakhstan’s Exports

On July 19, the CPC suspended oil loading at the marine terminal near Novorossiysk after drone attacks on two tankers. As of July 21, Kazakhstan halted the pumping of raw materials into the consortium system: shipowners are refusing to send vessels to the terminal. The CPC provides around 80-90% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and over 1% of global oil supply; about 63 million tons of raw materials passed through the system in 2025.

On July 23, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan confirmed the forced reduction of daily production to prevent tank farm overflow. Some volumes are redirected through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, but its capacities cannot fully compensate for the lost exports. For European refineries focused on the CPC Blend grade, this means an urgent search for replacement batches of light low-sulfur oil.

Russia: The Fuel Market Gradually Emerges from Acute Phase

The domestic market for petroleum products in Russia is experiencing the most challenging summer in recent years. The gasoline and diesel shortages observed since the end of May were caused by a combination of factors: unscheduled refinery shutdowns, seasonal demand peaks during the holiday and harvest seasons, as well as logistical constraints in southern regions.

The set of measures taken includes:

• A complete ban on the export of gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, jet fuel, and gasoil;
• A reduction of the mandatory exchange sale share of gasoline from 15% to 10% for the period from July 1 to September 30;
• Zero import duties and an increase in imports of petroleum products from Belarus;
• Maximizing the load of existing capacities, shortening the duration of current repairs, and postponing planned ones;
• Utilizing the capacity of medium and small refineries.

On July 21, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the stabilization of the market had begun, noting that in some regions the situation is being resolved "in a manual, targeted mode." Priority is given to supplying farmers during the harvest season and northern deliveries. The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service has initiated 15 cases against market participants, and on July 23, the Ministry of Energy and oil companies were instructed to work on lifting regional restrictions on fuel sales below 50 liters — a signal that authorities believe the peak of the crisis has passed.

Russian Oil Exports: Volatility of Discounts

The dynamics of the Urals export crude in 2026 are demonstrating an unusual amplitude. In April-May, at the peak of the Middle Eastern crisis, Urals in supplies to India and China traded at a premium to Brent, reflecting an acute shortage of sulfurous grades. By June-July, quotes returned to a discount in the range of $2-3 per barrel amid reduced activity from Asian refiners and squeezed margins of independent Chinese refineries. The current rise in benchmark prices improves export revenues again; however, the sanctions infrastructure — limitations on freight, insurance, and settlements — continues to keep realizable prices below exchange indicators.

Coal Market: Comeback Amid LNG Shortages

Coal is returning to the global energy agenda as the fuel of last resort. Australian thermal coal from Newcastle is trading around $130 per ton. The shortfall of LNG supplies to Asia is generating additional demand: according to industry analysts, additional coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 could amount to around 70 million tons, and with the resumption of full-scale hostilities — up to 90 million tons.

Japan is leading the way in coal generation growth, where output at coal-fired power plants is rising at double-digit rates amid gas reductions. South Korea and Taiwan are also increasing the load on coal capacities. Conversely, India is curbing imports due to growth in domestic production and high inventory levels, while China remains relatively protected due to its low gas share in the energy balance. Notably, the largest mining companies are not rushing to sanction new projects, viewing the surge in demand as cyclical rather than structural.

Energy and Renewable Energy: Record Year Amid Crisis

The paradox of 2026 is that the energy shock has not slowed down but accelerated the energy transition. According to the latest update from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity demand is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026 and by another 3.8% in 2027 — from 28,600 TWh in 2025 to 30,700 TWh by 2027. The drivers include industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers.

Key takeaways from the generation forecast include:

1. Renewable generation in 2026 will surpass coal for the first time in history on a global scale.
2. Renewable energy output will increase by more than 8%, with its share in global generation rising from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027.
3. Solar generation will add about 600 TWh and surpass wind, becoming the second source of renewable energy after hydropower.
4. Electricity demand in India will grow by 7%; the country has surpassed the 100 GW mark for variable renewable generation for the first time.

The investment picture confirms the trend: total investments in global energy in 2026 are estimated at $3.4 trillion, of which about $2.2 trillion is directed towards low-carbon technologies and electricity network infrastructure. Renewable energy accounts for around $665 billion, including $365 billion in solar energy — effectively $1 billion daily, $200 billion in wind energy, and $75 billion in hydropower generation. Investments in energy storage systems will for the first time exceed $100 billion, increasing by more than 35% year-on-year. The logic for investors is simple: self-generation is a form of insurance against geopolitical shocks in hydrocarbon supply chains.

Implications for Energy Market Participants

The market has entered a phase where price formation is determined not by supply and demand balance but by probabilistic assessments of military scenarios. Practical takeaways for investors, fuel, and oil companies include:

• Hedging has become essential. Amplitudes of movement of 5-7% per session make unhedged positions in oil, gas, and petroleum products a source of unacceptable risk.
• Refining margins are under pressure from both sides. Rising raw material costs amid administrative or competitive price release constraints compress refinery crack spreads.
• Logistics is more important than geology. Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the cost of a barrel today is determined by the throughput of bottlenecks, not the volume of reserves in the ground.
• Coal and nuclear receive a premium for predictability. Assets with a long contractual horizon and an internal resource base are being reassessed upwards.
• Winter risk in Europe has not been eliminated. The lag in filling underground gas storage creates potential for a new price surge on TTF in the fourth quarter.

The upcoming markers for the market are the dynamics of the diplomatic track regarding Iran, the resumption of loadings by the CPC, the pace of gas injection into European storage facilities, and the next OPEC+ decision on quotas. Any of these events could shift prices by $5–10 per barrel in a single session. Investors and participants in the energy market should be prepared for increased volatility in the oil, gas, and energy sector to persist at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.