News on Oil, Gas, and Energy - Wednesday, February 11, 2026: Sanction Pressure, Redirection of Oil Supplies, and Record LNG Imports
As of early February 2026, the global energy market faces a mix of conflicting factors. On one hand, the supply of oil and gas begins to exceed demand, creating conditions for a surplus and keeping prices at moderate levels. On the other hand, persistent geopolitical tensions and sanctions pressure prevent oil prices from falling sharply. Western countries continue to tighten restrictions on the export of Russian hydrocarbons: new measures were introduced at the beginning of February, including a reduction in the price cap for Russian oil and additional bans on maritime transport.
Under external pressure, key importers like India are reducing purchases of Russian energy resources, redirecting demand to alternative suppliers. Oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent around $68–69 per barrel) due to expectations of supply surplus. The European gas market is passing through winter without panic: despite quickly declining stocks, the situation is being salvaged by mild weather and record LNG imports. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum — record capacities of clean energy are being introduced, even though oil, gas, and coal still make up the backbone of the world's energy balance. Below is an overview of key events and trends in the energy sector as we approach mid-February 2026.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Amid Sanctions
At the start of February, global oil prices stabilized after a slight increase. The North Sea Brent is trading around $68–69 per barrel, and American WTI around $64–65. The oil market balances between supply surplus and geopolitical risks. Analysts forecast a significant oil surplus in the first quarter of 2026 — according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global supply may exceed demand by about 4 million barrels per day. However, various threats of supply disruptions prevent prices from falling much below current levels.
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. In February, another round of sanctions came into effect: the EU and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44 per barrel and expanded restrictions on tanker transportation of raw materials from Russia. The U.S. has taken a tougher stance on Iran, not ruling out forceful measures against its oil infrastructure. A political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily reduced exports from there. All these factors increase the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting the surplus supply pressure.
- Restructuring Export Flows. Major Asian buyers are adjusting oil imports under the influence of diplomatic pressure from the West. India, which was previously purchasing over 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude, has sharply reduced these supplies. In January 2026, imports of Russian oil to India fell to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day — a near yearly low. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, a new trade deal with India implies a de facto abandonment of Russian oil by Indian refineries. Although New Delhi has not officially announced an embargo, major Indian companies have already stopped placing orders for Russian crude. As a result, Moscow is redirecting exports to other markets, primarily to China, where refineries readily purchase Russian oil at a discount, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Decreasing Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, even though underground gas storage facilities are rapidly depleting during the winter. Gas stocks in the EU have dropped to about 44% of total capacity by the end of January — the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (~58%). Nevertheless, mild winter temperatures and high LNG supplies are preventing shortages and price shocks. Futures prices for gas (TTF index) remain moderate, reflecting market confidence in the availability of resources.
- Depletion of Stocks and Need for Replenishment. Winter withdrawals are leading to a rapid decline in fuel volumes in storage. If current trends continue, by the end of March, European storage facilities may be only around 30% full. To raise stocks to 80–90% before next winter, the EU will need to inject about 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the interseason. Meeting this task will require maximum increases in purchases during warmer months — a significant portion of current imports is immediately consumed. Replenishing underground reserves by autumn will be a serious test for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Deliveries. The reduction in pipeline supplies to Europe is being compensated by unprecedented LNG imports. In 2025, EU countries purchased about 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% from the previous year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion. The increase in supplies is ensured by the expansion of global supply: the launch of new LNG plants in the U.S., Canada, Qatar, and other countries is increasing global production by about 7%. The European market hopes to get through the heating season of 2026/27 through high LNG purchases, especially since the EU plans to completely stop relying on Russian gas by 2027 (replacing approximately 33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes).
Refined Products Market: Stabilization after Turmoil
- At the beginning of 2026, the global refined products market (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) is showing gradual normalization after a period of shortages. Fuel demand remains high due to the recovery of transportation and industry; however, the introduction of new refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East has helped eliminate acute imbalances. Prices for gasoline and diesel have fallen from the peaks of 2022–2023, although local spikes are still possible (during extreme cold or fuel supply disruptions). Governments in many countries are taking measures to smooth out price fluctuations — reducing taxes, selling fuel from reserves, or temporarily limiting exports. In particular, in Russia, after the 2025 fuel crisis, there are still restrictions on the export of gasoline and diesel, while a compensation mechanism for refineries keeps domestic prices stable.
Electricity Sector: Growing Demand and Strengthening Infrastructure
- Global electricity consumption is steadily growing (over 3.5% annually according to IEA forecasts) against the backdrop of accelerated electrification of transport, digitalization of the economy, and increased use of air conditioning. Even in developed countries, after the stagnation of previous years, demand is beginning to rise again. These trends require large investments in power grids and storage systems to maintain supply reliability. Many countries are launching programs for the modernization and expansion of power networks and accelerated construction of transmission lines. Simultaneously, large battery farms are being constructed in several regions to smooth peak loads and integrate variable renewable generation. Energy companies are also enhancing cybersecurity and protection of networks from extreme weather, aiming to prevent outages in light of the growing dependence of the economy on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Achievements and Growth Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues at an accelerated pace. 2025 was a record year for the introduction of new renewable energy capacities (primarily solar and wind). According to the IEA, in 2025 the share of renewables in global electricity generation matched that of coal for the first time (~30%). In 2026, green energy will continue to expand. Global investments in the energy transition are reaching record highs: according to BloombergNEF, in 2025, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects (an 8% increase from 2024). Governments of major economies are reinforcing their support for environmentally friendly technologies, seeing them as a driver of sustainable growth. In the EU, climate goals have been tightened, requiring accelerated introduction of low-carbon capacities and a reform of the emissions market. However, the rapid growth of the sector is accompanied by certain challenges:
- Integration of Renewables into Energy Systems. The expanding share of solar and wind farms imposes new requirements on power grids. The variable nature of renewable generation dictates the need for the development of backup capacities and energy storage systems for balancing — from fast-reserve gas plants to large battery parks and pumped-storage stations. The power grid infrastructure is also being modernized to transmit electricity from remote renewable locations to consumers. Active development in these areas will help curb CO2 emissions growth even with increased electricity demand — provided that a sufficient volume of new low-carbon capacities is timely introduced.
Coal Sector: Demand in Asia Amid Western Exit
- Despite global efforts towards decarbonization, coal consumption remains historically high. In 2025, global demand reached approximately 8.85 billion tons (+0.5% year-on-year), and a similar level is expected in 2026. Growth is driven by developing economies in Asia (China, India, etc.), where coal is still a key fuel for power generation and industry. Simultaneously, Western countries are rapidly phasing out coal-fired power plants and banning new projects, aiming to completely eliminate coal by the 2030s. This situation is providing coal mining companies with high profits in the short term, but tightening climate policies and investor withdrawals are limiting the sector's long-term prospects.
Outlook and Forecast
Overall, the global energy sector enters 2026 without sharp shocks, although uncertainty remains. The oil market is likely to remain relatively balanced: the expected supply surplus is offset by geopolitical risks, preventing prices from either falling significantly or soaring sharply. The main intrigue in the gas sector will be Europe's ability to replenish depleted gas reserves by next winter through increased LNG imports and alternative supplies. Energy companies and investors must navigate between capitalizing on the sustained demand for traditional energy sources and investing in new technologies — from renewable generation to energy storage systems — to align with long-term energy transition trends.
