Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on December 31, 2025: China's PMI, U.S. Data, Trading Conditions in Global Markets, and Investor Benchmarks Amid Holiday Lull.
Wednesday, December 31, marks a day of decreased liquidity across global markets: some exchanges are closed due to the holiday, while others operate on a reduced schedule. For investors from the CIS, this translates to a shift in focus from intraday trading to risk management and macroeconomic signal evaluation at the start of the new year. On such days, even standard economic events can lead to disproportionate movements in individual instruments due to the thin market and wider spreads. The main focus will be on China's PMI and U.S. data, alongside the trading status of Russian exchanges, where the Moscow Exchange is closed while trading continues on the SPB Exchange.
Trading Conditions: Global Markets and CIS Exchanges
- Europe: Some continental exchanges are closed; a number of markets may experience a shortened trading day. For Euronext exchanges, December 31 is designated as a half trading day for several markets in the group.
- Asia: A significant portion of regional markets is going into holiday mode; liquidity is typically lower than the average at month-end.
- Russia: The Moscow Exchange will not conduct trading on December 31. For CIS investors, maintaining operational access remains key, making the SPB Exchange the primary venue for continued trading.
- U.S.: The stock market operates as usual, while the bond market closes earlier than the standard time.
The practical takeaway for investors: as the close of European and American sessions approaches, volatility may spike on specific news, but confirming the resilience of movement will be challenging due to low volumes. The focus should be on maintaining discipline with limits, selecting instruments with high liquidity, and checking settlement and clearing schedules with the broker.
China: Services PMI and Composite PMI (04:30 MSK)
Early in the morning, business activity indicators for China's services sector and the composite PMI for December will be released. For global markets, this serves as a quick gauge of whether internal demand momentum is maintained and how robustly the services sector is recovering. For commodity assets and emerging market currencies, China's PMI is traditionally significant: strong values reinforce demand expectations for industrial metals and energy resources, while weak readings heighten caution and increase the risk premium.
- How to Read the Release: A level above 50 typically indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction in activity.
- What Matters Inside: Components of new orders, employment, and prices (inflation signals in supply chains).
- Market Reaction: With thin liquidity, sharp movements in commodity futures and currency pairs are likely, but trend confirmation may only emerge after the U.S. opens.
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims (16:30 MSK)
In the afternoon, the focus will shift to U.S. data — initial jobless claims. This metric is crucial as a timely indicator of the labor market's condition and the economy's "temperature." For investors, it is a part of the puzzle: the labor market influences consumption trajectories, corporate profits, and rate expectations.
- Positive Scenario: Moderate levels of claims without sharp spikes signal employment stability.
- Negative Scenario: A noticeable rise in claims may enhance defensive sentiment and demand for quality (short-term bonds, dollar instruments, low-volatility sectors).
- Tactic: During the pre-holiday session, the reaction may be disproportionate; when trading through the SPB Exchange, it is wise to determine entry/exit levels in advance and use limit orders.
U.S.: Chicago PMI (Target 17:45 MSK)
Another U.S. indicator, the Chicago PMI for December, will help assess the state of manufacturing activity and business expectations in the industrial region. Combined with jobless claims data, this figure forms a "quick" macro set that market participants use for fine-tuning expectations at the beginning of January.
- Volatility Factor: If the release occurs in a thin market, movements in index futures and the dollar could be sharp but short-lived.
- Interpretation: An increase in the index strengthens arguments for resilient business activity; a weak reading heightens the risk of a "soft slowdown."
Corporate Reports: Global Agenda for December 31
From a corporate reporting perspective, the day is typically "light" for major issuers: companies from the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and the largest Russian public companies do not concentrate releases on December 31. Most financial results publications are expected during the working weeks of January-February when the market returns to normal liquidity.
However, in the U.S., reports from select small-cap issuers are scheduled. While they are not systemic for the broader market, they may present pinpointed interest for risk-oriented strategies:
- Coffee Holding (JVA): Focus on margin dynamics amidst raw material prices, working capital, and inventory.
- Maison Solutions (MSS): Comparable sales, cost inflation, and network efficiency (operating margin) are of interest.
- 1933 Industries (TGIFF/TGIF): Key factors include cash flow, debt load, and revenue stability in the regulated sector.
- Formation Minerals (FOMI): Investors should focus on asset structure, funding sources, and any signs of achieving sustainable income.
- 4Less Group (FLES): Microcap with increased liquidity risks; priority is assessing corporate events and reporting transparency.
For CIS investors, the practical recommendation is straightforward: consider such reports only if there is an understanding of the specific nature of illiquid securities, and with a predetermined risk limit. The pre-holiday trading carries a noticeably higher risk of "slippage" and quote breaks.
Assets and Themes of the Day: Currencies, Rates, Commodities
In reduced trading conditions at several exchanges, the market often shifts focus to major macro themes. Therefore, China's PMI and U.S. data will set the tone for the dollar, yields, and commodity assets. Three practical observations for investor portfolios are essential:
- Currencies: Surprises in U.S. data may prompt the dollar to react most quickly, especially against currencies with low liquidity during the holidays.
- Rates: The early closure of the bond market in the U.S. amplifies the effects of thin liquidity — movements may be "jumpy."
- Commodities: Weaker-than-expected China PMI often pressures cyclicals, while a stronger-than-expected reading supports risk appetite and demand for commodities.
Risk Management for Pre-Holiday Trading
For both retail and professional investors, the key task of the day is to protect against inefficient execution and "accidental" volatility. In the pre-holiday trading, it is rational to:
- use limit orders instead of market orders;
- reduce position sizes in instruments with weak depth;
- avoid "impulse" trades immediately after data releases — wait for quote stabilization;
- account for the specifics of settlements and clearing, especially when trading through the SPB Exchange and in foreign instruments;
- keep the focus on portfolio goals: the end of the year is not the best time for aggressive risk accumulation without a clear idea.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
December 31 is a day when global markets largely follow a holiday schedule, which means the price of mistakes may increase. The focus remains on economic events — China's PMI in the morning and a block of U.S. data in the afternoon. On the corporate reporting side, no significant releases from major companies are expected; activity will center around select small issuers in the U.S., where liquidity risk and volatility are above average.
The practical focus for CIS investors is: (1) pre-determine reaction scenarios to macro data, (2) employ conservative execution with limit orders, (3) avoid overloading the portfolio with risk in a thin market, (4) prepare a watch list for January when liquidity will return, and the new year's agenda will commence.
