Key News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, February 9, 2026
At the start of February 2026, global oil prices remain relatively stable, holding in the high $60 range per barrel. Benchmark Brent is trading around $68–70, while American WTI is in the $64–66 range. Following a downturn in the second half of 2025, prices have partially recovered due to coordinated actions from OPEC+ and certain geopolitical factors. Nonetheless, overall market pressure persists due to excess supply and uncertainty in the global economy. Western countries continue to strengthen sanctions: starting in February, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to ~$45 per barrel, and the European Union announced its 20th sanction package against Russia this week, which includes a complete ban on servicing maritime shipments of Russian oil and the addition of dozens of tankers from the “shadow fleet” to the sanction list. These measures complicate Russia's export shipments and increase the risk of logistical disruptions. Simultaneously, a sharp decline in Russian oil purchases is noted in India; according to January data, imports fell more than threefold compared to last year, signaling a possible reorientation of trade flows.
In the domestic market, the Russian government continues to closely monitor fuel prices. The Federal Antimonopoly Service is conducting unscheduled inspections of oil companies in response to the risks of accelerated inflation in this sector. The winter cold has led to new records in energy consumption: in several regions, peak loads on the energy system and historical highs in gas demand have been recorded. However, the energy system is coping with the increased load by utilizing reserves, and significant disruptions have been avoided. Concurrently, the global energy transition shows no signs of slowing down — investments in renewable energy are at record levels, and for 2025, the share of "green" generation in the European Union for the first time exceeded electricity generation from fossil fuels. In this overview, we analyze current trends in global oil and gas markets, assess the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, and highlight key events in the segments of coal, electricity, and renewable energy sources.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Sanction Pressure
In early February, oil prices stabilized at moderate levels after a moderate increase. The North Sea Brent remains around $68–70 per barrel, while American WTI is in the $64–66 range, having rebounded from the lows ($60) of late 2025. Market support comes from signals of OPEC+’s readiness to restrict supply amid fragile demand. Major oil exporters suspended planned production increases at the end of last year and confirmed the extension of existing production restrictions at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026, aiming to prevent overproduction during the seasonally weak winter demand. Key factors and risks in the oil market include:
- OPEC+ Policy and Demand. Members of the alliance continue to adhere to significant voluntary production cuts (approximately 3.7 million barrels per day), forgoing previously planned increases. OPEC forecasts a growth in global oil demand in 2026 of around +1.2 million bpd (to ~105 million bpd), although it notes that China's economic slowdown and high interest rates in the US and Europe might adjust these expectations. The oil alliance closely monitors the market and is prepared to respond swiftly to prevent imbalances: short-term geopolitical incidents (such as the recent escalation in the Middle East) have already demonstrated OPEC+’s willingness to intervene if necessary to stabilize prices.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. The sanction confrontation surrounding Russian oil is intensifying and continues to affect the global market. The new 20th package of EU sanctions tightens restrictions: European companies are prohibited from insuring and financing tankers carrying oil from Russia, and the "blacklist" of violating vessels has been expanded. Additionally, starting in February, Western countries have lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $45, increasing pressure on Moscow's export revenues. Despite this, Russian hydrocarbons continue to find buyers in Asia, but competition for these markets is increasing. In January, India — the largest importer of Russian oil in 2025 — reduced purchases to about one-third of the previous year's level, partially reorienting to other sources. This reflects the flexibility of Asian consumers and compels Russian exporters to actively redirect supplies to China, Turkey, Southeast Asia, and other alternative directions.
Consequently, a combination of factors prevents oil prices from collapsing but also limits their increase. The market is factoring in both risks of economic slowdown (which reduce demand) and the possibility of a deficit developing in the second half of the year if sanctions significantly curtail supply. For now, however, prices remain relatively stable, and volatility is low by recent years’ standards.
Natural Gas Market: Declining Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February 2026, the European gas market remains relatively calm despite increased winter consumption. Underground gas storage facilities in the EU are rapidly depleting as the heating season progresses, but the relatively mild weather in late January and record LNG supplies allow for the avoidance of shortages and price shocks. Futures at the TTF hub are holding around $10–12 per million BTUs, significantly lower than the peaks of 2022 and reflecting market confidence in resource availability this winter. In Russia, early February saw a historical peak in daily gas consumption — abnormal frosts established record withdrawals from the gas transportation system over several consecutive days.
The situation in the gas market is defined by several key trends:
- Depleting Stocks and New Injection Season. Winter withdrawal is rapidly depleting gas inventories in European storage facilities. By the end of January, storage levels in the EU had fallen to ~45% of total capacity — the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the multi-year average (~58%). If current trends continue, stocks could shrink to ~30% by the end of March. To lift levels back to a comfortable 80–90% ahead of next winter, European importers will need to inject about 60 billion cubic meters of gas in the interseason. Achieving this goal will require maximizing purchases during the warmer months, especially since a significant portion of current imports is used directly for consumption.
- Record LNG Supplies. A decrease in pipeline supplies is being offset by unprecedented imports of liquefied natural gas. In 2025, European countries purchased around 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% from the previous year), and in 2026, imports are expected to reach 185 billion. The increase in purchases is supported by the expansion of global supply: the commissioning of new LNG plants in the US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries is projected to lead to a further increase in global LNG production of about 7% this year (the highest growth rate since 2019). The European market aims to get through the heating season again thanks to high LNG purchases, especially given that the European Union has decided to completely cease imports of Russian gas by 2027, which will require replacing ~33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Shift Eastward. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies eastward. Volumes pumped through the "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline to China have reached record levels (close to the designed capacity of ~22 billion cubic meters per year), while Moscow is also accelerating negotiations for the construction of a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and the Arctic. However, even with the eastern direction, overall gas exports from Russia have significantly decreased compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term reconfiguration of gas flows continues, solidifying a new global map of gas supply.
Overall, the gas market is entering the second half of winter without the previous turbulence: prices remain moderate, and volatility has dropped to a minimum over recent years.
Market for Oil Products and Refineries: Stabilization of Supply and Regulatory Measures
The global market for oil products (gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, etc.) is relatively stable at the beginning of 2026 after a period of price upheavals in previous years. Demand for fuel remains high due to the recovery of transportation activity and industrial growth; however, the increase in global refining capacities makes it easier to meet this demand. After shortages and price peaks in 2022–2023, the supply of gasoline and diesel is gradually normalizing, although disruptions are still observed in certain regions. Key trends in the fuel market include:
- Increase in Refining Capacities. New refineries are coming online in Asia and the Middle East, increasing global fuel output. For example, upgrading the Bapco refinery in Bahrain has expanded its capacity from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day, and new facilities have started operating in China and India. OPEC estimates that from 2025 to 2027, global refining capacity will increase by about 0.6 million barrels per day annually. The growth of oil products' supply has already led to a reduction in refining margins compared to the record levels of 2022–2023, easing price pressure for consumers.
- Price Stabilization and Local Disbalances. Prices for gasoline and diesel have declined from peak levels, reflecting the lower cost of oil and the increase in fuel supply. However, local spikes are still possible; for instance, recent frosts in North America temporarily increased demand for heating fuel, while in some European countries, heightened premiums for diesel persist due to the restructuring of logistics chains after the embargo on Russian supplies. In several cases, governments are utilizing smoothing mechanisms — from reducing fuel excise taxes to releasing portions of strategic reserves — to keep prices under control during sudden demand surges.
- Government Intervention in the Market. In some countries, authorities are directly intervening in the fuel market to stabilize supply. In Russia, after the fuel crisis of 2025, export restrictions on oil products remain: the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, and oil companies are allowed only limited exports. At the same time, the damping mechanism, where the government compensates refineries for the difference between domestic and export prices, has been extended, stimulating supplies to the domestic market. These measures have alleviated fuel shortages at gas stations, although they emphasize the importance of manual control. In other regions (for example, some Asian countries), authorities are also resorting to temporary support measures — tax reductions, subsidizing transportation, or increasing imports — to mitigate the effects of sharp price fluctuations on fuel.
Electricity Sector: Rising Demand and Network Modernization
The global electricity sector is facing accelerated demand growth, accompanied by significant infrastructure challenges. According to the IEA, global electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 3.5% per year over the next five years — significantly outpacing total energy consumption growth. The drivers include the electrification of transportation (increased electric vehicle fleet), digitalization of the economy (expansion of data centers, development of AI), and climate factors (active use of air conditioners in hot climates). After a period of stagnation in the 2010s, electricity demand is rapidly increasing even in developed countries.
In early 2026, extreme frosts led to record peak loads on energy systems in several countries. To avoid outages, operators had to employ reserve coal and oil power plants. Although, by 2025, the share of coal in the EU's electricity generation dropped to a record low of 9%, this winter some European states have temporarily returned mothballed coal-fired power plants online to cover peak demand. Concurrently, infrastructure bottlenecks were revealed: insufficient network capacity forced restrictions on the delivery of energy from renewable sources on windy days to avoid overloads. These events underscore the urgent need for accelerated modernization of grid infrastructure and development of energy storage systems.
Key priorities for the development of the electricity sector include:
- Modernization and Expansion of Networks. Increased loads require large-scale updates and development of electrical grid infrastructure. Many countries are launching accelerated programs for power line construction and digitizing energy system management. According to the IEA, over 2,500 GW of new generation and major consumer capacities around the world are awaiting connection to the grids — bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Annual investment in electrical grids is projected to increase by ~50% by 2030; otherwise, growth in generation will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are implementing new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply amidst record loads. Energy storage systems are being widely developed — industrial battery farms are being built in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. Such batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate uneven renewable generation. Simultaneously, network protection is being enhanced: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and updating equipment, considering risks to reliability due to extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and cyberattack threats. Government and energy companies are directing significant funds to enhance flexibility and resilience of energy systems to avoid blackouts as the economy’s reliance on electricity grows.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. 2025 was a record year for the deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) — primarily solar and wind power plants. Preliminary data from the IEA indicates that in 2025, the share of RES in total global electricity generation for the first time matched the share of coal (around 30%), while nuclear generation also reached record levels. In 2026, clean energy is expected to continue its growth at an accelerated pace. Global investments in the energy transition are reaching new highs: according to BNEF, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy projects and electric transportation in 2025 (+8% from 2024). Governments of leading economies are boosting support for “green” technologies, seeing them as drivers of sustainable growth.
Despite impressive progress, rapid growth in RES is accompanied by challenges. The experience of the winter of 2025/26 showed that with a high share of intermittent generation, the availability of backup power and storage systems is critically important: even advanced "green" energy systems are vulnerable to weather anomalies. To enhance stability, some countries are adjusting their policies; for instance, Germany is considering extending the operation of nuclear reactors, acknowledging that a complete phase-out of nuclear energy may be premature, and the European Union is temporarily relaxing certain climate regulations to avoid price spikes. However, the long-term goal of decarbonization remains unchanged — its realization requires a more flexible and considered approach, combining accelerated deployment of RES with maintaining reliable energy supply.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amidst Coal Phase-out
The global coal market in 2026 remains on the rise: global coal consumption is being maintained at historically high levels, despite efforts to reduce the use of this fuel. According to the IEA, global demand for coal reached over 8 billion tons in 2025—close to a record level. The primary reason is the consistently high demand in Asia. Economies such as China and India continue to burn enormous volumes of coal for power generation and industrial needs, compensating for the decline in coal use in Western Europe and the US.
- Asian Appetite. China and India account for the lion's share of global coal consumption. China, which comprises almost 50% of global demand, even mining over 4 billion tons of coal annually, is forced to increase imports during peak periods. India is also ramping up production, but in the face of rapid economic growth, it must import significant volumes of fuel (mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia). High Asian demand keeps coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters — Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia — have seen their revenues increase due to consistent orders from Asian countries.
- Gradual Phase-out in the West. In Europe and North America, the coal sector continues to shrink. After a temporary surge in coal use in the EU during 2022–2023, its share is on the decline again: by the end of 2025, coal accounted for less than 10% of electricity generation in the European Union. The record commissioning of RES and the return of nuclear capacities to operation are displacing coal from the energy balance of developed countries. Investments in new coal projects have nearly ceased outside of Asia. It is expected that in the latter half of the decade, global demand for coal will begin to steadily decrease, although in the short term, this type of fuel will continue to be important for meeting peak loads and industrial needs in developing economies.
Forecast and Prospects
Despite a series of winter upheavals, the global fuel and energy complex enters February 2026 without signs of panic, although in a state of heightened readiness. Short-term factors — extreme weather and geopolitical tension — support price volatility for oil and gas, but the overall systemic balance of supply and demand remains stable. OPEC+ continues to play a stabilizing role, preventing the oil market from experiencing shortages, while operational rerouting of supplies and increases in production from other countries (for instance, the USA) compensate for local disruptions.
If no new shocks occur, oil prices will likely remain near current levels until the next OPEC+ meeting, when the alliance may revise quotas depending on the situation. For the gas market, the coming weeks will be decisive: mild weather in the second half of winter will allow prices to drop and initiate stock recovery, while a new cold front threatens price spikes and challenges for Europe. In spring, EU countries will face a major campaign to fill gas storage facilities ahead of the next heating season — competition with Asia for LNG is expected to be tough.
Investors are closely monitoring political signals. Possible progress in resolving geopolitical conflicts (for example, peace negotiations regarding Ukraine) or, conversely, the escalation of tensions (the worsening opposition between the US and Iran) could significantly impact market sentiments. However, long-term vectors of development — technological changes, the global energy transition, and the climate agenda — will continue to define the landscape of the global fuel and energy complex, directing investments and transformations in the industry for years to come.
