Current News in Oil and Gas and Energy as of December 12, 2025: Geopolitical Initiatives, Oil and Gas Price Balance, Global LNG Growth, Russia's Shift to the East, Energy Transition, and Industry Forecasts - An Analytical Review for Investors and Market Players in the Fuel and Energy Sector.
The focus is on the first signals of potential easing of the sanctions confrontation surrounding Russian energy, the stabilization of oil and gas prices amid cautious OPEC+ policies and comfortable fuel reserves, as well as the latest developments in the global energy landscape. This review is aimed at investors and stakeholders in the fuel and energy sector, including oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, as well as anyone monitoring the dynamics of oil, gas, electricity, and commodity markets.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices in Check
Global oil prices are stabilizing at relatively low levels as the year comes to a close: Brent is hovering around $60 per barrel, while WTI sits at approximately $58. Recent expectations of a shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy have given prices a slight boost. However, in general, oil has fallen nearly 15% since the beginning of 2025 due to the threat of oversupply amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintain a cautious approach to production management. At their December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ continues to keep a significant portion of its capacity in reserve, around 3 million barrels per day, to prevent a price collapse. With Brent at about $60, cartel representatives emphasize prioritizing market stability over immediate export increases, considering anticipated weak demand in the future.
Several key factors influence price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing much more slowly than in previous years. The increase in 2025 is estimated at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturns and energy conservation after a period of high prices, as well as slowing industry in China, are limiting demand growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of the year as restrictions eased; however, the risk of market oversupply now restrains plans for further increases. The decision to maintain output cuts at the beginning of 2026 signals the coalition's readiness to prevent excess: members will quickly adjust exports if prices decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against several oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) continue to restrain supply and support prices. However, there are currently no major shocks: on the contrary, the first diplomatic initiatives to resolve the conflict are emerging, reducing the risk premium. As a result, the oil market remains relatively stable, without sharp price fluctuations.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Expanding Supply
The gas market's dynamics at the end of 2025 are comparatively calm, contrasting with the frenzy of two years ago. The European Union enters winter without signs of a gas shortage: EU underground storage is more than 70% full, significantly above the December average. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are around €30 per MWh, significantly lower than the peaks seen in 2022. Falling volumes of Russian gas are nearly entirely compensated by record LNG imports from alternative sources, with terminals actively receiving fuel from the U.S., Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow as new capacities come online. In the U.S., large export terminals are launching (e.g., Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), strengthening America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar plans to increase LNG output to 126 million tons per year by 2027 as part of its North Field expansion, contracting significant volumes with buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also starting in other regions (Australia, Africa), increasing competition in the LNG market.
Simultaneously, gas demand is growing at moderate rates. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased cargoes to the spot market due to temporarily weak consumption. Altogether, the expansion of supply and restrained demand is keeping global gas prices relatively low. However, weather remains a critical factor: in the event of abnormal cold snaps or supply disruptions in winter, temporary price spikes could occur, although the baseline scenario suggests price stability will be maintained.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Firm Stance and Search for Compromise
The confrontation between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although attempts at dialogue have emerged as the year closes. G7 and EU countries maintain a strict sanctions policy: the embargo on Russian oil is in effect, export of petroleum products is limited, a price cap has been established, and financial sanctions complicate energy trade from Russia. Moreover, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026 as allies aim to close remaining loopholes and are prepared to intensify pressure if the military conflict continues.
At the same time, the European Union is taking steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On December 10, ambassadors from EU countries approved a plan to legally abandon Russian energy sources by the end of 2027 – ceasing purchases of natural gas (including LNG) and oil along with petroleum products. This move is referred to by the EU as "the beginning of a new era," which will permanently rid European energy of dependence on Russian fuel, solidifying the break with Russia at a legislative level, and stimulating the development of alternative sources—from increased LNG imports to accelerated deployment of renewables. Moscow has reacted critically to the EU's strategy, warning that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will lead to increased costs for Europe. Nonetheless, Brussels shows determination to pay this price for geopolitical objectives.
According to media reports, the U.S. has proposed to allies a gradual plan for Russia's return to the global economy after peaceful settlement—this includes lifting sanctions and restoring the export of Russian energy resources to Europe. However, the EU remains cautious towards such initiatives and rules out softening its position without real progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia Shifts Focus to Asian Markets
Faced with the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing the export of energy resources to Asia. China has become a key buyer: at the end of August, the first batch of LNG was shipped to the PRC from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant. In the autumn, Russian LNG supplies to China surged double digits—Beijing is actively increasing fuel purchases at a discount of 30-40%, ignoring the West's sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative market for its goods and offering China cheap raw materials for its economy.
India also remains among the largest purchasers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the EU's oil embargo, Indian refineries significantly increased imports of Russian Urals crude oil and other grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership has assured partners of their readiness to supply India with stable volumes of oil and petroleum products. Cheap resources from Russia help satisfy India's rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is working to avoid critical dependency on a single supplier.
To solidify its eastern pivot, Russia is developing its export infrastructure. A new gas pipeline project, "Power of Siberia-2," is being discussed, which will route through Mongolia to China and could significantly increase gas supplies to Asia in the future. Concurrently, Russia is creating its own tanker fleet to deliver oil to markets in India, China, and Southeast Asia, thereby reducing dependence on Western carriers and insurance services. These steps are aimed at making the long-term shift of energy flows to the East irreversible and decreasing Russia's reliance on the European market.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine also affects energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone attack damaged the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not completely stopped, Astana has decided to accelerate diversification. The Government of Kazakhstan has announced the redirection of some oil from the Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing shipments through Caspian ports to reduce dependence on the route through Russia.
To enhance its energy security, Kazakhstan also plans to build a new refinery with foreign investment involvement. Expanding domestic capacities for the production of petroleum products will help the country reduce fuel imports and increase the resilience of its oil and gas sector to external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, even though international climate agreements are stalled. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a stringent plan to phase out fossil fuels was not achieved—several major oil and gas exporters blocked EU initiatives for specific deadlines to cease production. The final agreement turned out to be a compromise, shifting the focus to financing adaptation to climate change and general emission reduction targets without clear deadlines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the absence of clear commitments, leading economies are practically increasing investments in green energy. The year 2025 has become a record for the commissioning of new solar and wind power plants in many countries. China, India, the U.S., the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy (RE), storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, striving to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, however, there have been setbacks in the decarbonization process. High natural gas prices in 2025 have forced several countries to increase coal burning for electricity generation to get through the heating season—the global demand for coal remains high. Experts view this step as a temporary measure. As the share of RE increases and storage technology improves, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources is expected to decline again. Thus, the long-term trend towards a shift to clean energy remains, albeit with some delays along the way.
Forecasts: Beginning of 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high inventories and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average Brent price could drop to the $55–60 per barrel range. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply alter pricing conditions: escalation of conflict in Ukraine, introduction of new sanctions, and crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) could cause severe price fluctuations.
For the gas market, the defining factor will continue to be the weather. If the winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel stocks are sufficient, European gas prices will remain low. However, a few weeks of abnormal cold could rapidly deplete gas reserves and provoke a price spike. Furthermore, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector in 2026 will need to adapt to new conditions. Diversifying supplies, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including the development of RE and carbon capture technologies) will be crucial for business sustainability. The outgoing year 2025 clearly demonstrated the close interconnection between economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will balance between oversupply and the risks of shortages, while the global community and authorities will need to align energy security goals with climate objectives.
