Latest News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, January 12, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Key Global Energy Projects. Analytical Review for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of January 12, 2026, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to a combination of oversupply and geopolitical shifts. The new year began with an unprecedented move by the US regarding Venezuela—the detention of President Nicolás Maduro, which could reshape oil supply routes. However, the growth in demand for energy resources remains sluggish, raising concerns about market saturation.
The global oil market continues to demonstrate falling prices under the pressure of oversupply: total production has exceeded demand, and in the early months of 2026, a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day is expected. Brent prices remain around $60 per barrel post-holidays, approximately 15% lower than levels at the beginning of last year, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and geopolitical risks. The European gas market is confidently navigating mid-winter: gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to over 60%, mild weather in December, and record liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are keeping prices at relatively low levels (around €28–30 per MWh or $9–10 per MMBtu). Meanwhile, the global energy transition shows no signs of slowing—many countries recorded new highs in electricity generation from renewable sources in 2025, although traditional resources still require support for the reliability of energy systems.
In Russia, after last year's surge in fuel prices, authorities continue to manually regulate the domestic fuel market—extended export restrictions and other measures are in place to normalize the situation. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and the Venezuelan Factor Pressure Prices
Global oil prices at the beginning of 2026 remain under downward pressure from fundamental factors. After several months of gradual decline, prices have accelerated downward in light of expectations for abundant supply. Total oil production significantly increased over the past year: OPEC countries expanded exports, while non-OPEC production rose even more sharply. As a result, the market entered 2026 with a surplus—estimates indicate that a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day is possible in the first half of the year, with demand growth slowing (around +1% annually compared to typical ~1.5%). In this context, the Brent benchmark fell to around $60 per barrel, while American WTI dropped to about $57, which is 15-20% lower than this time last year.
Additional pressure on the market is brought by the situation in Venezuela. The unexpected detention of Nicolás Maduro by the US in early January opened the prospect for the easing of the American oil embargo against Caracas. Washington has already expressed its readiness to attract companies for the restoration of Venezuela's oil industry and announced a deal for the supply of up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the US, effectively redirecting part of the exports previously destined for China. These developments have heightened expectations for increased global supply and triggered further price declines. Simultaneously, the oversupply of oil has prompted OPEC+ countries to consider their future moves: despite recent agreement to maintain current production quotas, key participants in the alliance signal readiness to resume cuts if prices fall below a comfortable level. So far, no new official agreements have been announced—the market is closely monitoring the rhetoric from Saudi Arabia and its partners regarding potential price stabilization.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe Keep Prices in Check
In the gas market, the focus remains on the situation in Europe, which is experiencing winter much more calmly than during the peak energy crisis of 2022-2023. EU countries entered 2026 with gas storage facilities filled to over 60%, significantly higher than historical averages for mid-winter. Mild weather in December and record LNG imports have allowed for reduced withdrawals from storage. By early January, gas prices in Europe are maintained at relatively low levels: the Dutch TTF index trades around €28-30 per MWh (approximately $9-10 per MMBtu). Although prices have slightly increased in recent weeks due to colder weather and seasonal demand growth, they are still significantly lower than peak levels during the 2022-2023 crisis.
European consumers compensated for the near-total cessation of pipeline gas supplies from Russia with unprecedented increases in LNG purchases. In 2025, LNG imports to Europe grew by approximately 25% compared to 2024, reaching a record ~127 million tons—the main additional volumes came from the US, Qatar, and African countries. The launch of new floating terminals for LNG reception in Germany and other EU states has expanded capacity and enhanced the region's energy security. Predictions indicate that the EU will complete the current heating season with substantial reserves (about 35-40% of storage capacity by spring), instilling confidence in the stability of the gas market. In the Asian market, LNG prices remain somewhat higher than in Europe—the Asian JKM index exceeds $10 per MMBtu—but overall, the global gas market is in a state of relative equilibrium, thanks to increased supply and moderate demand.
Geopolitics: Venezuela Under US Control, Disputes within OPEC+, and New Sanction Risks
Geopolitical factors are once again having a significant impact on the energy sector. Two major events have taken center stage. First, Venezuela is embroiled in a severe political crisis: on January 3, the US announced the detention of President Nicolás Maduro and its intention to take over governance of the country until a transitional government is formed. President Trump stated that American oil companies would be engaged in restoring Venezuela's dilapidated oil infrastructure and increasing production. Investors reacted to these moves without panic: although Venezuela possesses the largest oil reserves in the world, its current production is minimal, and even with an influx of investment, supply growth will take years. Second, within OPEC+, disagreements have surfaced: Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered into a serious conflict (against the backdrop of events in Yemen), leading to the most significant schism among allies in decades. However, the January meeting of eight key OPEC+ countries was held without drama—the participants unanimously supported maintaining current production quotas, demonstrating a commitment to collective strategy for market stability.
China, the primary recipient of Venezuelan oil, sharply condemned the US actions, calling them "blatant interference" in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Beijing indicated it would protect its energy interests: China is likely to ramp up oil purchases from Russia and Iran or take other actions to compensate for the potential loss of Venezuelan volumes. The renewed escalation between major powers compounds geopolitical risks for the market: investors fear that competition for resources may intensify and political maneuvering could introduce further price volatility.
Meanwhile, the sanction standoff between the West and Russia in the energy sector continues with little change. At the end of 2025, Moscow extended the ban on Russian oil and petroleum products to buyers adhering to the G7/EU price cap until June 30, 2026, reiterating its position of not recognizing imposed restrictions. European sanctions against the Russian energy sector remain in place, and export routes for Russian energy resources have been completely redirected to markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. No significant easing of sanctions or breakthroughs in dialogue between Russia and Western nations are in sight—the global market must function within a new paradigm divided by sanction barriers.
In Washington, new radical measures are under discussion: a bill proposing a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil. These measures aim to further reduce Moscow's oil revenues and effectively penalize key importers of its raw materials (especially India and China), posing a risk of escalating the sanctions standoff even further.
Additional uncertainty is introduced by the situation in Iran. Since the end of last year, mass anti-government protests have continued there—the most serious challenge to the regime in recent years. The Trump administration threatened a strong response if Iranian authorities used force against demonstrators; in response, the Tehran leadership has shown unwavering resolve, restricting communication with the outside world. There is currently no direct impact from these events on Iranian oil export volumes, but the risk of escalation in the region raises nervousness in the market—participants are factoring in the likelihood of disruptions if the crisis deepens.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Faced with pressure from the West due to cooperation with Russia (the US has doubled tariffs on Indian exports since August 2025, to 50%), New Delhi firmly states that it does not intend to reduce imports of Russian oil and gas to the detriment of its energy security. Russian suppliers are forced to offer significant discounts on Urals oil (about $5 to Brent price), allowing India to continue actively purchasing raw materials at favorable prices and even increase imports of petroleum products from Russia to meet rising demand. At the same time, the country is striving to reduce its long-term dependence on imports: in 2025, a national offshore oil and gas exploration program was launched, with the state company ONGC beginning drilling in the Andaman Sea. By the end of the year, the first natural gas field in this region was announced, instilling hopes for the gradual strengthening of India's resource base. Furthermore, despite external pressure, India and Russia expanded transactions in national currencies and joint projects in the oil and gas sector in 2025, demonstrating their commitment to the partnership.
- China: Asia's largest economy is also increasing energy resource purchases while concurrently boosting domestic production. Beijing did not join the western sanctions and exploited the situation to import oil and LNG from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at reduced prices, remaining the leading buyer of Russian energy resources. According to Chinese customs, in 2024, the country imported approximately 212.8 million tons of crude oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas—an increase of 1.8% and 6.2% respectively compared to the previous year. Import growth continued in 2025, albeit at more moderate rates due to high previous numbers. Simultaneously, Chinese authorities are stimulating the growth of domestic oil and gas production: from January to November 2025, national companies produced approximately 1.5% more oil than in the same period the previous year and increased natural gas production by almost 6%. However, these gains cover only a portion of consumption growth—the Chinese economy still relies on imports for about 70% of its oil consumption and around 40% of its gas. The government is investing substantial resources in the development of fields and enhanced oil recovery technologies, but given the enormous scale of demand, China's dependence on external supplies will remain significant. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will maintain a key role in global commodity markets, combining import security with the development of their resource base.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in Renewables While Maintaining the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is significantly accelerating. In 2025, many countries set new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (solar, wind, etc.). Europe produced more electricity from solar and wind plants than from coal and gas plants for the first time in a year, reinforcing the trend towards a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels. In the US, the share of renewable energy also reached a historical maximum—over 30% of generation—while total production from wind and solar for the first time outstripped production at coal plants. China, remaining the world leader in renewable energy capacity, continues to install tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind farms every year, consistently breaking records in "green" generation.
According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3.3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed towards renewable projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. In 2026, investments in clean energy could grow even more against the backdrop of government support programs. For instance, around 35 GW of new solar plants are expected to be commissioned in the US over the year—a record figure, constituting almost half of all anticipated new generating capacity. Analysts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable energy sources could take the lead globally in electricity generation, finally surpassing coal.
At the same time, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to maintain stability. The increasing share of solar and wind creates challenges for grid balancing during hours when renewables do not produce sufficient power. To cover peak demand and reserve capacity, gas and even coal power plants are still utilized. For example, last winter, in some regions of Europe, it was necessary to briefly increase generation at coal plants during calm, cold weather—despite the environmental costs. Many countries' governments are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage facilities) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly managing loads. These measures are aimed at enhancing supply reliability as the share of renewables grows. Therefore, the energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources: renewable generation is breaking records, but classic power plants remain critically important for uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: High Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite accelerated decarbonization, the global coal market maintains significant consumption volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal continues to be high, primarily in Asia-Pacific countries, where economic growth and electricity needs support intensive use of this fuel. China—the world's largest consumer and producer of coal—consumed coal in 2025 at nearly record levels. The volume of production at Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons per year, covering the lion's share of domestic needs, but this is barely enough during peak load periods (e.g., during hot summer months with widespread use of air conditioning). India, with extensive coal reserves, is also increasing its use: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated at coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside the economy. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to commission new coal-fired power plants to meet the growing needs of their populations and industries.
Global coal production and trade have adjusted to sustained high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and exports of thermal coal in recent years, helping to keep prices relatively stable. After price peaks in 2022, thermal coal prices have decreased to more familiar levels, fluctuating within a narrow range recently. For instance, the price of thermal coal at the European ARA hub is currently around $100 per ton, down from more than $300 two years ago. Overall, the balance of supply and demand appears stable: consumers receive guaranteed fuel, while producers enjoy stable sales at profitable prices. Although many governments announce plans to phase out coal for climate goals, in the next 5-10 years, this energy source will remain indispensable for supplying electricity to a significant portion of the population. Experts believe that in the coming decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a substantial role despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the sector continues to serve as one of the pillars of global energy.
Russian Fuel Market: State Regulation Stabilizes Fuel Prices
Emergency measures aimed at normalizing fuel prices following last year's fuel crisis continue to be in effect in the Russian domestic fuel market.
- Extension of export ban on fuels: The total ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, implemented back in August 2025, has been repeatedly extended and remains in effect (at least until the end of February 2026) for all producers. This measure directs additional volumes—hundreds of thousands of tons of gasoline and diesel monthly—toward the domestic market, previously intended for export.
- Partial resumption of supplies for major refineries: As the situation stabilizes, restrictions have been partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October, some large refineries have been allowed limited export shipments of fuel under government supervision. However, the embargo on exports remains in effect for independent traders, fuel depots, and smaller refineries, preventing the leakage of scarce resources abroad.
- Control of distribution within the country: The government has tightened oversight of the movement of oil products within the domestic market. Oil companies are required to first meet the needs of domestic consumers and avoid practices of exchange reselling that previously inflated prices. Relevant ministries (Ministry of Energy, FAS, together with the St. Petersburg Exchange) are developing long-term measures—such as a system of direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks to bypass exchange platforms—to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries and smooth price fluctuations.
- Subsidies and damping mechanism: The state maintains financial support for the industry. Budget subsidies and the reverse excise mechanism ("damping") continue to compensate refiners for some of the lost export revenue. This encourages plants to direct greater volumes of gasoline and diesel fuel to the domestic market without losses due to lower internal prices.
The combination of these steps has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been kept under control. Despite record exchange prices in the summer of 2025, retail prices at gas stations have increased over the year by only about 5% (within the inflation range). Filling stations are well-stocked, and implemented measures are gradually cooling the wholesale market.
The government states that it will continue to act preemptively: if necessary, restrictions on the export of oil products will be extended into 2026, and in case of local disruptions, resources from state reserves will be promptly directed to problematic regions. The situation remains under high-level control—the authorities are prepared to implement new mechanisms to ensure stable fuel supply for the country and keep prices within acceptable limits for consumers. At the same time, Ministry of Energy officials admit that if stability is maintained, restrictions may be gradually lifted in the second half of 2026; however, the experience of recent months has shown that the state will intervene swiftly to protect the domestic market when needed.
