Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 1, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Oil Products. A Global Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Global Oil Market
The price of Brent crude oil remained around $60–64 per barrel at the end of December 2025, showing slight pullbacks after a brief rise ahead of the New Year. Overall, experts note that global oil supply significantly exceeds demand: new supplies from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and other countries are growing faster than consumption, putting pressure on prices. OPEC+ is expected to maintain current quotas without increasing production at its meeting on January 4, in order to cushion the excess supply growth.
- Supply: Major producers are increasing output, leading to an oversupply of oil in the market.
- Political Risks: U.S. actions regarding Venezuelan oil and attacks on tankers increase the risk premium in prices.
- OPEC+: At its January meeting, OPEC+ countries are likely to pause any increase in production, restraining further export growth.
- Demand: Global demand remains moderate amidst economic uncertainty. Growth in the petrochemicals and aviation sectors only partially compensates for declines in other areas.
Thus, despite the fundamental oversupply of oil, current prices are supported by unfavorable geopolitical circumstances. With global oil storage near record levels and supply situations remaining unstable, significant price drops are not anticipated.
Global Gas Market
Natural gas on the global market demonstrates mixed dynamics: European prices continue to decline due to record LNG imports from the U.S., while Asian demand remains restrained by high fuel costs. Gas storage levels in Europe exceed 85%, creating a "safety cushion" heading into the winter season. In the U.S., the wholesale gas price (Henry Hub) fluctuates around $4 per MMBtu, showing moderate seasonal growth during the cold period.
- Europe: Generation companies are actively purchasing LNG, with over half of European import volumes supplied by America, partially offsetting declines in Russian gas supplies. The excessive inflow of fuel is leading to lower prices and a convergence of European quotations with Asian ones.
- Asia: LNG imports are decreasing due to high prices and moderate economic demand. China, the largest consumer, is increasing its domestic gas production and imports via pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, reducing dependence on expensive LNG.
- Local Trends: Compared to the beginning of the year, European gas quotations have fallen by about 45%, despite cold weather. Gas markets are becoming more integrated due to a continuous flow of LNG from the U.S.
The growth of LNG export supplies from the U.S. remains a key factor: record supply is pushing out more expensive imports and stabilizing gas prices in Europe and Asia, making gas markets interlinked and less susceptible to seasonal shocks.
Fuel Markets and Oil Products
The situation in the oil product markets is characterized by a cautiously bullish sentiment. Due to global maintenance campaigns at refineries and drone strikes on Russian refining facilities, the supply of diesel and gasoline is experiencing limitations, supporting high margins. Global refineries are operating at nearly maximum capacity; many companies are planning to increase refining to take advantage of favorable price differentials between crude hydrocarbons and products.
- Market Demand: Daily consumption of gasoline and diesel remains stable, though some regions are experiencing fuel shortages at gas stations.
- Refining: The fall-winter maintenance season has affected key refineries in Europe, the U.S., and China, supporting high prices for oil products, despite surplus raw material availability.
- Refinery Margins: The diesel spread has risen to four-year highs amidst intense competition for limited supplies and strong demand for transportation and industrial fuel.
- Russia: The Russian government has extended the temporary ban on gasoline and diesel exports until the end of February 2026 to curb rising prices in the domestic market and eliminate local fuel shortages.
Thus, fuel markets remain volatile: increasing refining may smooth price peaks, but export restrictions and local logistical disruptions will maintain tension. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring news from refineries and fuel stock reports, as these factors will dictate the latest trends in the oil product sector.
Electricity and Renewable Energy Sources
The global electricity sector continues its transition to low-carbon technologies. By the end of 2025, the share of generation from renewable sources (RES) has set new records: in many countries, solar panels and wind turbines delivered maximum energy output for the year. Analysts report that global capacity for new RES installations has significantly increased compared to the previous five-year period, while energy storage systems (ESS) are being implemented to stabilize the grid. The outcomes of the COP30 climate summit reinforce the global community's commitments to increasing "clean" generation.
- Growth of Solar Energy: Asian and Middle Eastern countries have built dozens of gigawatts of new solar parks, while Europe has streamlined approval processes for similar projects.
- Wind Power Generation: In Europe and China, average annual wind output has increased: in some regions (for example, Northern Europe), wind power plants have provided record volumes of electricity.
- Energy Storage: Investments in large battery systems are rapidly increasing, allowing for smoothing fluctuations in wind and solar generation and reducing dependence on fossil reserves during peak hours.
- Hybrid Energy: To maintain the balance of renewable generation, countries are constructing new nuclear power plants and modernizing existing reactors, considering nuclear energy as a key element of a sustainable transition.
Energy companies are expanding their portfolios in the RES sector: many traditional oil and gas giants have announced significant investments in wind and solar power plants, as well as hydrogen projects, reflecting long-term shifts in priorities within the industry. Experts emphasize that for successful transition, there must be active updates to electrical grids and development of infrastructure; otherwise, the rapid growth of "clean" generation could be limited by technical barriers.
Coal Sector
Coal markets show mixed dynamics. In developed countries, demand for coal continues to shrink due to accelerated decarbonization and the replacement of coal-fired power plants with gas and renewable sources. However, in Asia, particularly in India and some Southeast Asian countries, coal consumption remains high due to the need for base-load power generation. Analysts expect that global coal consumption will stabilize or decrease slightly following record growth in 2025.
- Developed Markets: In Europe and the U.S., many coal-fired power plants have been decommissioned or converted to gas, and U.S. coal exports are declining.
- Asia and the Middle East: Rapid industrial growth in China, India, and other countries maintains high coal demand, despite efforts to transition to alternative sources.
- Prices and Trade: Following a rise in the first half of 2025, coal prices have stabilized at moderate levels. Chinese coal purchases abroad remain a significant factor for Australia and Indonesia.
Thus, the coal sector is undergoing a redistribution phase. While coal retains its role as a backup source during peak demand periods, investment trends are gradually shifting towards "clean" technologies, reflecting the prospects of long-term energy transformation.
Market Outlook and Forecasts
Most analysts expect that oil prices will remain at moderately low levels in the first quarter of 2026. Experts estimate that the average Brent price at the beginning of the year will be around $55 per barrel, despite potential temporary fluctuations. The price of U.S. gas (Henry Hub) may rise to ~$4.30 per MMBtu in the winter of 2025/26, but then return to levels around $4 as demand stabilizes. Electricity consumption is expected to continue growing by 1–2% per year in developed countries, supported by an increasing share of RES. Global coal consumption is forecasted to be lower by 2026 compared to the previous year.
- Oil: An oversupply is expected at least until the summer of 2026, which will continue to keep prices down unless OPEC+ returns to cutting quotas.
- Gas: Further growth in LNG exports from the U.S. will keep prices low in Asia and Europe, although the winter demand peak may temporarily raise quotations.
- Electricity: Increasing RES generation will gradually reduce dependence on fossil sources. Energy companies continue to invest in expanding "clean" generation and modernizing grids.
- Investments: Energy companies plan to diversify assets: growth in investments in renewables, hydrogen initiatives, and the development of new fields is expected.
Overall, energy markets enter 2026 with moderate optimism: the balance of supply and demand currently supports relative price stability. However, any significant changes in geopolitics or economic activity could rapidly shift trend directions. Investors continue to closely monitor industry news and global energy stock reports, as these will become key determining factors in the coming months.
The team at Open Oil Market wishes all readers a Happy New Year 2026 and success in endeavors in the fuel and energy markets!
