Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of Saturday, December 20, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy Sources (RES), Coal, Refining (Refineries), and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market.
By the end of December, significant changes are unfolding in the global fuel and energy complex. The long-term price lows for energy carriers, combined with geopolitical shifts, create a complex environment that attracts the attention of investors and market participants. On one hand, oil is trading close to its lowest levels in recent years, amid expectations of oversupply and positive signals regarding a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, gas prices in Europe continue to decline even with the onset of winter cold, thanks to a record influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the same time, global coal demand reached a record peak in 2025 and is likely to begin a steady decline as the energy transition accelerates.
Against this backdrop, governments and major companies in the sector are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to ease sanctions-related tensions and ensure stable fuel supplies, while others are increasing investments in both the traditional oil and gas sector and green energy. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw material sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market
The global oil market continues to face pressure, with prices holding around the lowest points seen in recent years. The benchmark Brent crude is trading near $60 per barrel (at times dipping below this psychologically significant mark), while American WTI is around $55. These are the lowest levels seen since about 2020. Key factors contributing to the decline in oil prices include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: Forecasts for 2026 indicate that global production may exceed demand. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the US and Brazil) have ramped up oil production to record levels. At the same time, global demand growth is slowing—industry estimates show that oil consumption grew by about +0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to more than +2 million b/d in 2023). This leads to accumulation of inventories and adds pressure on prices.
- Hopes for Ceasefire in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv has generated expectations of partial sanctions relief and a return of some Russian oil exports to the market. The prospect of a peace agreement strengthens forecasts of increased supply, further dragging oil prices down.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradually increasing production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to suspend further increases in the first quarter of 2026. The cartel is showing caution amid the risk of market oversaturation and expresses readiness to adjust production if necessary, although no official announcement of emergency measures has been made yet.
Collectively, these factors have resulted in oil being significantly cheaper than at the start of the year. There is a high likelihood that Brent and WTI will finish 2025 at the lowest levels since mid-2020. The drop in commodity prices has already significantly impacted the oil products segment.
Oil Products Market and Refining
By the end of the year, oil product prices have declined in line with lower crude oil costs. Gasoline and diesel prices have dropped in most regions around the world. In the US, retail gasoline prices have decreased practically in all states ahead of the holiday season, easing the burden on consumers' wallets. European refineries, having previously pivoted to alternative feedstocks in place of Russian oil, are now assured of stable supplies. Global refineries maintain high processing levels, benefiting from cheaper oil, although fuel demand remains moderate. Overall, the refining margin remains stable, and there is no shortage of gasoline or diesel on the global market.
In Russia, following a sharp rise in gasoline prices at the beginning of autumn, government measures (including temporary export restrictions) have cooled the market. By December, wholesale and retail fuel prices within the country stabilized, reducing social tension and risks for the domestic oil products market.
Gas Market and LNG
The gas market presents a paradoxical situation: despite an early and cold start to winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline. Prices at the Dutch TTF hub have fallen below €30 per MWh—this is the lowest level since spring 2024, approximately 90% lower than the peak crisis levels of 2022 and 45% lower than the prices at the beginning of this year. The main reason is the unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, compensating for reduced pipeline deliveries from Russia. Underground gas storage in the EU is filled to about 75%. Although this is below historic averages for December, combined with record LNG imports, it is enough to maintain stable prices even in freezing conditions.
- Europe: Record levels of LNG imports have allowed gas prices to decrease despite higher consumption during the heating season. Over half of Europe's LNG imports in 2025 came from US suppliers redirecting tankers from Asian markets. As a result, the spread between high European prices and lower American ones has narrowed significantly.
- USA: In North America, gas futures have risen amid forecasts of unusually cold weather. At the Henry Hub, prices climbed above $5 per MMBtu due to threats of a polar vortex and increased heating demand. Nevertheless, domestic gas production in the US remains at record-high levels, keeping price growth in check as the weather normalizes.
- Asia: By the end of the year, the gas market in Asia is relatively balanced. Demand in key countries in the region (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, leading to some excess LNG being redirected to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, have remained stable and avoided sharp fluctuations as competition for gas shipments between Europe and Asia has significantly weakened compared to 2022.
Thus, the global gas market is entering winter much more confidently than a year ago. Adequate supplies and flexible supply channels are available to meet needs even during extreme cold. The maneuverability of the LNG market plays a crucial role: tankers are quickly redirected to the needed regions, smoothing local imbalances. If this season's temperature does not exceed the norm, the pricing situation for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal industry reached a historic peak in consumption in 2025, but a slowdown is on the horizon. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption increased by approximately 0.5%—reaching a record 8.85 billion tons. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation in the world, but its share in the energy balance is expected to start gradually declining: analysts predict that global coal demand will plateau, followed by a decline by 2030 due to the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. Regional dynamics, however, vary:
- India: Coal consumption has decreased (only the third time in the last 50 years) due to an unusually strong monsoon season. Abundant rainfall increased hydroelectric generation and reduced demand from coal-fired power plants.
- USA: In the US, coal use has risen. This was aided by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the coal industry. The new presidential administration in Washington has temporarily halted the shutdown of several coal power plants, boosting coal demand for power generation.
- China: The world's largest coal consumer has maintained its usage level compared to last year. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined. However, a gradual reduction in consumption is expected by the end of the decade as massive capacities in wind, solar, and nuclear energy are brought online.
Thus, 2025 is likely to be the peak year for the global coal industry. Going forward, increased competition from gas (where feasible) and especially renewable energy sources will push coal out of the energy balance in many countries. However, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing economies in Asia, where energy consumption growth is still outpacing the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues to transform under the influence of climate agendas and fluctuations in fuel prices. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries have introduced record capacities for solar and wind power. For instance, China has significantly increased solar generation, while new offshore wind farms and large photovoltaic projects have come online in Europe and the US, spurred by government support and private investments. Year-end global investments in green energy remain high, nearly matching fossil fuel investment levels.
The rapid growth of RES, however, brings the challenge of ensuring the resilience of energy systems. This winter in Europe has revealed the challenges of variable weather: periods of low wind and short daylight have increased the load on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries had to temporarily increase gas and coal generation due to an anticyclone that resulted in reduced output from wind farms, leading to price spikes in certain regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growth of RES capacities and a significant share of gas in the energy balance, serious issues with energy supply have been avoided. Governments and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and grid modernization to smooth peak loads and integrate renewable energy.
The climate commitments of countries continue to shape the development trajectory of the industry. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls were made to accelerate the energy transition. A number of countries agreed to triple the introduction of RES capacities by 2030 and significantly improve energy efficiency. Simultaneously, interest in nuclear energy is resurging in many regions: new nuclear power plants are being constructed, and existing plants are having their operational lifetime extended to provide base load generation without carbon emissions. Overall, the electricity sector is moving towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period requires a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental goals.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on global energy markets. The conflict in Eastern Europe and the related restrictions remain in focus:
- Peace Negotiations: In December, the most significant progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine has been observed since the onset of the conflict. The US has expressed readiness to provide Kyiv with security guarantees similar to NATO, with European mediators noting a constructive shift in dialogue. Hopes for a ceasefire have risen significantly, although Moscow states that it will not make territorial concessions. Growing optimism regarding a possible cessation of hostilities has already sparked discussions about the prospects of partial easing of oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the foreseeable future.
- Sanction Pressure: Concurrently, Western countries have signaled their willingness to intensify pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector that may be implemented in the event of a breakdown in negotiations. Earlier in the autumn, the US and UK expanded sanctions against oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating their access to investments and technologies. In Europe, there is also an escalation of legal actions against Russian energy infrastructure: early December saw a Dutch court, responding to a Ukrainian claim, seize assets of the Turkish Stream pipeline operator, showcasing a new level of sanction pressure on export routes.
- Infrastructure Risks: Hostilities and sabotage continue to threaten energy facilities. In the past week, Ukrainian forces have intensified drone attacks on oil infrastructure deep within Russia. Notably, fires have been reported at oil refineries in the Krasnodar region and along the Volga due to drone strikes. Although these incidents have only slightly reduced overall fuel supply, they underscore the ongoing military risks facing the industry until a durable peace is established.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics also impacts the oil market. Following partial easing of sanctions against Venezuela in the autumn, the US has tightened control over compliance with the deal's conditions. In December, there was an incident involving the detention of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil, suspected of breaching licensing conditions. The state company PDVSA faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and revise supply conditions, complicating Caracas's efforts to boost exports, despite a recent allowance for the US to temporarily increase production in exchange for political concessions from the Venezuelan authorities.
Overall, the sanction standoff between Russia and the West, along with other international disagreements, continues to inject uncertainty into the global energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring political developments, as any changes—from breakthroughs in peace dialogue to the imposition of new restrictions—could significantly impact prices for oil, gas, and other energy carriers.
Corporate News and Projects
The world’s largest energy companies and infrastructure projects are concluding the year with a series of important decisions and events:
- Aramco enters the Indian market: Saudi Aramco has revived its plans to invest in a major refining complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the large West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish a foothold in the rapidly growing Indian market and ensure long-term sales channels for its oil.
- New project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another large offshore field in Guyana, aiming to start production by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, solidifying the country’s position as one of the most dynamically growing new oil producers.
- Record offshore wind farm in the North Sea: In the North Sea, the construction of the world's largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW, has been completed. This project, implemented by a consortium of European energy companies, is capable of supplying electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone showcases the potential of large "green" projects and marks an important step in the development of renewable energy.
- Transnational oil transit: Russia’s Transneft and Kazakhstan’s KazTransOil have signed a contract for transporting Kazakh oil through Russia in 2026. The agreement ensures continued cooperation on hydrocarbon exports despite geopolitical complexities and utilizes existing pipeline infrastructure.
Overall, players in the oil, gas, and energy sectors are adapting to the new market reality. Some are reassessing asset portfolios considering geopolitical risks and changing market conditions (like Aramco, which is exploring new sales markets), while others are capitalizing on favorable conditions to increase production and implement projects (like ExxonMobil with partners in Guyana). Simultaneously, investments continue in both traditional oil and gas directions as well as the energy transition—from wind energy to hydrogen technologies. The industry faces the need to find a balance between short-term profitability and long-term decarbonization goals, and this choice will define key strategic decisions for companies at the threshold of 2026.
