Global Energy Sector News for February 10, 2026: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, OPEC+ Decisions, LNG Market, Oil Products and Refineries, Electricity, Renewables, and Coal. Summary and Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
At the start of 2026, the global energy sector exhibits relative stability, despite conflicting factors. Oil prices remain at moderate levels, while the market balances between an anticipated supply surplus and ongoing geopolitical risks. Europe is experiencing volatility in the gas market due to low reserves and weather factors, while the energy transition accelerates: renewable energy sources (RES) hit record adoption rates, and coal demand peaked. Below are the key news and trends from the oil and gas sector and energy market as of today.
Global Oil Market: Surplus and Price Stability
The oil market entered 2026 showing signs of oversupply. According to the IEA, a significant oil surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day (about 4% of global demand) is expected in the first quarter. This is due to total oil production growing faster than demand: OPEC+ countries increased supplies in 2025, and exports from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and other producers also surged. Consequently, global inventories may begin to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Nevertheless, oil prices remain relatively stable for now. Since the beginning of the year, Brent crude has increased by about 5-6%, partially due to geopolitical concerns. Brent is trading in the range of $60–65 per barrel, while WTI stands at around $55–60, close to the levels seen at the end of 2025. Several risk factors are preventing prices from declining: in early January, the US detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, urging oil companies to invest in the country’s production. This briefly disrupted Venezuelan oil supplies. Moreover, Washington hinted at potential strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, while production in Kazakhstan dropped due to technical problems and drone attacks on sites. These events are creating a geopolitical premium in oil prices and sustaining investor interest.
To maintain balance, OPEC+ is adhering to a cautious strategy. The cartel and its allies, including Russia, have decided to pause after a series of production increases: it was agreed to maintain quotas without escalation at least until the end of March 2026. Major exporters aim to prevent market oversaturation: they assess that fundamental market indicators are "healthy," commercial oil inventories remain relatively low, and the goal is to maintain price stability. If needed, OPEC+ reserves the right to adjust production quickly – either by increasing it (returning to previously reduced volumes of 1.65 million barrels per day) or enacting new cuts if market conditions require it. Meanwhile, demand for oil continues to grow moderately: the global demand forecast for 2026 has been upgraded to approximately 0.9–1.0 million barrels per day due to the normalization of the economy and lower prices compared to a year ago. Overall, the oil market is entering the year with a fragile balance: the expected surplus is tempered by OPEC+ efforts and the threat of supply disruptions, keeping oil within a relatively narrow price corridor.
Natural Gas Market: Low Stocks and High Volatility
The global gas market at the beginning of 2026 is experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in Europe. After a calm autumn when prices remained within a narrow range (€28–30 per MWh at the TTF hub), volatility returned in January. In the early weeks of the new year, gas prices in the EU surged dramatically, peaking on January 16 at over €37 per MWh. This was driven by a combination of factors: forecasts of colder weather and the imminent arrival of harsh frosts at the end of January increased demand, while gas storage levels were significantly below average. By mid-January, European underground gas storage facilities were depleted to ~50% of capacity (down from ~62% a year earlier and the five-year average of 67% on that date). This is the lowest fill level observed in recent years (following the crisis winter of 2021/22), and market participants realized that without active imports, Europe would face significant reserve depletion.
Additionally, gas prices were affected by supply disruptions of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US at the start of the year, caused by technical and weather-related factors, as well as geopolitical risks linked to heightened tensions surrounding Iran. Concurrently, demand for LNG in Asia increased due to cold weather, intensifying competition for spot cargoes of fuel. Collectively, these factors prompted traders to close short positions, driving up prices. However, by the end of January, the situation stabilized somewhat: after the initial cold snap, prices retreated to ~€35 per MWh. Analysts note that volatility has returned to the EU gas market, although panic peaks similar to those observed in 2022 are not currently present.
- Low Stocks: As of the end of January, EU storage facilities are only about 45% full (the lowest level for this time of year since 2022). If withdrawals continue at the current pace, by the end of the winter, stocks could drop to 30% or lower. This signifies a need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the summer period to reach the 90% fill level by November 1 (the new EU energy security target).
- LNG Imports: The primary source for replenishment will be LNG imports. Over the past year, Europe increased LNG purchases by ~30%, reaching record levels of ~175 billion cubic meters. In 2026, this figure is expected to rise further: the IEA forecasts global LNG production to increase by ~7%, reaching new historical highs. New export terminals are coming online in North America (USA, Canada, Mexico), with a total of up to 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity (about +50% of the current market volume) planned to come into operation by 2025-2030. This will help partially offset the loss of Russian volumes.
- Abandonment of Russian Gas: The EU officially intends to fully cease imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2027. Currently, Russia's share in European imports has declined to ~13% (down from 40–45% before 2022). In 2025–2026, the embargo will become stricter, further reducing gas supplies in Europe by tens of billions of cubic meters. This deficit is planned to be covered by LNG from the USA, Qatar, Africa, and other sources. However, analysts warn that such dependence on transatlantic supplies carries risks: according to IEEFA findings, the USA accounted for 57% of LNG supplies to the EU in 2025, and that share could rise to 75–80% by 2030, contradicting diversification goals.
- Price Anomalies: Interestingly, the futures price structure for gas in Europe currently shows a reversal – summer contracts for 2026 are trading at higher prices than winter 2026/27 contracts. This backwardation contrasts with typical logic (where winter gas should be more expensive than summer gas) and may hinder storage operators' economic justification for filling storage. Possible explanations include market expectations of stable year-round LNG supplies or reliance on government intervention (subsidies, storage filling mandates). Nonetheless, experts caution that if price signals do not normalize and storage facilities are not filled adequately, Europe risks entering the next winter without the necessary buffer, leading to a new price surge.
Overall, the natural gas market remains resource-rich but extremely sensitive to weather and politics. A significant effort is required to replenish stocks in the summer, and much will depend on global LNG trade dynamics and coordination measures at the EU level. For now, the current price softness (compared to the crisis year of 2022) reflects a certain calm among traders – however, this calm may prove deceptive if winter lingers or new supply disruptions arise.
Oil Products and Refining (Refineries)
The oil products segment is experiencing mixed trends at the start of the year. On one hand, global demand for oil products, particularly jet fuel and diesel, remains high due to economic recovery and transport activity. On the other hand, product supply increases due to rising refining output in Asia and the Middle East, although sanctions and incidents impact it. In the early months of the year, the global oil refining sector typically enters a maintenance season: many refineries undergo scheduled repairs. Consequently, total refining in the first quarter declines, temporarily reducing oil demand and contributing to an increase in raw material surplus. The IEA notes that the impending widespread refinery maintenance amplifies the oil glut in the market – without additional production cuts, it may be challenging to avoid storage accumulation during this period.
At the same time, refining margins generally remain healthy. By the end of 2025, global refining capacities were operating at high utilization rates: for instance, oil refining in China set a record, reaching ~14.8 million barrels/day (on average for 2025, +600,000 barrels compared to 2024). This is attributed to the launch of new refineries and China's desire to increase oil product exports. South Korea also reached a record for diesel exports in 2025, as Asian producers are filling the niche created by the rerouting of flows from Russia. Robust diesel demand (especially in the transport and industrial sectors) sustains high prices for distillates and profits for diesel-oriented refineries. In contrast, the gasoline market is witnessing some weakening: excess capacities and slowing growth in vehicle traffic have led gasoline margins in Asia and Europe to fall to their lowest levels in the past year. Nonetheless, the upcoming summer driving season may change the situation.
Russian Oil Products and Sanctions: It is noteworthy to mention the altered flows of Russian oil products to the global market under sanction pressure. At the end of 2025, the US imposed additional sanctions against major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating trade in their refined products. According to industry sources, at the beginning of 2026, Russian fuel oil exports to Asia slowed down: enhanced scrutiny over sanctions compliance and fears of secondary measures make many buyers avoid direct transactions. Fuel oil shipments to Asian countries in January fell for the third month in a row, reaching about half of the volume a year ago (approximately 1.2 million tons compared to 2.5 million tons in January 2025). Some cargoes are being diverted to storage and floating storage in anticipation of resale, while some tankers are taking roundabout routes around Africa, indicating a non-final destination. Traders note that the sale scheme of Russian products has become more complicated – often, multi-level supply chains are used with transshipments in neutral waters to mask the fuel's origin.
In addition to sanctions, military means have also succeeded in reducing exports of Russian products: Ukrainian drone strikes on border refineries in Russia in autumn 2025 damaged several facilities, constraining output. Consequently, the supply of Russian fuel oils and other heavy oil products in the Asian market has somewhat decreased at the start of 2026, which has even supported regional prices for these types of fuel. However, key sales directions for Moscow remain Southeast Asian countries, China, and the Middle East – these continue to receive the bulk of exporters' volumes while Western sanctions hamper access to traditional markets.
Overall, the global oil product market is gradually realigning itself geospatially. A significant portion of refining capacity growth in the coming years will occur in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa, where up to 80–90% of new refineries are being launched. This intensifies competition for fuel market shares. In contrast, Europe has seen several refineries reduce operational performance due to high energy prices and the cessation of cheap Russian crude supplies. The EU fully banned imports of Russian oil products in early 2023, and over the past two years, European refineries have reoriented to other grades of oil, albeit at the cost of increased expenses. By the end of winter 2026, prices for major oil products remain relatively stable: diesel trades at persistently high levels due to limited global supply, while gasoline and fuel oil prices exhibit moderate dynamics. The upcoming readiness of refineries to come out of maintenance in spring may boost product supply, but much will depend on seasonal demand and the global economy.
Coal: Record Demand and Signs of Decline
Despite the active growth of renewable energy, coal still maintains a significant role in the global energy mix. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand reached a historic high in 2025 – around 8.85 billion tons per year (equivalent to ~+0.5% compared to 2024). Therefore, coal consumption set a record for the second consecutive year, primarily due to economic recovery post-pandemic and increased electricity demand. However, experts note that this peak may plateau: global coal consumption is expected to start declining slowly but steadily by the end of the decade.
Trends are heterogeneous across regions. In China – the largest coal consumer (accounting for more than half of global volume) – coal usage in 2025 remained consistently high, and only a slight decline is projected by 2030 due to the large-scale introduction of RES and nuclear power plants. India, the second-largest market, unexpectedly reduced coal burning in 2025 – only the third time in 50 years. This was driven by extremely strong monsoons: heavy rainfall filled reservoirs, and record hydropower generation reduced the need for coal-fired generation, further influenced by slower industrial growth. Meanwhile, the USA increased coal consumption in 2025 – the rise was attributed to high natural gas prices, making coal-fired generation more economically viable in certain regions. Additionally, the political factor played a role: President Donald Trump, who took office in early 2025, signed an order supporting coal-fired power plants, preventing their closure, and stimulating production. This measure temporarily revitalized the US coal sector, although the long-term competitiveness of coal there is declining.
In Europe, however, coal usage continued to decline in 2025, as EU countries strive to meet climate targets and replace coal with gas and RES. The share of coal in power generation in the EU dropped below 15%, and this trend accelerated after 2022 when Europe drastically curtailed imports of Russian coal (from 50% to 0% of its consumption). Overall, the IEA believes that global coal consumption will plateau in the coming years and subsequently decline: renewables, natural gas, and nuclear energy are gradually crowding coal out of the energy sector, especially in electricity production. By 2025, global generation from RES matched coal generation for the first time in volume. However, the transition will be gradual. Experts warn that should electricity demand grow more rapidly or delays occur in deploying clean capacities, coal demand may temporarily exceed forecasts. Much will particularly depend on China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined: any fluctuations in the Chinese economy are instantly reflected in the coal market.
For now, the coal sector is holding up well: coal prices remain elevated due to demand in Asia. However, mining companies and energy producers are already preparing for the inevitable transformation. Investments are increasingly directed not toward new mines but toward retrofitting operations, carbon capture technologies, and social programs for coal-dependent regions. In the long run, abandonment of coal is viewed as one of the key steps towards achieving climate goals to restrict global warming.
Electricity and Renewables: The Green Leap
The electric power sector is entering a new era of accelerated development of renewable technologies. According to the IEA report "Electricity 2026," significant shifts in generation structure are expected within this decade. In 2025, the world's electricity generation from RES (primarily solar and wind power plants) equaled that of coal plants, and starting from 2026, clean sources are projected to surpass coal. By 2030, the combined share of renewable energy and nuclear power in global electricity production is expected to reach 50%. The rapid growth is predominantly driven by solar energy: new photovoltaic plants are being introduced annually, adding over 600 TWh of generation each year. Together with wind energy, the total increase in renewable generation by 2030 is estimated to be around 1000 TWh annually (+8% compared to current levels).
At the same time, demand for electricity worldwide is also rising sharply – averaging 3–4% annually from 2024 to 2030, which is 2.5 times faster than growth in total energy consumption. Reasons include the industrialization of developing countries, mass adoption of electric transport (electric vehicles, electric public transport), and digitalization (data centers, increased use of air conditioning and electronics). Consequently, even with rapid RES expansion, fossil fuel generation cannot be completely displaced immediately: gas-fired electricity generation is also increasing to balance energy systems. Natural gas is regarded as a "transition fuel," and gas generation will grow until 2030, although at a slower pace than renewables.
Infrastructure and Reliability: Such high dynamics pose challenges for infrastructure. Existing electrical grids and energy storage systems require substantial investments to integrate intermittent sources like solar and wind. The IEA emphasizes that to meet growing demand and ensure reliability, annual investments in electricity networks must increase by 50% by 2030 (compared to the previous decade's levels). Breakthroughs in storage technologies and load management are also needed to smooth peaks and variations in RES generation.
Europe vs. USA: Climate Policy and Wind: The global energy transition is uneven: divergences appear in the policies of different countries. In the European Union, the green agenda remains a priority – even amid the energy crisis of 2022, the EU is accelerating RES implementation. In 2025, electricity generation from wind and solar energy in the EU surpassed that from fossil fuels for the first time. European governments are keen to expand capacities further: nine countries (including Germany, France, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, etc.) agreed on joint major projects in the North Sea to achieve 300 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2050. By 2030, at least 100 GW of offshore wind energy through cross-border projects is planned. This expansion of RES, ideally, will ensure stable, secure, and affordable energy supply while creating jobs and reducing dependency on fuel imports.
However, challenges persist: rising interest rates and material costs in 2024-2025 led to some wind farm tenders (for instance, in Germany and the UK) failing to attract bids – investors demanded better project economics. European leaders acknowledge the issue and are ready to enhance support: additional guarantees, targeted subsidies, and contracts-for-difference mechanisms are discussed to make wind farm construction more attractive for businesses.
In contrast, the USA has seen a partial rollback of government support for clean energy. The new administration, which took office in 2025, is skeptical of several green initiatives. President Trump publicly criticized the European course towards RES, labeling wind turbines as "unprofitable" and claiming (without evidence) that "the more wind turbines there are, the more money the country loses." Accordingly, US authorities have shifted toward supporting traditional sources: beyond supporting coal, offshore wind energy projects are now under scrutiny. In December 2025, the US Department of the Interior unexpectedly suspended several large offshore wind projects, citing new data about potential threats to national security (e.g., interference with military radars). This decision also affected the nearly completed Vineyard Wind project off the coast of Massachusetts. Major energy firms investing in wind farms (Avangrid/Iberdrola, Orsted, etc.) contested the moratorium in court. In January 2026, they achieved initial victories: a federal judge blocked the administration's order, allowing construction on Vineyard Wind (95% complete) to resume. Legal battles continue, and the industry hopes that projects will not lose significant time. Nevertheless, the uncertainty created by such actions might cool investor interest in US RES while Europe demonstrates determination to move forward.
Other RES Directions: Renewable energy is not just wind and solar. In many countries, the construction of energy storage infrastructure (industrial batteries), development of hydroelectric projects, and geothermal installations is gaining momentum. There is also a resurgence of interest in nuclear energy as a carbon-free source. For example, private investors are supporting new small modular reactor projects. In Italy, the startup Newcleo secured €75 million in funding in February for the development of innovative compact reactors working on recycled nuclear fuel. The company has already raised €645 million since 2021 and plans accelerated development: constructing a pilot reactor and entering the US market – one of the most dynamic markets for advanced nuclear technologies. Such initiatives indicate that the nuclear sector could play a vital role in decarbonization alongside RES.
As a result of efforts towards the energy transition, noticeable effects on electricity prices are already observable in various regions. For instance, in Europe, wholesale electricity prices sank at the end of 2025 compared to autumn—affected by the seasonal decline in demand and high RES generation (windy and warm weather). However, reliability problems remain: Ukraine's energy infrastructure is in poor condition due to ongoing shelling, leading to electricity supply interruptions during winter. On a global scale, half of the new generation capacities being launched worldwide are now attributed to solar and wind stations. This fuels optimism that while fossil fuels will still be present in the mix for a long time, the energy transition is gaining irreversible momentum.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Hopes and Reality
Political factors continue to largely determine the situation in energy markets. Sanction conflicts between the West and major energy resource suppliers—Russia, Iran, Venezuela—remain in effect, although several market participants express hopes for their easing. Some positive signals are emerging: the capture and ousting of Nicolás Maduro opens the door for potential normalization of Venezuela's oil sector. Investors hope that with the political regime change in Caracas, the US will gradually ease sanctions and allow significant volumes of Venezuelan oil (the country possesses some of the world's largest resources) back into the market. This could potentially increase heavy oil supply and help to stabilize prices for raw commodities and oil products. For now, however, in the short term, Maduro's ousting has led to disruptions: Venezuela's exports in January dropped by about 0.5 million barrels per day, significantly affecting Asian refineries that consume its oil.
The situation regarding Iran remains tense as well. Rumors of possible US or Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are agitating the market: Iran is a key oil producer within OPEC, and any military actions could disrupt export terminals or frighten shipping companies. Although direct conflict has been avoided so far, rhetoric has intensified, and traders are factoring in a specific premium for contingencies in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid these factors, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its fourth year and continues to impact the energy sector. Europe has effectively ceased receiving energy resources from Russia, restructuring its logistics to alternatives, while Russia has redirected its oil and gas exports to Asia. However, the Russian sector is facing new challenges: as previously mentioned, the expansion of US sanctions at the end of 2025 has complicated operations even with friendly buyers in Asia. Many of them prefer to wait for a softening of sanctions or demand larger discounts for the risk involved. Additionally, drone attacks on infrastructures have increased – besides strikes on refineries, attacks on oil depots and pipelines are recorded. As a result, according to industry monitoring, oil production in Russia began to decline slightly in December and January. While in 2025 Russia successfully restored production volumes (after the declines of 2022-2023), the start of 2026 has shown a drop for the second consecutive month. Analysts attribute this to the exhaustion of easy redirection routes and difficulties in maintaining fields under sanctions. Russian oil exports by sea remain consistently high in volume, but they require increasingly lengthy routes and a large fleet of "shadow" tankers, which are at risk of intensified scrutiny.
Thus, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant factor. Nevertheless, there is cautious optimism in the market: some experts believe that the sharpest phases of energy confrontation have already passed. Importing countries have adapted to new conditions, while exporters are seeking ways to navigate the restrictions. However, diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation have yet to yield tangible results. Investors are keeping a close eye on news from Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing. Any signals regarding potential negotiations or easing sanctions could significantly influence market sentiment. Until then, politics will continue to introduce an element of volatility: whether through new sanctions packages, unexpected agreements, or flare-ups in conflicts, energy markets react swiftly to such developments with price fluctuations and shifts in raw material flows.
In conclusion, it can be stated that hopes for easing sanctions in 2026 remain just that—hopes—the main restrictions persist, and market participants are learning to operate amidst political fragmentation. At the same time, the moderate price stability achieved for oil and gas, due to OPEC+ efforts and market adaptations, provides a basis for expecting that the sector will navigate this current period without turbulence unless new major crises emerge.
Investments and Corporate News in the Sector
Investor attention within the energy sector is focused on both the high profitability of traditional oil and gas companies and the large investments in energy transition projects. Below are some key corporate and investment events:
- Record profits for oil and gas companies: Major oil companies ended 2025 with high financial results. For instance, ExxonMobil's net profit for 2025 was $28.8 billion. Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco consistently earns around $25–30 billion quarterly (in the third quarter of 2025 alone, it earned $28 billion). These colossal earnings enabled companies to continue large stock repurchase programs and dividend payouts, as well as invest in new production projects. Oil and gas giants are investing in field development—ranging from shale plays in the Permian Basin in the USA to deep-water projects off the coast of Brazil and gas in East Africa. Simultaneously, many of them are announcing investments in low-carbon directions (renewable energy, hydrogen, CO2 capture), although the share of these investments is still modest compared to core business activities.
- Deals and projects in renewable energy: A steady flow of capital into "green" projects continues worldwide. Governments are entering major agreements with investors: for example, Egypt signed contracts worth $1.8 billion in January aimed at advancing RES. Plans include building a 1.7 GW solar power plant with a 4 GWh storage system in Upper Egypt (the Scatec project) and establishing a manufacturing facility by the Chinese firm Sungrow for industrial batteries in the Suez economic zone. Egypt aims to raise the share of renewable generation to 42% by 2030, and international partners are helping to bring this ambitious goal closer. Such projects highlight high activity in emerging markets.
- New technologies and startups: Innovative energy companies are also attracting funding. In addition to the aforementioned Italian nuclear startup Newcleo, projects are developing in the field of hydrogen and synthetic fuels. For instance, the Chilean-American company HIF Global is advancing the construction of a $4 billion green hydrogen and e-fuel (methanol) production facility in Brazil. Recently, management reported that they succeeded in optimizing the project and significantly lowering capital costs—construction is being segmented into stages, each costing less than $1 billion. The Asu port project in Brazil plans to launch its first line by mid-2027, producing ~220,000 tons of "electromethanol" per year from hydrogen and captured CO2. Such initiatives are attracting the interest of automakers and airlines looking to explore new fuel options.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: The resource sector is undergoing consolidation processes. In 2025, two major deals in the oil industry reshaped the landscape: American ExxonMobil and Chevron announced the acquisition of shale companies Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess Corp, respectively, strengthening their positions in the USA. At the beginning of 2026, negotiations continued in adjacent sectors—discussions on a mega-merger of mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore (valued at ~$200+ billion) aimed, among other things, at merging coal assets, but the parties ultimately abandoned merger plans. Large players are striving to increase scale and synergy, but antitrust risks and integration complexities may hinder such mega-deals.
- Investment Climate: Overall, investments in the energy sector continue at high levels. According to BloombergNEF estimates, total global investments in the energy transition (RES, power grids, storage, electric vehicles, etc.) in 2025 equalled those in fossil fuel energy for the first time. Banks and funds are redirecting strategies toward sustainable financing, although oil and gas will continue to receive a significant share of capital for the foreseeable future. For investors, the key question now is finding a balance between the traditional profitability of oil and gas and the promising "green" directions. Many are choosing a dual approach: locking in profits from high oil/gas prices while simultaneously investing in future renewable markets to capture the next wave of growth.
Corporate news in the energy sector also includes the publication of financial reports for the past year, personnel appointments, and technological breakthroughs. Riding the wave of profits, some companies are announcing dividend increases and stock buybacks, much to the delight of shareholders. Simultaneously, the oil and gas companies are under societal pressure to adopt new emissions reduction targets and invest in climate initiatives, striving to improve their image and positioning in a changing world. Ultimately, the energy business globally seeks to demonstrate resilience and adaptability: to generate record profits today while laying the groundwork for success in a low-carbon economy tomorrow.
Expectations and Forecasts
On the threshold of the end of winter 2026, experts in the oil and gas sector offer cautiously optimistic forecasts. The main scenario for the coming months is the maintenance of relative stability in hydrocarbon prices. Authorities and market participants have learned lessons from the disruptions of the early 2020s, establishing response mechanisms: from strategic reserves and OPEC+ agreements to energy efficiency programs. Price forecasts from relevant agencies indicate a possible slight decline in oil quotations in the second half of 2026, if the anticipated supply surplus unfolds as planned (EIA expects a gradual decrease of Brent to $55 per barrel by the end of the year). However, any significant disruptions – such as escalation of conflict in the Middle East or hurricanes damaging LNG facilities – could temporarily spike prices.
In the gas sphere, much will depend on the course of summer: a mild summer and high LNG output would make filling storage easier, potentially maintaining European gas prices in the average range of €25–30 per MWh. Nonetheless, competitive rivalry with Asia for new LNG volumes, along with weather uncertainty (for example, the risk of droughts impacting hydropower generation or early frosts) adds ambiguity. Nevertheless, if stocks are close to target levels by autumn, Europe will enter the next winter more confidently than in previous years.
The active development of renewable energy will continue. It is likely that 2026 will again set a record for the installation of solar and wind capacities, especially in China, the USA (despite political obstacles—thanks to initiatives from certain states), and the EU. The world may approach a point where every second new power plant is RES. This will gradually change market structures: the demand for natural gas in electricity generation may grow more slowly, while coal may decline faster than forecasts if RES construction exceeds plans. The market will also closely monitor the development of energy storage and hydrogen technologies—a breakthrough in these areas could accelerate the energy transition.
On the political front, market participants will be watching for potential negotiations and elections. In 2026, presidential elections are expected in several supplier countries, which may influence their energy policies. Any moves toward peace agreements or easing some sanctions could dramatically reshape trade flows—for example, the return of Iranian oil to the market or increased Venezuelan exports would alter balances. Conversely, increased sanctions or new conflicts (such as around Taiwan or in other regions) could introduce new risks to critical raw material supplies.
Overall, investors and analysts are inclined to believe that 2026 will be characterized by adaptation and resilience. Energy markets are no longer as chaotic as during the height of the disruptions and demonstrate a capacity for self-regulation. With prudent policies from both states and companies, the energy sector will continue to provide the global economy with the fuel and energy it needs, gradually transforming under the influence of new technologies and the requirements of the times.
