Global Oil and Gas Industry and Energy News as of January 6, 2026: Oil and Gas, Renewable Energy, Coal, Electricity, Refineries, Commodities Markets, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Main Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 closed for the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) against a backdrop of conflicting factors: oil prices decreased nearly 20% over the year due to concerns about oversupply, while ongoing geopolitical tensions maintained demand for "safe" assets. This combination of factors creates an ambiguous environment for market participants and investors, compelling them to closely monitor the situation. Experts believe that in 2026, an oversupply may form in the oil market, exerting downward pressure on prices. However, local factors—such as ongoing Western sanctions (including the EU embargo on petroleum products from Russia) and production disruptions (resulting from recent attacks on several oil refining facilities)—limit exports and prevent prices from collapsing, particularly supporting high margins on diesel fuel.
Gas market trends are changing even more rapidly: Europe is accelerating the reduction of pipeline gas supplies from Russia (transit through Ukraine has effectively ceased by the end of 2025) and plans to fully abandon Russian gas by 2028, increasing LNG imports. Simultaneously, some Asian countries are restructuring their supply routes in response to trade tensions, reducing purchases of American LNG due to tariffs imposed on energy carriers from the U.S. Meanwhile, global electricity demand continues to grow rapidly—driven by the boom in data centers, the development of artificial intelligence technologies, and the mass electrification of transportation and public utilities—which stimulates investment in renewable energy and energy storage systems. Additionally, the relatively mild winter in Europe at the beginning of the heating season helps stabilize gas prices and ensures supply stability, easing potential market unrest.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Outlook: Experts predict that in 2026, Brent crude will trade in the range of approximately $60–65 per barrel. The total supply is expected to exceed global demand by about 3–4 million barrels per day in the coming months, leading to an accumulation of commercial oil stocks.
- OPEC+ Policy: The OPEC+ alliance is refraining from increasing production and maintaining current production restrictions. The total volume of cuts under the agreement is approximately 3.2 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand).
- Demand: The global economy is showing steady growth, leading to further increases in global oil consumption by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Demand is expanding most actively in Asia and the Middle East, while U.S. shale oil production is beginning to gradually decline.
- Geopolitics: A potential peaceful resolution to the conflict surrounding Ukraine could sharply shift the balance in the oil market. Lifting sanctions and returning significant volumes of Russian oil to the global market would increase supply and intensify price pressure, while continuing restrictions would help keep prices elevated.
Gas Market: Supply and Demand
- Pipeline Supplies: Russia's natural gas exports via pipelines to Europe have decreased by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the cessation of transit through Ukraine. With the EU aiming to fully eliminate imports of Russian gas by 2028, only a few alternative routes remain for deliveries from Russia (mainly through Turkey).
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are sharply increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries to offset the decline in pipeline supplies. At the same time, some Asian countries have reduced imports of American LNG due to imposed tariffs; on the contrary, demand for liquefied gas in China and India continues to rise, as these economies strive to diversify fuel sources and strengthen energy security.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in gas infrastructure development and storage expansions, aiming to enhance its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to continue to increase until 2035–2040, reaching about 620–650 billion cubic meters per year; this is stimulating further expansion of national gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Many countries are experiencing record growth in electricity consumption. In the U.S., annual electricity consumption may exceed 4.2 trillion kWh as early as 2026, driven by the boom in data centers, the implementation of artificial intelligence, and active electrification of transport and utilities.
- Share of Renewable Energy: The contribution of renewable energy sources to global generation continues to rise steadily. It is forecasted that by 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation will exceed 4.6 TW (about 80% of this volume will be from solar power plants). Accelerated growth in generation based on wind and solar energy is expected in the coming years due to government incentives and decreasing technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The deployment of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) is rapidly gaining momentum. Chinese companies are leading in this sector—their export of lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage increased by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage technologies are also expanding and are expected to surpass $60 billion by the end of this year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption reached a record 8.85 billion tons by the end of 2025 (0.5% more than the previous year) and is expected to gradually decline towards the end of the decade. This will be driven by the active growth of capacities in renewable, nuclear, and gas energy, which are gradually displacing coal from the energy balance.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to unusually heavy rains and record hydroelectric generation, whereas in the U.S., coal use has risen amid rising natural gas prices. China—the largest coal consumer in the world (its consumption is approximately 30% higher than the combined volume of other countries)—stabilized its consumption in 2025, but it is expected that by the 2030s, the share of coal in China's energy balance will begin to decrease.
- Environmental Factors: Governments continue to seek a balance between climate goals and energy security. Despite strict regulation focused on decarbonization, the coal industry remains an important part of energy supply in several regions, creating uncertainty for investors and complicating strategic planning in energy.
Refining and Petroleum Products
- Diesel Fuel Shortage: In 2025, the diesel refining margin in Europe increased by approximately 30%, despite falling oil prices. This situation is attributed to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU embargo on petroleum products from Russian oil. The limited supply of diesel fractions supports high price spreads on petroleum products.
- New Capacities: The launch of large new refineries in developed countries is not expected in the coming years, thus maintaining a structural deficit in the petroleum products market. Many analysts believe that extremely high refining margins will persist until additional oil refining capacities come online.
- Venezuela: State-owned oil company PDVSA is forced to accumulate heavy crude oil residues in tanks, as U.S. sanctions continue to limit the export of Venezuelan fuel oil and other fuels. This exacerbates the shortage of marine (bunkering) fuel on the global market, particularly affecting countries dependent on supplies from Venezuela.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major oil and gas companies continue to enter into large agreements for project development. For instance, Italian company Saipem received a $425 million contract for the development of the Sakarya gas field in Turkey. British independent company Harbour Energy became the operator of the Zama oil field in Mexico (with a resource base of about 750 million barrels) and simultaneously secured $3.2 billion in deals for project development in the Gulf of Mexico, significantly strengthening its position in the region.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and gained control over the assets of LLOG in the Gulf of Mexico. These deals allowed Harbour to become the operator of two of the largest independent oil and gas projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulatory bodies continue to influence the industry. In Serbia, the NIS refinery (controlled by Gazprom Neft) received a temporary license from OFAC allowing it to maintain operational activity until January 23, 2026. This step enabled the facility to resume operations after being forced to shut down due to U.S. sanctions; however, the future of the license remains uncertain.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Stock Market Trends: The dynamics of stock indices for companies in the energy sector generally reflect the situation in the commodities markets. At the end of 2025, key stock indices in the Middle East decreased following the drop in oil prices (for example, the main index in Saudi Arabia fell by about 1%), while the shares of the largest global oil and gas corporations showed moderate declines.
- Monetary Policy: Decisions made by central banks directly impact the investment climate. For instance, in Egypt, a 100 basis point cut in the key interest rate at the end of the year triggered a roughly 0.9% increase in the national stock index, bolstering domestic demand. Similar measures to ease monetary policy are being discussed in other emerging economies, which in the future may create more favorable conditions for oil and gas sector companies.
