Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 13, 2025: Oil and Gas Dynamics, Global Energy, Sanctions, Exports, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex. An Analytical Review for Investors and Industry Participants.
The Global Oil Market: Oversupply and Cautious Demand Limit Price Growth
Global oil prices have stabilized at a relatively low level by the end of the year: Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while WTI is around $58. Recent signals regarding a potential easing of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have provided a minor boost to prices; however, overall, oil has decreased by approximately 15% since the beginning of 2025 due to fears of oversupply amid moderate demand growth. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are adhering to a cautious strategy of production management. At the December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ continues to hold significant production capacity in reserve (about 3 million barrels per day) to prevent a price collapse. With Brent around $60, cartel representatives emphasize the priority of stabilizing the market over an immediate increase in exports, considering the potential for reduced demand in the future.
Several key factors affect oil price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing significantly slower than in previous years. The increase in demand in 2025 is estimated to be less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to approximately +2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturns and energy-saving measures following a period of high prices, as well as slowing industrial growth in China, are limiting consumption growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of 2025 as previous restrictions eased; however, fears of market oversaturation are now holding back plans for further increases in output. The decision to maintain production cuts into early 2026 indicates the coalition's readiness to prevent a surplus: agreement participants can quickly adjust exports if prices decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against major oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) continue to limit supply and support prices. However, no new significant shocks have occurred; on the contrary, signs of dialogue are emerging (for example, US and Turkish proposals for negotiations), which somewhat reduces the “risk premium.” As a result, the oil market remains in a relatively narrow price range without sharp jumps.
The Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Increasing Supply
The gas market situation at the end of 2025 is relatively calm, in stark contrast to the frenzy experienced two years ago. The European Union enters winter without signs of gas shortages: EU underground storage facilities are over 70% full, significantly above the average level for December. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are holding around €30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than the peaks of 2022. Lost volumes from Russian pipeline gas are almost completely compensated by record LNG imports from alternative sources—terminals are actively receiving fuel from the US, Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow due to the commissioning of new capacities. The US is launching large export terminals (e.g., Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), reinforcing America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar, as part of the North Field expansion, plans to increase LNG output to 126 million tons per year by 2027, having contracted significant volumes for buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also starting up in other regions (Australia, Africa), intensifying competition in the liquefied gas market.
At the same time, demand for gas is growing at moderate rates. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased batches to the spot market due to temporary weakened domestic consumption. Overall, the expansion of supply and restrained demand keep global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, weather remains a critical factor: in the event of abnormal cold or supply disruptions in winter, price spikes could occur. The baseline scenario expects price stability to be maintained thanks to comfortable fuel inventories.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Tough Stance and Search for Compromise
The confrontation between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although by the end of the year, attempts at dialogue have emerged. G7 countries and the EU maintain a tough sanctions line: a ban on Russian oil is in place, the export of petroleum products is restricted, a price ceiling has been introduced, and financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Moreover, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026—alliances intend to close remaining loopholes and are ready to increase pressure if the armed conflict continues.
At the same time, the European Union is taking steps towards full independence from Russian fuel. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a plan to legally reject energy sources from Russia by the end of 2027—ceasing the purchase of natural gas (including LNG), oil, and petroleum products. This step is being hailed in Brussels as the beginning of a new era aimed at permanently freeing European energy from dependence on Russian fuel. The break with Russia is being cemented at the legislative level and is stimulating the development of alternatives—from increasing LNG imports to accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources. Moscow has criticized the EU's strategy, pointing out that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will drive up costs for Europe. Nevertheless, Brussels is demonstrating a determination to pay this price for geopolitical goals; several countries (e.g., Hungary) have already promised to challenge the ban on Russian gas in court, but the overarching European course remains steadfast.
According to media reports, the US has offered allies a plan for gradually reintegrating Russia into the global economy after a peaceful settlement— including lifting sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy resources to Europe. However, EU leaders view such initiatives with caution and rule out any softening of their position without real progress on the Ukrainian front. Against this backdrop, diplomatic signals are intensifying in the search for compromise. On December 12, US President Donald Trump stated that he is "close to a deal" with Moscow and Kyiv regarding conflict resolution—marking the first hint of a possible peace agreement that could potentially ease some energy sanctions. Turkey is also offering its mediation: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed at a meeting in Ashgabat the readiness to host negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in any format. Although no specific agreements have yet been reached, such statements fuel hopes for a future easing of sanctions pressure affecting the industry.
Russia's Pivot to Asian Markets
Facing the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: as early as the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas was dispatched from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant to China. In autumn, Russian LNG supplies to China grew at double-digit rates—Beijing is actively increasing fuel purchases at discounts of 30–40%, ignoring Western sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative outlet and China with cheap raw materials for its economy.
India also remains one of the largest importers of Russian hydrocarbons. After the imposition of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries significantly increased purchases of Urals and other grades of Russian oil at reduced prices. Russian leadership assured partners of their readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and petroleum products. Cheap raw materials from Russia help satisfy India's rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is working to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To solidify the "Eastern pivot," Russia is developing export infrastructure. A project for a new pipeline, "Power of Siberia-2," through Mongolia to China is under discussion, capable of significantly boosting gas supplies to Asia. Simultaneously, a tanker fleet is being established to deliver oil to markets in India, China, and Southeast Asia, which decreases reliance on Western shipping companies and insurers. These steps are aimed at making the redirection of energy flows to the East irreversible and reducing Russia's dependence on the European market. At the same time, Russia is strengthening ties with Middle Eastern partners. At the meeting in Ashgabat, President Putin discussed gas and electricity cooperation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Work is also underway on strategic projects, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran and the development of the international transport corridor "North-South." Such cooperation enhances Russia's integration into the energy chains of the East and South, partially compensating for the rupture in ties with Europe.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine also affects energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone attack damaged the maritime terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk, through which Kazakhstan exports oil. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not been completely halted, Astana has decided to expedite the diversification of routes. The government of Kazakhstan announced the redirection of part of the oil from the giant Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing supplies through Caspian ports to reduce reliance on the traditional route through Russian territory.
To strengthen energy security, Kazakhstan is also planning to build a new oil refining plant (ORP) with foreign capital participation. Expanding domestic capacities for oil products will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and increase the resilience of the gas and oil sector in the face of external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalling. At the UN COP30 Conference (November 2025, Belem, Brazil), a stringent plan to phase out fossil fuels could not be adopted—as several major oil and gas exporters blocked the EU initiative for specific deadlines for the gradual cessation of production. The final agreement is a compromise, shifting the focus to financing adaptation to climate change and general goals of reducing emissions without clear deadlines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the lack of new commitments, leading economies are practically increasing investments in "green" energy. The year 2025 has seen record new installations of solar and wind power plants in many countries. China, India, the US, EU, and others are actively investing in renewable sources, storage systems, and hydrogen technologies in a bid to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, there are also temporary rollbacks from the decarbonization course. High natural gas prices in 2025 forced several countries to increase coal burning for electricity generation in order to navigate the winter season successfully—the global demand for coal remains high. Experts view this step as a temporary measure. As the share of RES grows and energy storage technologies improve, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources will resume its decline. Thus, the long-term trend towards a transition to clean energy remains intact, albeit with certain delays along the way.
Forecasts: The Beginning of 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high inventories and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average Brent price might drop to a range of $55–60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply alter the pricing landscape: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the introduction of new sanctions, and crises in key oil-producing regions (the Middle East, Latin America) could lead to significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, weather will remain a determining factor. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel inventories are sufficient, European gas prices will remain at low levels. However, several weeks of anomalously cold weather could quickly deplete underground storage and provoke price spikes. Furthermore, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector in 2026 will need to adapt to new conditions. Diversifying supply chains, enhancing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will be key to business resilience. The outgoing year 2025 has vividly illustrated the close interconnection of the economy, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to intensify: the global market will balance between oversupply and deficit risks, while the global community and regulators will need to reconcile energy security objectives with climate goals.
