Current Global Oil, Gas, and Energy News for December 16, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Energy Market, RES, Coal, Refineries, Processing, and Global Trends. Detailed Review for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
As of December 16, 2025, significant events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their complexity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a willingness to forgo aspirations for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe – a move that raises hopes for a potential de-escalation of the protracted conflict. At the same time, sanction pressures on Russia are intensifying: the European Union has extended the freeze on Russian assets indefinitely until the conflict ends and is discussing a complete ban on remaining Russian oil deliveries early in 2026, while already agreeing to plans to permanently halt imports of Russian gas by 2027. Fundamental factors of oversupply and sluggish demand continue to dominate the global oil market – benchmark Brent crude hovers around the lower boundary of $60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of power. The European gas market demonstrates relative stability: underground gas storage in the EU is filled to over 85%, providing a buffer ahead of winter and keeping prices at a moderate level. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is picking up speed – new records in generation from renewable sources are being established across various regions, though countries have not yet forsaken traditional resources for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following previous price surges, authorities continue implementing measures aimed at stabilizing the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and renewable sectors, as well as in the oil product and processing markets as of that date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Multi-Year Lows
Global oil prices remain relatively stable yet low, influenced by fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI is near $57–59. Current quotes are approximately 15% lower than year-ago levels, reflecting a gradual market correction following the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022–2023. The primary reason for price pressure remains oversupply against moderate demand growth. In September, global oil production hit a record of 109 million barrels per day, and although volumes declined slightly in November (by about 1.5 million barrels per day) due to targeted OPEC+ restrictions and disruptions in some producing countries, overall supply remains plentiful. Global oil stocks have increased to a maximum in four years – around 8 billion barrels, indicating an oversupply of about 1–2 million barrels per day for much of the year. OPEC+ signals its readiness to maintain or even tighten production limits until 2026, attempting to prevent further price drops. Sanctions against exporters like Russia and Iran have reduced their oil exports, but this is still insufficient for a significant market deficit – other players, including Middle Eastern countries, have ramped up supplies. The market structure is close to contango (where near-term futures prices are lower than those for later delivery), indicating expectations of continued oversupply in the near term. At the same time, geopolitical risks – from the conflict in Eastern Europe to instability in the Middle East – continue to support the market, preventing prices from plunging too low. Consequently, oil quotes remain balanced within a narrow range at multi-year lows but avoid sharp drops, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and uncertainty factors.
Gas Market: Comfortable Supplies in Europe and the Influence of Mild Weather
The European gas market appears calm and balanced as the year comes to a close. Storage levels in the EU remain high – around 85% of total capacity, significantly exceeding average values for December and ensuring reliable supply even with increased gas withdrawals in winter. Exchange prices for gas are maintained at relatively moderate levels: January futures at the TTF hub in Europe are trading around $350 per thousand cubic meters (about $35 per MWh), significantly lower than the peak crisis values from two years prior. Contributing to this are several factors: firstly, relatively mild weather forecasts for late December have reduced heating demand expectations. Secondly, active supply diversification has yielded results – Europe continues to receive stable volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar, and other countries, compensating for the decline in pipeline imports from Russia. Moreover, the EU has reached a political agreement to permanently relinquish Russian gas by 2027, incentivizing long-term contracts with alternative suppliers and the development of its infrastructure (LNG terminals, interconnections).
The global gas market also exhibits moderate dynamics. In the US, natural gas prices (Henry Hub) fell approximately 20% in the first half of December – to below $5 per million British thermal units – due to unusually warm weather and increased production. Northern Asia, the largest consumer of LNG, is facing no shortages this winter: China and Japan have accumulated ample supplies, while spot prices in Asia remain relatively restrained. Thus, the gas sector enters winter in a fairly resilient state. Despite geopolitical tensions and long-term changes in supply structures, the short-term situation is favorable: there are sufficient stocks, prices remain stable, and the market is capable of accommodating demand spikes without serious disruptions. Of course, sudden cold anomalies or supply disruptions could temporarily spike prices, but currently, there are no indications of a new gas crisis.
Electricity: Rising Demand and the Need for Network Modernization
The global electricity sector is experiencing significant structural changes amid rising demand and the energy transition. Electricity consumption in many countries is hitting record levels. In the US, 2025 is expected to see an all-time high of around 4.2 trillion kWh, driven by the growth of data centers (including for AI and cryptocurrencies) as well as the ongoing electrification of transportation and heating. Similar trends are observed in other regions: globally, electricity demand is rising approximately 2–3% per year, outpacing global economic growth, reflecting digitization and the transition from fossil fuels to electricity across various industries.
The generation structure is shifting towards cleaner sources; however, infrastructure challenges are becoming increasingly acute. In Europe, the share of renewable sources in electricity generation approached 50% for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, but this required compensating variable generation against traditional capacities. Periods of weak wind or drought (affecting hydroelectric power) forced some countries to temporarily increase output from gas and even coal plants to meet demand. Electricity transmission networks are under increased strain due to the redistribution of energy flows between regions: for example, excessive solar generation in the south must flow to consumers in the north, and others. The EU plans massive upgrades and expansions of the electricity grid infrastructure, as well as market rule reforms – particularly simplifying permit issuance for building renewable energy generation and energy storage to alleviate "bottlenecks," or else by 2040, up to 300 TWh of renewable energy may remain unused due to network limitations.
Energy experts highlight several priority areas to ensure the resilience of energy systems amidst the energy transition:
- Modernization and expansion of electricity networks for effective energy transmission between regions and integration of renewable sources.
- Massive implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) to smooth peak loads and balance renewable energy output.
- Maintaining sufficient reserve capacities (gas, hydro, and nuclear power plants) in case of abnormal demand spikes or disruptions in renewable generation.
The implementation of these measures requires significant investments but is critically important for maintaining reliable energy supply. As a result, the electricity sector enters 2026 with record demand and a growing share of "green" generation, yet the successful transition to a low-carbon system will depend on the infrastructure's ability to adapt to new realities.
Renewable Energy Sources (RES): New Records and Global Growth
Renewable energy continues to set records and expand its share of the global energy balance. The year 2025 marked a historical event: the total electricity generation from renewable sources (including wind, solar, hydro, and others) for the first time exceeded production from coal worldwide. The rapid growth of solar and wind generation has enabled it to meet the increased demand for electricity – solar power plants alone provided over 300 TWh of additional energy in the first half of the year, equivalent to the annual consumption of a medium-sized country. Simultaneously, global coal-fired power generation has slightly decreased, shrinking coal's share in electricity to approximately 33%, while RES has reached around 34%.
Recent achievements in the field of RES include:
- Record wind generation in the UK – on December 5, wind farms reached a capacity of 23.8 GW, covering over 60% of the country’s electricity needs that day.
- China continues to lead in clean energy expansion: total installed capacity of RES in China reached around 1889 GW (about 56% of all capacities), with more than half of new car sales in the country being electric. This has helped keep CO2 emissions level over the last year and a half.
- Renewable energy dominates the structure of new capacity additions: by the end of 2025, over 90% of all new power plants globally were solar, wind, and other RES projects, with the share of gas and coal in new construction being minimal.
- Investment in "green" energy has hit records in developing countries: for example, in the Philippines, RES projects worth nearly 480 billion pesos were approved in 2025, while several countries in the Middle East and Latin America launched large-scale programs to support solar and wind generation.
Despite impressive successes, the RES sector faces challenges. Regulatory uncertainty and grid constraints in some regions mean that part of the RES potential remains untapped. Experts urge governments and businesses to accelerate efforts to integrate renewables: set ambitious targets, simplify bureaucratic procedures for new projects, invest in smart grids, and energy storage. Nevertheless, the overall direction is clear – renewable energy is becoming the main driver of global generation growth, gradually displacing hydrocarbon sources and bringing the global energy system closer to a more ecological and sustainable model.
Coal: Declining Demand and Price Drops Amidst Energy Transition
The coal sector in 2025 is experiencing pressure from the energy transition and competition from cleaner sources. Global coal demand has stabilized and begun a gradual decline in some key economies. In China and India – countries that traditionally consume a majority of coal – the growth of electricity this year has largely been supported by the introduction of new RES, which has helped maintain coal consumption levels or even reduce it in relative terms. Consequently, the share of coal generation worldwide has decreased by more than 1 percentage point compared to last year.
Global prices for thermal coal also reflect weakened demand. By the end of the year, prices for Australian thermal coal fell below $110 per ton, approaching minimum values in recent months. Since the beginning of 2025, coal prices have declined by approximately 15–20%, driven by high stockpiles, recovery in production following disruptions, and relatively mild winters in major consuming regions. European coal price indexes strengthened somewhat in the autumn on the back of reduced output at nuclear power plants and low RES generation in some weeks, but overall, the trend remains downward.
The structural reduction of coal's role in the energy systems of developed countries continues. Many nations are accelerating plans to phase out coal: in Europe, the last coal-fired power projects are being decommissioned by the end of the decade, Australia has announced the early closure of one of the state's largest power plants six years ahead of schedule, and in the US, coal's share in generation has dropped to 16% and will continue to decrease as new RES and gas capacities are introduced. Nevertheless, coal remains an important element of the global energy landscape – about one-third of electricity generation is still provided by coal-fired power plants, and for several developing countries, coal remains a cheap and accessible fuel for industry. Demand for coal may fluctuate in the next couple of years based on market conditions – gas prices, weather conditions, and economic activity. However, the long-term outlook indicates a gradual sunset of the coal era: investments are flowing into clean energy, financial markets are pricing in an accelerated exit from fossil fuels, and the coal sector is increasingly shifting to the periphery of the global FES.
Oil Products: Price Stabilization After Autumn Shortages
The oil products market shows signs of stabilization by the end of 2025 after the turbulence observed in the autumn. In October – early November, disruptions at several major refineries (scheduled maintenance and unscheduled shutdowns) led to localized shortages of diesel and kerosene in certain markets. Against this backdrop, global refinery margins surged to highs comparable to the period just after the onset of conflict in 2022 – particularly high were the "crack spreads" for diesel fuel, given its boosted demand during the heating season and in industry.
However, by mid-December, the situation normalized. Many refineries resumed full operations, making up for lost fuel production. Gasoline and distillate stocks in the US and Europe began to recover, which lowered wholesale prices. Retail gasoline prices in the US have dropped from summer peaks and are now approximately 5–10% lower than a year ago, thanks to falling oil prices and stabilizing demand. In Europe, diesel prices also rolled back from recent highs, alleviating inflationary pressure on the transport sector. In Asia, where there had been a surge in demand for aviation kerosene due to the recovery of air transportation throughout the year, kerosene imports increased by winter, saturating the market, which halted price growth.
It is noteworthy that changes in global oil product trading continue to be influenced by geopolitics. EU countries have refused to import Russian oil products since February 2023, redirecting their purchases to the Middle East, Asia, and the US. Russia, in turn, has redirected part of its diesel and gasoline exports to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Such a redirection requires time for the market to balance, but overall, the global fuel supply system has adapted: no fuel shortages are observed, although logistics have become lengthier. In the early 2026 outlook, further changes may occur – if the European Commission implements its intentions to completely ban the purchase of Russian oil, it will indirectly affect the oil products market, forcing EU refineries to operate exclusively on alternative feedstock. Nonetheless, currently, the oil products market enters winter relatively calmly: the supply of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels is sufficient to meet demand, and prices fluctuate within traditional seasonal ranges without signs of a new price shock.
Oil Refining: Industry Modernization and Transition to Clean Fuels
Oil refineries worldwide are undergoing a transformation period, striving to adjust to changing demand and environmental regulations. In Europe, a clear trend is noticeable: refineries are shifting towards producing cleaner fuel types. Pressured by the EU's tightening emissions reduction norms and competition from new high-tech refineries in the Middle East and Asia, European refiners are investing billions of euros in modernization. The key objective is to increase the production of eco-friendly products such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biodiesel, renewable propane, and other biofuels, which are in growing demand from the transport sector.
Another direction for development is deepening processing and integration with petrochemicals. Major oil companies seek to enhance margins by processing oil into not only fuel but chemical products (plastics, fertilizers, etc.). Many modern refineries are essentially transforming into integrated complexes capable of flexibly adjusting product output due to market conditions – for instance, increasing jet fuel or residual fuel production when demand for them rises, or processing part of the feedstock into naphtha for petrochemicals.
The main trends in the transformation of oil refining include:
- Decarbonization of processes: implementing carbon capture technologies, transitioning to hydrogen fuels and renewable energy for the energy needs of the refineries themselves, to reduce the carbon footprint of production.
- Optimization of capacities: closing outdated and less efficient refineries in regions with excessive capacities (e.g., in Europe) and launching new modernized plants closer to centers of growing demand – in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Flexibility of raw material bases: the ability to process various types of feedstock – from traditional oil of different grades to biofeedstock (vegetable oils, waste) and synthetic oil. This allows refineries to operate amid changes in supply due to sanctions or market conditions.
The global volume of oil refining is on the rise following the recovery of fuel consumption. According to industry forecasts, by 2026, the total refining throughput worldwide could reach around 84 million barrels per day, exceeding levels from 2024–2025. A significant portion of new capacity additions is attributed to the Middle East (e.g., expansions of major Saudi and Kuwaiti complexes) and Asia (new refineries in China and India), where domestic demand for fuel and petrochemicals is growing. Meanwhile, regional restructuring continues: North America and Europe are consolidating the industry, focusing on efficiency and ecology, while modern "full-cycle" plants are being built in developing economies.
Sanction and geopolitical factors also affect oil refining. Russian refineries, facing embargoes on the export of certain products and periodic restrictions, redirected sales to the domestic market and friendly countries, while the Russian government implemented temporary bans and quotas on the export of gasoline and diesel in the autumn of 2025 to stabilize prices domestically. These measures resulted in the saturation of the domestic market and consequently a decline in retail prices at gas stations in Russia by December. In the long-term, international experts expect that global oil refining will increasingly shift to regions of oil consumption and the rising demand for oil products, as well as adapt to the "green" transition – from producing alternative fuel types to reducing emissions. The refining sector enters 2026 in a relatively sound state – margins for most players remain positive due to the previous period of high prices. However, the continued success of the sector will depend on its capacity to change: to produce cleaner, operate more efficiently, and fit into the new energy reality where the share of oil is progressively diminishing.
