Global Oil, Gas, and Energy News as of December 5, 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, OPEC+ Politics, Sanctions, Europe's and Asia's Energy Market, Russian Energy Sector, Renewable Energy Sources, and Coal. Analysis for Investors and Industry Participants.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 5, 2025, demonstrate a mixed dynamics in global markets amidst cautious hopes for peaceful resolutions and ongoing overproduction risks. Global oil prices remain near multi-month lows: Brent crude is hovering around $62–63 per barrel, while American WTI stands at about $59. This is significantly lower than mid-year levels and reflects a mixture of factors—from expectations of progress in peace negotiations to signs of oversupply. The European gas market, on the other hand, enters winter with relative confidence: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is over 85% full, providing a significant buffer, while wholesale prices (TTF index) remain below €30 per MWh, which is several times lower than the peaks of previous years.
However, geopolitical tensions surrounding energy continue to rise. The West is ramping up sanctions on the Russian energy sector—the European Union recently legally approved a phased rejection of Russian gas imports by 2027 and an accelerated reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Attempts at diplomatic conflict resolution have yet to yield substantial results, maintaining the limitations and risks for supplies. Within Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market following autumn shortages of gasoline and diesel, strictly limiting exports of petroleum products. Concurrently, the global energy sector is accelerating the "green" transition: investments in renewable sources are hitting records, and new incentives are being implemented, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—continue to play a critical role in the energy balance of most countries. Full analysis of the situation is available for investors and industry participants.
Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and Oversupply Pressing Prices
As of early December, oil prices remain under pressure and exhibit volatility near local lows. The North Sea Brent blend has dropped to around $62 per barrel after relative stability in the autumn, and WTI futures have fallen to $59. Current quotes are approximately 15% lower than levels a year ago. The market is pricing in the likely softening of restrictions on Russian oil in the event of successful peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington, reducing the geopolitical premium in prices. At the same time, concerns about oversupply are increasing: industry data show a rise in crude oil and fuel inventories, while the seasonal decline in demand at the end of the year and a slowing Chinese economy are limiting consumption. The OPEC+ oil alliance confirmed at its November 30 meeting that it would maintain current production quotas until the end of 2026, signaling a reluctance to increase supply and risk a price collapse. As a result, the combined influence of these factors has shifted the market balance towards oversupply. Pricing remains low as market participants assess the prospects for a peace agreement and further steps by OPEC+ in response to changing conditions.
Gas Market: Winter Begins with Comfortable Reserves and Moderate Prices
The European natural gas market is approaching the peak heating season without severe disruptions. Thanks to timely fuel injections and a mild start to winter, EU countries are entering December with significantly filled gas storage facilities and relatively low prices. This reduces the threat of a repeat of the crisis phenomena of 2022. Key factors influencing the current situation in Europe’s gas market include:
- High UGS Fill Levels: According to industry monitoring, the average level of gas storage fill in the EU exceeds 85%, substantially higher than the norm for the start of winter. The accumulated reserves create a reliable "safety cushion" in case of extended cold spells and supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. Reduced demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the decrease in pipeline supplies from Russia. As a result, the influx of LNG remains high, helping to keep prices at moderate levels.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the start of winter and energy conservation measures are curbing gas consumption growth. At the same time, the EU is diversifying its sources: imports of gas from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, enhancing energy security and reducing dependence on Russian supplies.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale prices for gas are now nearly three times lower than last year's extreme peaks. The Dutch TTF index is holding around €28–30 per MWh. Storage fill levels and market balancing have helped avoid new price spikes even amid reduced gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe enters winter with a substantial safety reserve in the gas market. Even in the event of colder weather, the accumulated reserves and flexible LNG supply chains can mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand, particularly if energy needs in Asia begin to rise again.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Extended Export Restrictions
In autumn 2025, Russia faced exacerbated issues of gasoline and diesel shortages in the domestic market due to the confluence of several factors. Rising seasonal demand (the harvest campaign increased fuel consumption) coincided with a reduction in supply from refineries (refineries reduced output due to unscheduled repairs and drone attacks on infrastructure). Disruptions in gasoline supplies occurred in several regions, prompting the government to intervene promptly to stabilize the situation. Authorities implemented emergency measures, which continue to be in effect:
- Gasoline Export Ban: The Russian government imposed a temporary full ban on the export of automobile gasoline by all producers and traders (excluding supplies under intergovernmental agreements) at the end of August. Initially designated until October, the measure has been extended until at least December 31, 2025, due to continued tensions in the domestic fuel market.
- Diesel Export Restrictions: Simultaneously, until the end of the year, the export of diesel fuel is prohibited for independent traders. Oil companies with their own refineries are allowed limited diesel fuel exports to avoid halting production. This partial ban aims to ensure sufficient supply of petroleum products within the country and prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to officials, the autumn fuel crisis is local and temporary. Emergency reserves have been utilized, and refining is gradually recovering following unscheduled downtimes. By the beginning of winter, the situation has somewhat stabilized: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from peak levels in September, although they are still above last year's levels. The government's priority is to fully meet domestic market needs and prevent further price spikes, meaning that stringent export restrictions may be extended into 2026 if necessary.
Sanctions and Policy: Intensified Western Pressure and the Search for Compromises
The collective West continues to tighten its policy toward the Russian energy sector, showing no signs of softening sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized a plan for a complete and indefinite phase-out of imports of Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with the cessation of LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This move aims to deprive Moscow of a significant portion of its export revenues in the medium term. Traditionally, Hungary and Slovakia, which are dependent on Russian resources, opposed the initiative, but their objections could not block the overall EU decision.
Concurrently, the United States is ramping up its own pressure. The Trump administration is taking a hard stance against countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. In particular, Washington imposed increased tariffs on several Indian goods in 2025 partly in response to India's purchases of Russian oil, and has signaled a review of leniencies for Venezuela. These steps create uncertainty around future Venezuelan oil supplies to the global market. In the meantime, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington over ending the conflict have not made noticeable progress—the recent consultations in Moscow involving American emissaries ended without breakthroughs. Fighting in Ukraine continues, and all previously imposed restrictions on the export of Russian energy resources remain in place. Western companies still avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, the geopolitical confrontation surrounding energy persists, adding long-term risks and uncertainties to the market.
Asia: India and China Focus on Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia—India and China—continue to prioritize their energy security, balancing the benefits of cheap imports with external pressures. Asian countries are actively seizing opportunities to purchase energy carriers on favorable terms while simultaneously developing domestic projects and cooperation. The current situation is as follows:
- India: Under pressure from the West, New Delhi temporarily reduced its purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, India remains one of Moscow's key clients. Indian refineries continue to process discounted Urals oil to meet domestic fuel needs and redirect excess petroleum products for export. President Vladimir Putin visited India on December 4, underlining the close ties between the countries. Discussions on new agreements for long-term oil supplies and potential gas projects are expected at the summit in New Delhi on December 5. Russia is also looking to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade despite U.S. sanction pressures (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to cooperation with Russia in the energy sector).
- China: Despite economic slowdown, Beijing maintains a key position in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying their import channels: additional long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas purchases (including from Qatar and the U.S.) are being signed, pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are expanding, and investments in overseas oil and gas production are increasing. Meanwhile, China is gradually increasing its hydrocarbon production, although it is still insufficient to fully cover domestic demand. The country is also continuing to make significant coal purchases to secure its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in the development of renewable energy, but in the coming years, they do not intend to abandon traditional sources—oil, gas, and coal—that continue to form the basis of their energy balance.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum, setting new records for investments and capacity additions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investments in renewable energy exceeded $2 trillion in 2025—more than double the total investments in the oil and gas sector during the same period. The main flow of capital is directed toward constructing solar and wind power plants, as well as related infrastructure—high-voltage grids and storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and significantly increasing renewable energy capacities by 2030. To achieve these goals, a comprehensive set of initiatives is proposed:
- Expediting Permitting Procedures: Shortening approval times and simplifying the issuance of permits for the construction of renewable energy facilities, modernization of grids, and implementation of other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding Government Support: Introducing additional incentives for “green” energy—special tariffs, tax incentives, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investments and reduce risks for businesses.
- Financing Transition in Developing Countries: Increasing volumes of international financial assistance for emerging market economies to accelerate the implementation of renewables where domestic resources are insufficient. Targeted funds are being created to make "green" projects more affordable in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already leading to changes in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewables together with nuclear generation) account for over 40% of electricity generation worldwide, and this share is steadily increasing. Experts note that while short-term fluctuations due to weather conditions or spikes in consumption may occur, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, bringing the new low-carbon era closer.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, But the Peak is Near
Despite global decarbonization efforts, the global coal market in 2025 remains one of the largest in history. Global coal consumption is holding at record levels—approximately 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, slightly exceeding last year's figures. Demand continues to grow in developing Asian economies (primarily in India and Southeast Asian countries), compensating for the reduction in coal use in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, global coal consumption slightly decreased in the first half of 2025 due to increased renewable energy generation and mild weather, but a modest increase (approximately 1%) is expected by the end of the year. Thus, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year with near-record levels of coal burning.
Coal production is also increasing—especially in China and India, which are ramping up domestic production to reduce import dependence. Prices for thermal coal remain stable overall, as high Asian demand sustains market balance. However, analysts believe that global coal demand has reached a "plateau" and will gradually decline in the coming years as renewable energy development accelerates and climate policies tighten.
