Global Oil and Gas Industry News as of January 18, 2026: Iran, Venezuela, Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
As of January 18, 2026, current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) present a mixed picture for investors and market participants. The Middle East is experiencing a relative de-escalation: after turmoil in Iran and threatening statements from the U.S., tensions are easing, temporarily alleviating concerns over oil supply disruptions. Concurrently, cautious optimism is emerging regarding a potential increase in global supply with Venezuela gradually re-entering the market: U.S.-backed efforts by the new Venezuelan administration to ramp up production are fostering hope, although the effects may not be felt immediately. In the global oil market, prices remain under pressure from oversupply and moderate demand, with Brent crude holding in the mid-$60s per barrel following last week's volatility. The European gas market is seeing a winter spike in demand; however, record LNG imports and substantial storage levels are keeping prices from reaching extreme values. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: various countries are setting new records for renewable energy generation (RES), although governments are not yet ready to abandon traditional resources to ensure the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, authorities are maintaining export restrictions on fuel and other stabilization measures to prevent shortages and price spikes in the domestic oil products market after last year's volatility. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Limited Demand Curb Prices
The global oil market at the start of 2026 is showing relative price stability at a reduced level. North Sea Brent is fluctuating around $64 per barrel, while American WTI hovers between $59 and $60. These levels are still approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual correction following the price peaks during the energy crisis of 2022-2023. The primary factors of pressure remain oversupply and only moderate demand growth. While OPEC+ countries continue to adhere to production limits, a wave of supply is building from non-OPEC sources—particularly an increase in production in North America, as well as the return of volumes from previously sanctioned countries such as Iran and Venezuela. Analysts note that without significant consumption growth (e.g., acceleration of economic growth and demand in Asia), oil is likely to remain in a relatively narrow price range in the medium term. Short-term price spikes due to geopolitical events are quickly neutralized: for instance, concerns over a potential military conflict in the Middle East spurred a rise in prices mid-week, but subsequent easing rhetoric from Washington and stable export flows quickly returned prices to previous levels. Overall, the market balance currently favors buyers—global oil inventories are gradually increasing, and competition for markets is intensifying. In the absence of unforeseen shocks or new decisive actions from OPEC, the current price environment is expected to remain close to the present, with moderately low oil prices around the mid-$60s per barrel.
Gas Market: Cold Winter and Record LNG Imports Temper Price Growth
In the gas market, attention is focused on a sharp increase in seasonal demand due to cold weather in the northern hemisphere. In Europe, prolonged winter chill has led to active withdrawals of gas from underground storage: reserves in EU countries have dropped to about 55-60% of capacity, compared to over 64% a year ago at this time. Nevertheless, the situation remains manageable thanks to the flexibility of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. In mid-January, European LNG terminals reached record regasification volumes—daily LNG deliveries to the EU gas transport system exceeded 480 million cubic meters, surpassing previous historical highs. This influx has compensated for decreased transit of pipeline gas and kept price growth in check. Although spot prices for gas in Europe surged approximately 30-40% compared to the beginning of the month, they remain far from the peaks during the energy deficit of 2022. Cold weather has also stimulated demand in Asia: key importers in Northeast Asia are ramping up LNG purchases, and Asian spot prices (JKM index) rose to around ~$10 per MMBtu, marking a six-week high. However, the global gas market is generally balanced: supply redirection between regions and sufficient global production levels are meeting the increased demand. In the U.S., the largest producer, natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are maintaining around $3 per million BTU, which supports the competitiveness of U.S. LNG in external markets. In the coming weeks, gas price dynamics will depend on weather conditions: should the cold weather persist, high storage loads will continue, but record LNG import rates give Europe a buffer to navigate winter without critical disruptions.
Iran and Sanctions: Easing Tensions and New Supply Factors
The geopolitical landscape affecting energy markets has undergone significant changes. By mid-January, the wave of mass protests in Iran that erupted late last year is gradually subsiding, and the risk of immediate military escalation from the U.S. has decreased. Washington's previously hardline rhetoric regarding potential strikes on Iranian facilities has shifted to more measured statements, especially after Tehran indicated a willingness to make certain concessions on internal issues. U.S. military presence in the region (including the arrival of a carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf) is now viewed more as a deterrent rather than a precursor to immediate conflict. Market concerns about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or other disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies have temporarily eased, reducing the geopolitical premium on oil prices.
At the same time, interesting shifts are unfolding on the sanctions front. Washington continues to maintain all existing restrictions against the Russian oil and gas sector, and there has been no significant easing of these measures. Russian energy resources continue to be redirected to alternative markets—primarily in Asia—with noticeable discounts, and Western sanctions remain an important factor in the global trading environment. However, regarding Venezuela, the U.S. is adopting a more flexible approach: following political changes in Caracas, American authorities are signaling a willingness to expedite the lifting of oil sanctions. In particular, licenses for international oil companies to operate in Venezuela are being expanded—within the next few months, Chevron and other operators will be able to increase exports of Venezuelan oil. These steps, supported by the new reform-oriented government of Venezuela, should eventually return significant volumes of hydrocarbons to the global market. Experts, however, caution that the recovery of Venezuelan oil production will be gradual: years of inadequate investment and sanctions have severely constrained the country's production capabilities. Nevertheless, the prospect of increased supply from Venezuela enhances consumer confidence and pressures speculative sentiment, thus limiting price increases. Thus, geopolitical risks at the beginning of 2026 have somewhat adjusted: Middle Eastern tensions have eased, and Western sanction policies show targeted flexibility, creating a more favorable backdrop for the global energy market than previously anticipated.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing pressure from Western nations urging a reduction in cooperation with sanctioned suppliers, Delhi has somewhat decreased its purchases of Russian oil and gas in recent months. However, a sharp withdrawal from these energy sources is deemed impossible due to their critical role in national energy security. The country continues receiving raw materials from Russian companies on favorable terms: traders report that the discount on Russian Urals crude for Indian buyers reaches $4-5 below Brent prices, making these supplies very attractive. As a result, India maintains its status as one of the largest importers of Russian oil, while also increasing purchases of petroleum products (such as diesel) to meet growing domestic demand. Simultaneously, the Indian government is stepping up efforts to reduce dependence on imports in the future. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced a program to develop deep-water oil and gas extraction in offshore areas: the state-owned company ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Initial results are assessed as encouraging, raising hopes for the discovery of new major fields. This strategy aims to bring India closer to the goal of energy self-sufficiency in the long term.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues to increase energy consumption by balancing import growth with the expansion of domestic production. Beijing has not supported Western sanctions against Moscow and has leveraged the situation to actively increase purchases of Russian energy resources on favorable terms. Analysts estimate that in 2025, China's oil and gas imports rose by 2-5% compared to the previous year, surpassing 210 million tons of oil and 250 billion cubic meters of gas, respectively. Growth rates have moderated compared to the surge in 2024 but remain positive. Concurrently, China is setting records in domestic production: last year, national companies extracted over 200 million tons of oil and 220 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 1-6% higher than levels a year ago. The state is investing significantly in developing hard-to-access fields, adopting new extraction technologies, and enhancing the recovery of mature oil reserves. However, despite all efforts, China remains import-dependent: about 70% of its consumed oil and around 40% of gas must be sourced from abroad. In the coming years, these ratios are unlikely to change drastically due to the scale of the economy and energy intensity of the industry. Thus, India and China—two key consumers in Asia—continue to play a decisive role in global commodity markets, skillfully navigating between the necessity of importing significant amounts of fuel and the desire to develop their resource bases.
Energy Transition: RES Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is accelerating, setting new benchmarks in energy markets. By the end of 2025, several countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. In Europe, the total generation from solar and wind power for the year exceeded that from coal and gas plants for the first time, solidifying the trend of shifting the balance towards "green" energy. In Germany, Spain, the U.K., and several other nations, the share of RES in electricity consumption surpassed 50% on certain days, thanks to the deployment of new capacities. In the U.S., renewable energy has also reached historic highs: at the beginning of 2025, more than 30% of all generated electricity came from RES, and the combined output from wind and solar for the year exceeded that from coal-fired power plants. China remains the global leader in the scale of "green" construction—in 2025, the country installed tens of GW of new solar panels and wind turbines, consistently renewing its clean energy production records. Major oil and energy companies, considering these trends, are actively diversifying: significant investments are directed toward RES projects, hydrogen technology development, and energy storage systems.
However, despite impressive progress in clean energy, governments and businesses must still ensure a balance with traditional generation. The year 2025 vividly illustrated that during peak demand or adverse weather conditions (e.g., winter with low wind and solar output), fossil fuel reserve capacities are critically important for reliable power supply. European countries, which have reduced their share of coal in recent years, still temporarily brought some coal plants back online during cold spells, while gas plants took on increased loads during low wind periods. In Asia, maintaining a base load of coal generation helps prevent power supply interruptions during spikes in consumption. Thus, the world is moving towards cleaner energy at unprecedented speeds, but the era of complete carbon neutrality has not yet arrived. The transition period is characterized by the coexistence of two systems: the rapidly expanding renewable sector and traditional thermal generation, which protects against risks and smooths seasonal and weather fluctuations. The strategy of many nations is to simultaneously develop RES and modernize traditional infrastructure—this approach aims to ensure the resilience of energy systems on the path to a carbon-neutral future.
Coal: High Demand Sustains Market Stability
The global coal market remains relatively stable despite global decarbonization trends. Demand for coal remains high, especially in Asian countries. In China and India—the largest coal consumers—this fuel continues to play a key role in electricity generation and the metallurgical industry. According to industry reports, global coal consumption in 2025 remained near historic highs, only slightly decreasing (by about 1-2%) compared to the record 2024 levels. Increased coal usage in developing economies compensates for its declining share in energy-deficient Europe and North America. Many Asian countries continue to put modern coal power plants with higher efficiency into operation, aiming to meet the growing energy demands of their populations and industries. On the pricing front, the situation is calmer than during the height of the energy crisis: prices for thermal coal in global markets at the beginning of 2026 are around $100-110 per ton, significantly lower than the peaks two years ago. Price easing is attributed to an increase in supply—major exporters (Australia, Indonesia, South Africa, Russia) have increased production, while European demand is decreasing with the introduction of RES. In Europe, a systematic phasing out of coal continues: a symbolic event was the closure of the last deep coal mine in the Czech Republic in January, marking the end of a 250-year history of coal mining in the country. Nonetheless, on a global scale, coal remains an important element of the energy balance. The International Energy Agency predicts a plateau in global coal demand in the coming several years, followed by a gradual decline. In the long run, tightening environmental policies and competition from cheap RES will limit the development of the coal industry, but in the short term, the coal market will continue to lean on stable Asian demand.
Oil Products and Refineries: Growing Refining Capacity Stabilizes Fuel Markets
The global oil products market entered 2026 without upheaval, demonstrating balance due to the expansion of refining capacities and the adaptation of logistics chains. After acute diesel and other oil products shortages during the energy crisis, the situation has normalized: supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the global market are sufficient to meet demand in most regions. The world's leading refineries are operating at high utilization rates, and refining margins have stabilized at average levels.
- Launch of New Refineries: In 2025, major refineries were launched that significantly increased total capacities. Particularly, in Africa, the giant Dangote Refinery (Nigeria) came online, capable of processing up to 650,000 barrels of oil per day, increasing local fuel supply and reducing import dependence in several countries in the region. New projects also commenced in the Middle East and Asia: modern refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, China, and India added hundreds of thousands of barrels per day to global refining. These new capacities helped eliminate bottlenecks in supply and create excess fuel reserves in the global market.
- Reorganization of Trade Flows: Sanction restrictions and changes in demand structure have led to a redistribution of oil product flows between regions. The European Union, having ceased direct imports of Russian oil products, has reoriented to purchasing fuel from the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. Meanwhile, Russia has increased exports of gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil to friendly countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, partly replacing former European markets. This geographic transformation in trade has been relatively smooth: there have been no fuel shortages in major consumption centers, and gasoline and diesel prices in Europe and North America at the end of 2025 even decreased compared to peak values a year ago.
- Price Stabilization for Consumers: Thanks to increased refining and the establishment of new supply chains, prices for oil products at gas stations remain within acceptable limits. In the U.S. and Europe, the average cost of gasoline and diesel fuel remains below levels seen at the beginning of 2023, alleviating inflationary pressures on the economy. Developing countries also benefit from increased fuel availability: improved supply has allowed for the avoidance of sharp price spikes even amid raw oil volatility. Governments in many countries continue to closely monitor domestic fuel markets; if necessary, mechanisms for subsidization or temporary export restrictions are employed to protect consumers from price shocks. As a result, a combination of factors—from the launch of new refineries to flexible policies—has led the global oil products market into 2026 in a state of relative equilibrium. For large fuel companies, this means a more predictable market environment, while for end consumers, it translates into stable prices and reliable supplies of gasoline, diesel, and other fuel types.
