Key Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry News for Friday, January 2, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Refineries and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Stakeholders in the Fuel and Energy Sector.
Major Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 closed for the oil and gas industry amidst conflicting factors: oil prices fell by nearly 20% due to fears of oversupply, while geopolitical tensions sustained demand for "safe" assets. Analysts believe that in 2026, an oversupply may emerge in oil markets, putting downward pressure on prices; however, local constraints (the EU ban on oil products from Russia, attacks on refineries) limit exports and keep prices elevated, especially for diesel fuel.
Trends in gas markets are evolving rapidly: Europe is winding down transit through Ukraine and plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2028, ramping up LNG imports. Asia is also restructuring supply routes in response to trade disputes. Meanwhile, global electricity demand is rising—driven by the rapid development of data centers, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles—which is stimulating investments in renewable energy and energy storage.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Environment: Experts forecast that Brent oil will trade around $60–65 per barrel in 2026. Total supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, leading to a surplus of inventories.
- OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ countries have suspended production hikes and maintained previously announced cuts. The overall level of reductions remains at approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to about ~3% of global demand.
- Demand: The global economy is demonstrating steady growth, leading demand for oil to increase by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Significant consumption growth is observed in Asia and the Middle East, while U.S. shale oil production is beginning to decline slightly.
- Geopolitics: The prospects of a peaceful resolution in Ukraine could dramatically shift the oil market balance. Lifting sanctions and the return of Russian volumes to the market would increase supply, while their maintenance would support prices.
Gas Market: Supply and Demand
- Pipelines: Russian gas exports via pipelines to Europe fell by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the closure of the Ukrainian route. The EU plans to completely phase out imports of Russian gas by 2028, leaving only a few transit routes.
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are aggressively increasing LNG purchases from the U.S., Qatar, and other suppliers. Meanwhile, Asia has drastically cut LNG imports from the U.S. after tariffs were introduced on American energy. Demand for LNG in China and India continues to grow as these countries seek to diversify fuel sources.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in gas infrastructure and storage to enhance its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to rise until 2035–2045 (up to 620–650 billion cubic meters per year), stimulating further expansion of gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Electricity consumption is rising at record rates in many countries. In the U.S., it could exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026 due to the boom in data centers, development of AI, electrification of transport, and the residential sector.
- Share of Renewables: The share of renewable sources in electricity generation is steadily increasing. By 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation could surpass 4.6 TW (80% of which will be solar plants), and noticeable increases in wind and solar shares are expected in the coming years due to incentive policies and decreasing technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The adoption of battery systems is gaining momentum. Chinese manufacturers are leading in this field—with estimates suggesting that their lithium-ion battery exports for storage increased by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage are also escalating and could exceed $60 billion by the end of the year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to IEA forecasts, coal consumption is expected to reach a record 8.85 billion tons in 2025 (+0.5% from 2024) and will gradually begin to decline by the end of the decade as renewable, nuclear, and gas generation capacities grow.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to heavy rains and increased hydropower, while it rose in the U.S. amid rising gas prices. China, the largest coal consumer (30% more than the rest of the world combined), showed stabilization in 2025, but a decline in coal's share in the energy balance is expected by the 2030s.
- Environmental Factors: Countries continue to balance between climate goals and energy security. Even under pressure for decarbonization, the coal sector remains significant in several regions, creating uncertainty in policy and investment.
Refining and Oil Products
- Diesel Shortages: In 2025, European diesel margins increased by approximately 30% while oil prices fell. This is due to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU's ban on fuel imports from Russian oil. Limited diesel supply maintains high spreads on petroleum products.
- New Capacities: Major projects for building refineries in developed countries are not planned, creating a structural deficit in the oil products market. Investors expect that high margins on products will remain until refining capacities increase.
- Venezuela: PDVSA is stockpiling heavy residues in storage as sanctions limit the export of fuel oil and diesel. This exacerbates the shortage of marine fuel and affects regions dependent on Venezuelan exports.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major companies are signing significant agreements. Italian Saipem has secured a $425 million contract for the development of the Sakarya gas field, Turkey's largest. British Harbour Energy has become the operator of the Zama field in Mexico (approximately 750 million barrels of oil) and concluded deals worth $3.2 billion in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening its position.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and gained control over the LLOG asset in the Gulf of Mexico. This made the company the operator of the two largest independent projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulators continue to impact the energy sector. In Serbia, the NIS oil refinery (owned by Gazprom Neft) was granted a temporary OFAC license until January 2026, allowing it to resume operations after a stoppage due to U.S. sanctions.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Stock Market Trends: Leading stock indexes for energy companies reflect the situation in commodity markets. By the end of 2025, Middle Eastern indices declined following a drop in oil prices (e.g., the Saudi index fell by 1%), while shares of major oil and gas companies showed slight decreases.
- Regulation and Monetary Policy: Central banks influence the investment climate. For example, in Egypt, a cut in the key rate by 100 bps supported a rise in the stock market (+0.9%), stimulating domestic demand. Similar measures are being discussed in other developing countries.
- Commodity Currencies: Currencies of energy-exporting countries remain relatively stable due to fiscal and budgetary mechanisms. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar are supported by revenues from oil and gas sales, which limits their volatility amid price declines.
