Current News from the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy Sector in Russia as of December 15, 2025: Sanctions, Exports, Oil and Gas Market, Domestic Fuel Prices, Renewable Energy Sources (RES), and Global Resource Trends. Detailed Analytical Review for Investors and Market Participants
The current developments in the fuel and energy complex as of December 15, 2025, draw the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory nature. The United States has imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Russian oil sector, resulting in a restructuring of global energy resource trade and highlighting the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, oil prices in the global market remain relatively stable, hovering near several-month lows: an oversupply and cautious demand are keeping prices at moderate levels. The North Sea Brent is trading at about $60–62 per barrel, with U.S. WTI around $57–59, representing a decrease of approximately 15% compared to last year, reflecting a continued correction following the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022–2023. The European gas market also demonstrates stable equilibrium: underground gas storage facilities in the EU are over 70% full, providing a solid buffer at the beginning of winter, while market gas prices remain at relatively low levels (around $9 per million BTU, significantly lower than last year’s figures).
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries are recording record generation of electricity from renewable sources, although to ensure the reliability of energy systems, states still rely on traditional resources. As a result, amid the green transformation and escalating sanction confrontation, governments and companies are compelled to balance decarbonization strategies with energy security. In Russia, following a recent spike in fuel prices, authorities are implementing a set of measures to stabilize the domestic oil product market—from export restrictions to record subsidies for oil producers. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors as of today.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain relatively low under the influence of fundamental factors. After a notable increase in production in 2024–2025 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+), along with increased supplies from the U.S. and other independent producers, market expectations of oversupply have risen. At the same time, global oil demand is growing only moderately: the slowdown of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year and improvements in energy efficiency are suppressing consumption, although by the end of 2025 the global macroeconomic situation has begun to improve. Collectively, these factors do not allow prices to rise: Brent remains near $60 per barrel, while WTI is below $60. For comparison, oil was trading significantly higher a year ago, thus current quotes reflect a gradual return to normalcy after a turbulent period of volatility. OPEC+ has suspended production increases for the first time in a long time due to the threat of market oversaturation, deciding to maintain output quotas unchanged at least in the first quarter of 2026. According to recent forecasts, next year, global oil supply may exceed demand by about 3–4 million barrels per day; however, recent sanctions have somewhat diminished the anticipated oversupply. The International Energy Agency noted that sanctions against specific supplier countries (primarily Russia and Venezuela) are reducing the available volumes in the market, while economic recovery adds confidence in demand. In its December report, OPEC confirms an increase in oil consumption in 2026 and expects a more balanced market: the cartel estimates that global demand and supply next year will be closely aligned. Thus, the oil market enters 2026 with cautious optimism: despite the pressure from excessive inventories, OPEC+ measures and economic recovery may prevent further price declines.
Gas Market: Comfortable Supplies in Europe and Moderate Fuel Prices
On the gas market, Europe is in the spotlight, confidently navigating the start of the winter season thanks to accumulated reserves. European countries have proactively filled their underground storage facilities to high levels: by mid-December, gas stocks exceed 75% of the capacity of UGS, which is significantly higher than the average figures of previous years. These comfortable reserves provide a reliable buffer for cold weather spikes and help keep prices down. Currently, spot prices at the TTF hub fluctuate around €25–28 per MWh (about $8–9 per MMBtu), remaining at moderate levels and about a third lower than last year. Even periods of cold weather do not lead to sharp price spikes, as the market is balanced thanks to diversified LNG supplies and reduced consumption. This situation is beneficial for the European industry and energy sectors on the brink of winter: it reduces the burden on household and corporate budgets compared to the crisis of 2022.
Potential risks of increased competition for energy resources from Asia loom ahead, should economic growth in APR countries accelerate and they start actively purchasing additional LNG batches. However, for now, the European gas balance appears stable. Moreover, the European Union is taking strategic steps towards complete independence from Russian energy resources. At the political level, an agreement has been reached to gradually halt imports of Russian gas: a complete ban on LNG supplies from Russia is planned by the end of 2026, and pipeline gas is to be stopped by the fall of 2027. This continues the EU's course toward strengthening energy security initiated after the events of 2022. Already, imports of Russian gas have decreased to about 13% of total supplies in the EU, and the share of Russian oil in European imports has fallen below 3%. Thus, Europe is securing gas from alternative sources and is steadily reducing its dependence on Russia, which in the long term will decrease the vulnerability of its market and enhance price stability.
International Politics: New U.S. Sanctions Transform the Global Oil Market
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a substantial influence on the fuel and energy market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the United States sharply intensified sanction pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. In October, the U.S. administration imposed direct sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies—Rosneft and Lukoil—which account for about two-thirds of Russian oil exports. These measures, which came into effect at the end of November, target the core of Russia's oil industry and effectively demonstrate that even the leading companies in the country are no longer “too big” to be sanctioned. As a result, Moscow's export capability has encountered new obstacles: industry analysts estimate that oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget fell by about a third in November compared to the previous year, reaching their lowest level since the onset of the sanctions war in 2022. The blow to major exporters has led to interruptions in the sale of Russian oil on the global market: traders report increases in volumes of oil from Russia seeking buyers, being stored in tankers at sea, as traditional trade chains have been disrupted.
Many countries that had previously ramped up purchases of Russian energy resources began to reevaluate their policies under the influence of sanctions and market conditions. Turkey, India, Brazil, and several other major importers have reduced their purchases of Russian oil at the end of the year, aiming to avoid secondary sanctions and issues with financial settlements. Nevertheless, China remains a key buyer: Beijing, not joining the Western restrictions, continues to acquire large volumes of Russian oil and gas, albeit insisting on significant discounts. Russian exporters are forced to provide discounts to the global price to retain the Asian market—according to trading platforms, Urals is trading with a gap of about $15–20 relative to Brent. Additional pressure on Moscow comes from the European Union, which previously had virtually ceased imports of Russian oil and petroleum products and is now legislating a complete rejection of Russian gas in the coming years. Consequently, the global oil market is experiencing structural changes: Russian companies are hastily selling off overseas assets (refineries, distribution networks in Europe and other regions), making room for competitors, and traditional commodity trade flows are being redirected. Although dialogue between Moscow and Washington regarding energy is currently effectively frozen, the continuation of sanction escalation remains a significant factor of uncertainty for the market. Investors are monitoring the situation: further tightening of restrictions or retaliatory moves from Russia could impact global prices, while any hints at easing tensions would be perceived as a positive signal. For now, the status quo is that the sanction confrontation persists, and market participants are adapting to a new reality of a divided oil and gas space.
Asia: India and China Balancing Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing the pressure of Western sanctions, New Delhi clearly prioritizes energy security and does not intend to drastically cut purchases of Russian energy resources. Russian oil and gas remain crucial components of the country's import structure, and an abrupt refusal of them is deemed unacceptable due to the economy's needs. Instead, India has secured favorable terms for itself: Russian suppliers are offering increased discounts on Urals oil (estimated at around $5 per barrel to Brent), allowing Indian refineries to procure feedstock at a reduced rate. Thus, India continues to actively import Russian oil on preferential terms and is even increasing imports of petroleum products from Russia, satisfying the growing domestic fuel demand. Simultaneously, the government is intensifying its long-term strategy to decrease reliance on imports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a large-scale program for exploring deep-water oil and gas fields during his August Independence Day speech. As part of this initiative, the state corporation ONGC has begun ultra-deep drilling (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and the initial results have been rated as promising. This "deep-water mission" is aimed at stimulating the discovery of new hydrocarbon reserves and bringing India closer to the goal of increasing energy resource self-sufficiency in the future.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also increasing its energy resource purchases while investing in the growth of its domestic production. Chinese companies remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas: Beijing, not supporting sanctions against Moscow, has seized the opportunity to import Russian raw materials at favorable prices. According to customs data from the PRC, in 2024, the country imported approximately 212.8 million tons of oil and 246.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas—these volumes grew by 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively, year-on-year. In 2025, imports continue at high levels, although growth rates have somewhat slowed due to the high base effect and the overall increase in oil prices. At the same time, China is stimulating its domestic oil and gas production: from January to September 2025, national companies extracted about 180 million tons of oil and 210 billion cubic meters of gas, which exceeds the levels of the same period last year by several percent. The growth of domestic production partially compensates for the increased demand but does not eliminate China's need for external supplies. The PRC authorities continue to invest in the development of fields and technologies to enhance oil recovery, seeking to slow down the growth of imports. Nevertheless, considering the scale of the economy, China's dependence on imported energy resources remains significant: experts estimate that in the coming years the country will import at least 70% of its consumed oil and about 40% of gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, combining strategies for securing imports with the development of their resource base.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly gaining altitude. In 2025, many countries have recorded new records for electricity generation from renewable sources, primarily from solar and wind. The European Union reported that in 2024 the total generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed electricity generation at coal and gas power plants for the first time. This trend has continued into 2025: the commissioning of new capacities has further increased the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy balance is gradually declining after a temporary growth during the 2022–2023 crisis. In the United States, renewable energy also reached historic highs—by early 2025, over 30% of total generation came from RES, and the total output from wind and solar surpassed electricity generation at coal plants for the first time. China, being the world leader in installed RES capacity, annually adds dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines, continuously breaking its own records in "green" generation. Overall, globally, companies and investors are directing unprecedented funds into developing clean energy: according to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds invested in RES projects, as well as in modernizing grid infrastructure and energy storage systems. An additional stimulus comes from the international climate agenda—at the recent UN climate summit (COP30), global leaders reaffirmed their commitment to emission reduction goals, implying an accelerated expansion of low-carbon energy in the coming years.
At the same time, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability and cover peak loads. The rapid growth in the share of solar and wind stations creates new challenges for balancing the grid at those hours when renewable generation is temporarily unavailable—at night, during calm weather, or under extreme loads. To guarantee uninterrupted power supply, operators sometimes have to revert to gas and even coal power plants. In some regions of Europe last winter, coal plant output was briefly increased during periods of calm and cold, despite the environmental costs of such a move. Recognizing these risks, governments in many countries are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage plants) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly redistributing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources could become the leading source of electricity generation globally, finally surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, there remains a need to maintain classical power plants as a reserve and insurance against outages. Thus, the global energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources to keep energy systems resilient and flexible.
Coal: Stable Market Amid Continued High Demand
Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy sources, the global coal market maintains significant volumes and remains a critical part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal products remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support the intensive use of this fuel. China—the world's largest consumer and producer of coal—continues to burn coal at nearly record rates in 2025. Annual coal production at Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons, covering a significant portion of the country’s internal needs. However, this barely suffices to meet peak demand during certain periods: for example, in hot summer months when air conditioning use peaks, China's energy system faces increased pressure, and coal generation remains indispensable to prevent outages. India, possessing substantial coal reserves, is also increasing its consumption: over 70% of electricity in the country is still generated from coal-fired plants, and absolute coal usage is rising alongside the economy. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are implementing projects to build new coal-fired power plants to cater to the growing energy needs of the population and industry.
Global coal production and trade have adapted to the continued high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—have increased production and export shipments of thermal coal in recent years, which has allowed them to maintain prices at moderate levels. After price spikes in 2022, thermal coal prices have returned to more familiar values and have fluctuated within a narrow range in recent months. The balance of supply and demand now appears stable: consumers reliably receive the necessary fuel, while producers benefit from a stable market with profitable prices. Although several countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal usage in the future for climate goals, in the short term, coal continues to be an irreplaceable resource for powering billions of people. Most experts believe that within the next 5–10 years, coal generation—especially in Asia—will continue to play a significant role, even amid global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to be one of the fundamental pillars of global energy.
Russian Oil Product Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment of Russia, urgent measures are being taken in the second half of 2025 to normalize the pricing situation and prevent fuel shortages. Back in August, wholesale exchange prices for automotive gasoline in the Russian Federation reached new historical highs, exceeding last year’s records. This occurred against a backdrop of several factors: high summer demand (active tourism, harvest campaigns in the agriculture sector), limited fuel supplies, and unscheduled shutdowns at several oil refineries. Accidents and drone attacks late in the summer damaged several major refineries, reducing gasoline production and causing local supply interruptions in several regions. Faced with an impending fuel crisis, the government was forced to ramp up intervention in market regulation. On August 14, an emergency meeting of the monitoring headquarters for the situation in the fuel and energy complex was held under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, which announced a set of measures to reduce price speculation and stabilize supplies in the domestic market. The main steps include:
- Export Restrictions: The temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel from Russia, introduced in late summer, has been extended indefinitely. The government has directly mandated oil companies to redirect supplies to the domestic market. Authorities are also discussing the possibility of imposing quotas or a complete embargo on diesel fuel exports to ensure priority supply for domestic consumers.
- Distribution Control and Refinery Operations: Regulators have intensified oversight of fuel distribution within the country. Producers are instructed to prioritize domestic market needs and avoid exchange resales, which previously inflated prices. One of the reasons for the shortages has been unscheduled shutdowns of major oil refineries; thus, special attention is given to the accelerated restoration of their operations and the prevention of such disruptions. The Ministry of Energy, together with the Federal Antimonopoly Service and the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, is developing long-term measures—such as transitioning to direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing exchange intermediaries—to make the fuel distribution system more transparent and resilient.
- Subsidies and Dampener Mechanism: The government has increased financial support for refiners to curb prices at gas stations. Budget payments for the reverse excise tax on fuel (the so-called “dampener”) continue uninterrupted, compensating companies for the difference between export and domestic revenues. In October, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree prohibiting the suspension of compensatory payments to oil producers until May 2026, effectively lifting previous restrictions on the amount of subsidies. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first nine months of 2025, oil companies received about 715.5 billion rubles within the fuel dampener framework—an unprecedented amount of state support aimed at stabilizing prices. These measures incentivize companies to retain a larger volume of oil products in the domestic market, despite higher prices abroad.
The combined measures aim to gradually stabilize fuel prices in Russia and prevent shortages at gas stations. Extending export restrictions should increase the supply of gasoline domestically by hundreds of thousands of tons monthly—these volumes had previously been exported. Simultaneously, extensive subsidies maintain the economic incentive for oil companies to saturate the domestic market. The government has declared its readiness to continue taking preventative actions: if necessary, restrictions on oil product exports will be extended and additional resources from state reserves will be promptly directed to regions. By now, the intensity of the fuel crisis has somewhat subsided: despite record wholesale prices, retail prices for gasoline and diesel at gas stations have risen much more moderately (by single percentage points since the beginning of the year, which is close to overall inflation). Gas stations are supplied with fuel, and the implemented steps are expected to gradually cool market prices. The situation continues to be monitored at the highest level—relevant agencies and the Russian government are ready to introduce new mechanisms if necessary to guarantee stable fuel supplies in the domestic market and keep prices for end consumers within acceptable limits.
