Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News for Saturday, January 24, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies.
The current events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) on January 24, 2026, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tensions remain high: the US and the EU are intensifying sanctions in the energy sector, leading to a further redistribution of global oil and gas flows. At the same time, the global energy markets present a mixed picture. Oil prices, after falling in 2025, have stabilized at a moderate level – North Sea Brent is holding around $63–65 per barrel, while US WTI is trading in the range of $59–61. This is significantly lower than levels a year ago (about $15–20 cheaper than in January 2025), reflecting a fragile balance between supply surplus and muted demand. Meanwhile, the European gas market is facing harsh winter cold; rapid fuel withdrawals from underground storage have depleted reserves below 50% capacity, causing prices to spike roughly 30% since the start of the month. However, the situation is far from the energy crisis of 2022 – accumulated reserves and the influx of LNG allow for the cover of increased demand, keeping prices in check. The global energy transition, in the meantime, is gaining momentum: many regions are recording new records for electricity generation from renewable sources, although for the reliability of energy systems, countries still rely on traditional resources. In Russia, following last year’s surge in fuel prices, authorities have extended emergency measures – including export restrictions and subsidies – into early 2026 to stabilize the domestic petroleum market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors for this date.
Oil Market: OPEC+ Restrains Production Amid Surplus Risks
Global oil prices maintain relative stability at relatively low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. Brent is currently trading at around $63–65 per barrel, while WTI is within the range of $59–61. Current quotes are 15–20% lower than a year ago, reflecting market oversupply after peaks in 2022–2023 and moderate demand. The dynamics of oil prices are simultaneously influenced by several key factors:
- OPEC+ Policy: Fearing a possible surplus, the alliance of leading exporters maintains a cautious strategy. In early January 2026, OPEC+ members confirmed that existing production restrictions would remain in place at least until the end of Q1. Major countries (including Saudi Arabia and Russia) extended voluntary cuts, aiming to prevent market oversupply amidst seasonally low demand. This step indicates a desire to maintain price stability and marks a shift from the production increases observed a year earlier.
- Weak Demand Growth: Global oil consumption growth remains modest. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand will increase by only ~0.9 million barrels per day in 2026 (compared to ~2.5 million barrels per day in 2023). OPEC forecasts growth of about +1.1 million barrels per day. Such moderate expectations are tied to slowing global economic growth and the effect of high prices from previous years, which stimulated energy conservation. Structural factors – such as slower industrial growth in China and the saturation of post-pandemic demand – also play a role.
- Inventory Build and Non-OPEC Supplies: In 2025, global oil inventories significantly increased – analysts report that commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products grew on average by 1–1.5 million barrels per day. This has resulted from active production increases outside OPEC, primarily in the US and Brazil. The American oil industry reached record production levels (about 13 million barrels per day), and Brazil boosted supplies by bringing new offshore fields online. Excess supply has led to the formation of a "safety cushion" in the form of high inventories, putting downward pressure on prices, despite occasional disruptions (such as temporary export reductions from Kazakhstan or local conflicts in the Middle East).
The cumulative impact of these factors keeps the oil market close to oversupply. Brent and WTI prices fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking momentum for either new growth or sharp decline. Several investment banks forecast that, if current trends persist, the average Brent price in 2026 could fall to near $50. Nevertheless, market participants continue to closely monitor geopolitical events – sanctions, the situation in specific oil-producing countries – which could potentially alter the balance of supply and demand.
Gas Market: Europe Faces Cold Weather, Prices Rise
At the center of the gas market is Europe, which is experiencing a severe winter trial at the start of the year. By the beginning of the heating season, European countries had high stocks: underground gas storage (UGS) was filled almost to 100% by December 2025. However, prolonged frosts in January 2026 led to accelerated depletion of these reserves – by the end of the month, the overall filling level of UGS in the EU dropped below 50%. Such rapid gas extraction had not been seen for several years, and the market responded with rising prices. Futures at the TTF hub rose to ~€40/MWh (around $500 per thousand cubic meters), while just in December, they were trading around €30/MWh.
Despite the noticeable jump, current gas prices remain significantly lower than the peaks of the 2022 crisis, when prices exceeded €300/MWh. The European market is relatively resilient to demand shocks, thanks to measures taken and external supplies. In the midst of the cold, a large volume of liquefied natural gas continues to flow in: LNG tankers are being redirected to Europe, compensating for the draw from storage. Simultaneously, demand for gas has increased in other regions – in North America and Asia – where abnormally cold weather is also observed. This has led to a global rally in gas prices: in the US, prices at Henry Hub reached their highest level since 2022, while the Asian spot index JKM rose to levels seen at the end of last year. Nevertheless, thanks to established logistics and diversified supply sources, Europe is currently avoiding a gas shortage: even with lower stocks, supplies continue from various countries (Norway, North Africa, Qatar, the US, etc.), mitigating the impact of reduced pipeline imports from Russia.
Experts note that after an extremely cold January, European storage facilities may finish the winter at significantly lower levels than a year ago. This will create a new challenge for refilling them in anticipation of the next heating season, potentially supporting prices. At the same time, the launch of several new LNG projects worldwide in 2026–2027 should increase supply and ease pressure on the market in the medium term. In the coming weeks, the gas market situation will depend on the weather: if February turns out to be milder, price growth will likely slow, and the remaining stocks will suffice without issues. Thus, even amid the current winter stress, the European gas sector is demonstrating adaptability, navigating seasonal demand peaks without panic, albeit at slightly elevated prices.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure and Export Reorientation
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a substantial impact on energy markets. At the start of 2026, the West is not easing its sanction pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector; rather, new restrictive measures are being implemented. The European Union agreed in December 2025 on a plan to completely and permanently refuse to import Russian energy resources: in particular, pipeline gas purchases from the RF are to be reduced to zero by the end of 2026, and dependence on Russian LNG is also scheduled to be phased out. Additionally, the EU imposed a ban on the import of petroleum products made from Russian oil at foreign refineries – this measure aims to close loopholes through which Russian oil was indirectly entering the European market in the form of gasoline or diesel processed in third countries.
The United States, for its part, is tightening its rhetoric and preparing for new actions. The US administration is considering additional sanctions against certain countries and companies that are helping Moscow circumvent existing restrictions. Washington is openly warning major purchasing countries (such as China and India) against increasing imports of Russian oil. Initiatives are being promoted in Congress to impose high tariffs on goods from countries that engage in significant energy trade with Russia. While these proposals are still under discussion, the mere fact of increasing pressure heightens uncertainty in global oil and gas trade.
In response, Russia continues to reorient its export flows to friendly markets. Oil and LNG supplies to Asia remain at high levels: China, India, Turkey, and several other countries continue to be the largest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons, benefiting from price discounts. Alternative currencies (yuan, rupee) and payment schemes that reduce reliance on the dollar and euro are increasingly used for transactions. Simultaneously, the Russian government announced plans to develop its own tanker fleet and insurance mechanisms to minimize the impact of Western sanctions on oil export logistics. An important event has also been the partial normalization of relations between Russia, Venezuela, and Iran: these oil-producing countries are coordinating their positions in the market, seeking to jointly counter US sanction pressure.
Thus, the international arena remains characterized by confrontation, impacting energy. Sanctions and countermeasures are shaping a new configuration of oil and gas flows: the share of supplies to the West is decreasing, while the Asia-Pacific region is gaining increasing significance. Investors are assessing the risks: on one hand, further escalation of sanctions may lead to disruptions and price fluctuations; on the other, any hints at dialogue or compromise (for instance, extensions of export deals through intermediaries or humanitarian exceptions) could improve market sentiment. For now, the baseline scenario of continued hardline Western policies and exporters’ adaptation to new realities is already factored into prices and forecasts.
Asia: India and China Between Import and Domestic Production
- India: New Delhi strives to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on hydrocarbon imports while navigating external pressures. Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, India significantly ramped up purchases of affordable Russian oil, ensuring its domestic market is supplied with cheap raw materials. However, in 2025, facing the threat of Western sanctions and tariffs, the Indian government slightly reduced Russia’s share in oil imports, increasing supplies from the Middle East and other regions. Concurrently, India is betting on the development of its own resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of the National deepwater oil and gas exploration program. Under this initiative, the state company ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells offshore, aiming to discover new reserves. At the same time, the country is rapidly developing renewable energy (solar and wind power plants) and LNG import infrastructure to diversify its energy balance. Nevertheless, oil and gas remain the foundation of India’s fuel and energy balance, necessary for the functioning of industry and transport. India is forced to delicately balance between the benefits of importing cheap fuel and the risk of sanctions from the West.
- China: The largest economy in Asia continues its course towards increased energy self-sufficiency, combining the ramping up of traditional resource production with record investments in clean energy. In 2025, China raised domestic oil and coal production to historical highs, aiming to meet rapidly growing demand and reduce import dependence. At the same time, the proportion of coal in power generation in the PRC has dropped to a multi-year low (~55%) as massive new capacities of solar, wind, and hydroelectric plants are being introduced. Analysts estimate that in the first half of 2025, China commissioned more renewable generating capacities than the rest of the world combined. This has even allowed for a reduction in absolute fossil fuel consumption within the country. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, China’s appetite for energy resources remains colossal: in 2025, imports of oil and gas remained one of the key sources for meeting demand, particularly in transport, industry, and chemistry. Beijing continues to actively sign long-term contracts for LNG supplies and is also enhancing nuclear energy, considering it a vital component of its energy balance. The new 15th Five-Year Development Plan (2026-2030) is expected to set even more ambitious goals for increasing the share of carbon-free energy sources. However, the authorities clearly intend to maintain sufficient reserve capacities at traditional thermal power plants – Chinese leadership will not allow energy shortages, given the experience of power outages in the past decade. As a result, China is moving along two parallel paths: on the one hand, it is rapidly implementing clean technologies of the future, and on the other, it maintains a solid foundation of oil, gas, and coal, ensuring the resilience of its energy system today.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and Balance with Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate, confirming its irreversibility. In 2025, new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) were achieved worldwide. According to preliminary estimates from industry analysts, the total generation from solar and wind surpassed electricity production from all coal-fired plants combined for the first time. This historic milestone was made possible by an explosive increase in RES capacities: in 2025, global solar generation grew by about 30% compared to the previous year, while wind energy increased by almost 10%. The new "green" kilowatt-hours were able to cover a large portion of the increase in global electricity demand, allowing for a reduction in fossil fuel combustion in several regions.
However, the rapid development of renewable energy is accompanied by challenges. The main challenge is ensuring the reliability of energy systems with variable sources. During periods when demand growth exceeds the introduction of "green" capacities or weather reduces output (calm periods, droughts, abnormal cold), countries are forced to resort to traditional generation to balance the grid. For example, in 2025, the economic revival in the US led to a temporary increase in electricity generation at coal-fired plants, as the existing RES capacity was insufficient to cover the additional demand. In Europe, weak winds and reduced hydro resources during the summer and fall of 2025 forced a short-lived increase in gas and coal combustion to maintain energy supply. By winter 2026, extremely cold weather in North America and Eurasia triggered a surge in electricity consumption for heating – traditional gas and coal plants urgently increased generation to compensate for reduced RES output. These cases underscore that while the share of solar and wind is unstable, coal, gas, and, in some areas, nuclear power play a role as a safety net, covering peak loads and preventing blackouts.
Energy companies and governments worldwide are actively investing in solutions aimed at smoothing the variability of "green" generation. Industrial energy storage systems (powerful batteries, pumped hydro storage) are being constructed, electric grids are being upgraded, and smart demand management systems are being introduced. All this enhances the flexibility and resilience of energy systems. Nevertheless, in the coming years, the global energy balance will remain hybrid. The rapid growth of RES goes hand in hand with maintaining a significant role for oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which provide basic stability. Experts predict that only by the end of the current decade will the share of fossil resources in generation start to confidently decrease as massive new RES capacities are introduced and climate initiatives are implemented. As long as traditional and renewable sources work in tandem, simultaneously ensuring both progress in decarbonization and uninterrupted energy supply for economies.
Coal: Sustained Demand Despite Climate Goals
The global coal market demonstrates how inertial resource consumption can be. Despite vigorous decarbonization efforts, coal usage on the planet remains at historically high levels. According to preliminary estimates, global demand for coal increased by about 0.5% in 2025, reaching around 8.85 billion tons – a historical maximum. The primary growth has come from Asian countries. In China, which consumes more than half of the world's coal, electricity generation from coal-fired plants, although reduced in relative terms due to the record introduction of RES, remains colossal in absolute volumes. Moreover, fearing energy shortages, Beijing approved the construction of several new coal-fired power plants in 2025, striving to create power reserve capacities. India and Southeast Asian countries also continue to burn coal actively to meet growing energy consumption, as alternative generation in many of them fails to keep pace with economic growth.
After sharp price surges in 2022, the coal market transitioned to relative stability in 2025. Prices for thermal coal at major Asian hubs (such as Australia's Newcastle) remained significantly below the peak values of the crisis period, although still somewhat higher than pre-crisis levels. This price environment encourages leading producing countries to maintain high production and export volumes of coal. Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa – these leading exporters have increased supply in recent years, helping to meet high demand and prevent shortages in the market. International experts believe that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the current decade and then begin to decline – as climate policies tighten and coal generation is replaced by renewable energy. However, in the short term, coal remains a key part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base electricity generation and heat for industry, so until a full-fledged replacement emerges, coal-fired power plants will continue to play an irreplaceable role in sustaining economies.
The Russian Oil Products Market: Continued Measures to Stabilize Prices
In the Russian domestic fuel sector, a relative stabilization has emerged by early 2026, achieved through unprecedented government measures. As early as August–September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in the country hit historical records, surpassing levels from the crisis year of 2023. This was due to a combination of high summer demand (peak transportation and harvest campaign) and reduced fuel supply – among the factors were unscheduled repairs and accidents at a number of major oil refineries (refineries), including due to drone strikes, which reduced gasoline output. Faced with the threat of shortages and price shocks for consumers, authorities swiftly intervened in market mechanisms, launching an emergency normalization plan:
- Export Ban: In mid-August 2025, the Russian government imposed a complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, extending it to all producers – from independent mini-refineries to major oil companies. This measure, which has been extended several times (most recently until the end of February 2026), returned hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel to the domestic market that had previously been shipped abroad monthly.
- Partial Resumption of Exports: Starting in October 2025, as the domestic market became saturated, strict restrictions began to be gradually eased. Major refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments under strict state control, while for smaller traders and intermediaries, export barriers largely remained. Thus, the export channel was opened cautiously to avoid a new price spike domestically. In fact, at the beginning of 2026, the export of oil products from Russia remains partially constrained – authorities intentionally withhold fuel volumes in the domestic market to ensure its saturation.
- Control of Fuel Distribution: One of the steps taken was to increase control over petroleum products movement within the country. Producers were obligated to prioritize domestic market needs, and the practice of mutual exchange purchases between companies (which previously contributed to surging exchange prices) was prohibited. The government, in collaboration with relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, Federal Antimonopoly Service), developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing exchange intermediaries. This aims to ensure a more direct and fair delivery of fuel to retail gas stations and avoid speculative price hikes.
- Subsidies and Price Dampening Mechanism: Financial instruments have been engaged to curb prices. The government increased budget subsidies to oil refineries and expanded the implementation of the dampening mechanism (reverse excise tax), which compensates companies for lost income when redirecting products to the domestic market instead of exporting. These payments stimulate oil companies to send sufficient amounts of gasoline and diesel to Russian gas stations, without fearing substantial losses due to missed export revenues.
The complex of these measures has already yielded tangible results by early 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have retreated from their peak values, and consumer prices at gas stations have risen moderately – throughout 2025, gasoline and diesel increased on average by 5–6%, roughly in line with overall inflation. A domestic fuel shortage was avoided: gas stations across the country, including remote rural areas during the height of the autumn field works, were supplied with fuel. The Russian government states that it will continue to keep the situation under strict control. At the first signs of new imbalances, fresh export restrictions may be promptly introduced or fuel interventions from state reserves may occur. For participants in the energy sector market, such a policy means relative predictability of domestic prices, although exporters of oil products must contend with partial restrictions. Overall, stabilizing the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that even under external challenges – sanctions and volatility in global prices – domestic prices for gasoline and diesel can be maintained within acceptable levels, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
