Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News for Sunday, January 11, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets, and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Sector Companies.
Current developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on January 11, 2026, capture the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tension has reached new heights: the United States has intensified its sanction pressure in the energy sector, which threatens to redistribute global oil and gas flows. Meanwhile, global oil and gas markets are demonstrating relative resilience. Oil prices, having fallen in 2025, have stabilized at moderate levels, reflecting a balance between supply surplus and restrained demand. The European gas market is enduring the peak of winter without upheaval; record gas storage levels and mild weather are keeping prices low, ensuring comfort for consumers. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy sources are setting new generation records, although countries’ energy systems still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for reliability. In Russia, after a spike in fuel prices last autumn, authorities are continuing to implement measures to stabilize the domestic petroleum market. Below is a detailed overview of key developments and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Keeps Prices at Moderate Levels
World oil prices are maintaining relative stability at low levels, influenced by fundamental factors of supply and demand. The North Sea Brent blend is trading at around $60–62 per barrel, while the American WTI is in the range of $55–59. Current quotes are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting a continued market correction in 2025 following the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022–2023. Concerns over overproduction are pressing down on prices: OPEC+ countries increased production by nearly 3 million barrels per day last year, reclaiming market share, while global demand growth slowed amid moderate economic growth and increased energy efficiency.
Market participants note that the alliance of the largest oil exporters is currently focused on stability. In early January, eight key OPEC+ countries held a brief meeting and unanimously decided to maintain current production limits at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This step is driven by the seasonally low winter demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the desire to prevent new market oversupply. Approval of the status quo in production was achieved despite political tensions within the cartel—the priority remains to avoid price drops. As a result of such preventive measures, oil is held within a narrow price range, and volatility has decreased. However, investors and oil companies are closely monitoring geopolitical events that may impact oil supply, whether sanctions or regional conflicts, though fundamental factors currently prevail.
Gas Market: Europe Confidently Navigates Winter, Prices Remain Low
On the gas market, Europe is at the center of attention as it enters the New Year with a solid buffer. By the beginning of winter, EU countries had injected record volumes of gas into their underground storage facilities—storage was nearly 100% full by the end of 2025. Even now, in the midst of the heating season, reserves remain significantly above average levels from previous years, ensuring supply security. An additional factor of stability has been the mild weather in Europe in December and early January, which reduced fuel withdrawal from storage. Along with increasing supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), this keeps natural gas prices at moderate levels.
The benchmark TTF index at the beginning of January is fluctuating around €25–30 per MWh, which is several times lower than the peak values of the energy crisis two years ago. For European industry and consumers, these price levels have been a significant relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for households have decreased compared to last winter. The market is prepared for possible weather surprises—short-term cold snaps may temporarily increase demand and price, but there are currently no systemic risks of fuel shortages. Additionally, a global increase in gas consumption is expected in 2026 (according to the IEA, world gas consumption could reach a new record), primarily driven by Asia. However, at this moment, the supply of LNG and pipeline gas is sufficient to meet demand, and the European strategy of diversifying suppliers and energy conservation is showing its effectiveness.
International Politics: US Sanction Pressure and the Crisis in Venezuela
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly influence sentiment in energy markets. In early 2026, the United States intensified sanction pressure related to Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump approved the promotion of new legislation aimed at penalizing countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas. This bipartisan bill proposes imposing extremely high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports into the US from countries that "knowingly engage in trade" with Russia in the energy sector. The goal is to deprive Moscow of revenues that Washington believes fuel the military conflict in Ukraine. The largest buyers of Russian oil, such as China, India, and several other Asian, African, and Latin American countries, are particularly affected. These measures have already complicated relations between the US and key emerging economies: Beijing openly protests external interference in its trade, asserting that normal economic ties between China and Russia are legitimate and should not be politicized. India, on the other hand, is trying to navigate the situation—while it has indeed reduced its share of Russian oil in its purchases, it is negotiating with Washington about easing previously imposed American tariffs on Indian goods.
Another significant event is the sudden turn of events in Venezuela, which could impact the global oil market. In the first days of January, it was reported that the US carried out a military operation that resulted in the detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by American troops. President Trump stated that Washington is taking responsibility for aiding in the transitional governance of the country until a new government can be formed. This unprecedented action provoked a sharp reaction on the international stage: several countries, including China, condemned the violation of sovereignty and principles of international law. However, many investors in the oil and gas sector are now questioning whether a regime change in Caracas will lead to the gradual return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, but its production has plummeted in recent years due to sanctions and governance crises. Experts agree that even with political changes, there will not be an immediate increase in exports: the country's oil sector needs substantial investments and modernization. Nevertheless, a potential lifting of sanctions against Venezuela in the future could add more heavy oil volumes to the market, which would be a new factor in the balance of power within OPEC+. Thus, political uncertainty—from sanction wars to regime changes in oil-producing countries—remains a backdrop that FEC market participants cannot ignore, though its influence is currently offset by supply excess and coordinated actions of producers.
Asia: Balancing between Imports and Domestic Production
Asian countries, key drivers of energy demand, are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the growing needs of their economies. The actions of India and China are particularly noticeable as their choices significantly impact the global market:
- India: New Delhi is seeking to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressures. After the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India increased its purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western trade restrictions, it slightly reduced Russia's share in its oil imports. At the same time, the country is betting on developing domestic resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Programme for exploring deepwater oil and gas fields. The goal is to open new offshore fields and increase production to satisfy the rapidly growing domestic demand, which is not being met by current production. Additionally, India is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacities (solar and wind power plants) and LNG infrastructure, aiming to diversify its energy balance. However, oil and gas still remain the backbone of its energy supply, necessary for industry and transport, which means India must carefully balance the benefits of importing cheap fuel against the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world’s second-largest economy continues its course towards energy self-sufficiency, combining increased production from traditional resources with unprecedented investments in clean energy. In 2025, China raised its internal coal and oil production to record levels to meet demand and reduce import dependency. Simultaneously, the share of coal in the electricity generation mix has fallen to a multi-year low (around 55%), as billions of dollars are invested in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power plants. Analysts report that China commissioned more renewable capacity in the first half of 2025 than the rest of the world combined, which even helped reduce absolute fossil fuel consumption. Nonetheless, in absolute numbers, China's appetite for oil and gas remains enormous: oil product imports, including from Russia, continue to play a significant role in meeting needs, especially in transportation and chemicals. Beijing is also actively securing long-term LNG supply contracts and developing nuclear energy. It is expected that in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious targets for increasing the share of non-carbon energy, but provisions for retaining traditional capacities will also be included—the authorities do not intend to allow energy shortages, remembering the rolling blackouts of the past decade. Thus, China is moving along two trajectories: implementing the clean technologies of the future while also reinforcing them with a reliable base of coal, oil, and gas in the present.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, affirming its irreversibility. Many countries recorded record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. According to estimates from international analytical centers, total production from wind and solar surpassed the generation from all coal-fired power plants combined for the first time. This historic milestone was reached due to a sharp increase in new capacities: just in the first half of 2025, global solar generation grew by nearly 30% compared to the same period last year, while wind generation increased by 7%. This was sufficient to cover the primary increase in global electricity demand and allowed for a reduction in fossil fuel usage in several regions.
However, the energy transition comes with challenges related to the reliability of electricity supply. When demand growth exceeds the introduction of “green” capacities or weather lets down (calm, drought, frost), systems are forced to compensate for the difference with traditional generation. For instance, in 2025, the United States, facing an economic rebound, increased production at coal-fired power plants, as renewable sources were insufficient to meet the entire consumption growth. In Europe, due to weak wind and hydropower resources in summer and autumn, gas and coal usage partially increased to meet needs. These examples highlight that coal, gas, and nuclear power plants are still playing a role as insurance nets, compensating for the variability of sun and wind. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other technologies to smooth out these fluctuations. However, in the near term, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: the rapid growth of renewable energy goes hand in hand with maintaining a significant place for oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, all of which ensure the stability of energy systems.
Coal: High Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The coal market illustrates how inertia-driven global energy consumption can be. Despite global efforts in decarbonization, coal usage worldwide remains at record high levels. Preliminary data shows that global coal demand grew by another 0.5% in 2025, reaching around 8.85 billion tons—a historic maximum. The main growth came from Asian economies. In China, which consumes more than half of the world's coal, electricity generation from coal, while decreasing in relative terms (thanks to record renewable energy input), remains enormous in absolute volumes. Moreover, Beijing, concerned about potential energy shortages, approved the construction of new coal-fired power plants in 2025, aiming to prevent disruptions. India and Southeast Asia are also actively burning coal to meet their growing energy demands, as alternatives have not been able to keep pace with economic growth.
Steam coal prices stabilized in 2025 after sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (e.g., Newcastle coal), quotes remained significantly below the peak of 2022, albeit above pre-crisis levels. This stimulates mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the decade and subsequently decline as climate policies tighten and new renewable capacities come online. However, in the short term, coal remains a crucial part of energy balance for many countries. It provides base generation and heating for industry; therefore, until effective substitutes are introduced, demand for coal will remain strong. Thus, the struggle between environmental objectives and economic realities continues to determine the fate of the coal industry: the trend towards reduction is evident, but the "swan song" of coal has not yet been sung.
Russian Oil Products Market: Price Stabilization through Government Efforts
The domestic fuel segment in Russia has recently seen relative stabilization, achieved through unprecedented measures by the government. Back in August and September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel on Russian exchanges hit records, surpassing even the crisis levels of 2023. The reasons were a combination of high seasonal demand (summer transportation and harvest campaigns) and a number of supply restrictions, including unplanned repairs and accidents at several oil refineries (ORP), which reduced output. To avoid shortages and protect consumers from price shocks, authorities quickly intervened in market mechanisms and implemented an emergency plan to normalize the situation:
- Export Ban: In mid-August, the government imposed an outright ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel, applying to all producers—from independent plants to major oil companies. This measure, extended until the end of September, brought back hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel that had previously been exported monthly to the domestic market.
- Partial Resumption of Supply: Beginning in October 2025, as the domestic market began to stabilize, restrictions were gradually eased. Large ORPs were permitted to resume some export shipments under strict government control, while smaller traders and intermediaries largely retained export barriers. Thus, the export channel was opened gradually to avoid triggering another domestic price spike.
- Fuel Distribution Control: One of the measures was an increase in control over the movement of oil products within the country. Producers were required to satisfy domestic consumers' requests first and were prohibited from engaging in mutual fuel purchases on the exchange between companies (which had previously driven up prices). The government and relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, FAS) developed mechanisms for direct contracts between plants and gas station networks, bypassing exchange intermediaries to ensure that fuel reaches gas stations at fair prices.
- Market Subsidization: Financial instruments were also employed to curb prices. The state increased the volume of budget subsidies to oil refining enterprises and expanded the use of a damping mechanism (reverse excise), which compensates companies for lost earnings when selling fuel on the domestic market instead of exporting it. These payments encourage oil companies to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to gas stations within the country without fearing losses.
The comprehensive set of measures has already yielded results by early 2026. Wholesale gasoline prices have eased from peak levels, while retail prices at gas stations have risen only moderately (by about 5–6% throughout 2025, close to the inflation rate). A physical shortage of gasoline and diesel in the domestic market was prevented—gas stations are well supplied with fuel, including in rural areas during the autumn work period. The Russian government assures that it will maintain strict control over the situation: at the slightest signs of a new imbalance, fresh restrictions or interventions from state fuel reserves can be promptly introduced. For energy sector market participants, such a policy means predictability in domestic prices, although fuel exporters have to cope with partial restrictions. Overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that even under external challenges—sanctions and volatility in global prices—domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be kept within acceptable limits, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
