Global Oil and Gas News and Energy Update for Saturday, January 10, 2026. Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, and Refineries: Key Events in the Global Fuel and Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
As we approach 2026, the global energy resource market exhibits a balanced state: an oversupply is keeping oil and gas prices in check, while moderate demand is preventing sharp spikes. Brent prices have stabilized around $60–63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is in the range of $55–58 (data from early January). The gas market is experiencing a relatively calm period; record LNG supply volumes and a mild winter in Europe and Asia are maintaining gas prices at low levels (about €28–30/MWh in Europe, with China at five-year lows). Investors are also noting an accelerated transition to "green" energy, with renewable sources achieving record electricity production, but traditional coal and gas stations continue to provide balance to energy systems.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices in Check
The oil market continues to face pressure from fundamental factors: global supply remains high, and demand growth has slowed. In 2025, oil prices fell nearly a fifth from last year's values (the most notable annual decline since 2020), reflecting increased production and weak global economic growth. The OPEC+ alliance suspended its planned production increase for the beginning of 2026 due to "market oversaturation" in December 2025. During a January meeting, leading exporters agreed to maintain production at the fourth quarter level to prevent further price declines. Quotas for January-March remained unchanged: Russia — 9.574 million bpd, Saudi Arabia — 10.103 million bpd, Iraq — 4.273 million bpd, etc. (excluding compensation commitments).
- Factors putting pressure on oil: OPEC+ retention of production freeze in Q1; excessive oil inventories in the market (inventory levels remain high).
- U.S. policy: the U.S. government has begun selling Venezuelan oil and petroleum products (up to 30-50 million barrels) from strategic reserves. Such activity may increase supply, although prices have yet to react sharply.
- Oil prices: Brent futures rose to ~$62–63 per barrel (minimum on December 8), partly due to geopolitical risks. However, analysts predict that if current trends persist, prices will remain moderate, and Brent could still drop to $50–55 by mid-year.
- Russian Urals oil is trading at a record high discount to Brent — around $20–25 (double the annual average). This reflects sanction pressures and an oversupply in the markets. With the ruble strengthening to ~80 against the dollar, the ruble cost of Urals has dropped to about 3000 rubles/barrel (half the level of a year ago).
Gas Market: Record Influx of LNG and Comfortable Reserves
The gas market is benefiting from favorable pricing: European storage facilities are over two-thirds full, ensuring a buffer as winter continues. February futures on TTF are holding at €28–30/MWh, well below the spring peaks of 2022. By the end of 2025, LNG supplies to Europe reached a record 100 million tons, compensating for the decline in pipeline volumes from Russia. Intensified competition in the LNG market is expected to continue in 2026: the U.S. is increasing gas exports, directing up to 70% of supplies to Europe, and new LNG infrastructure is coming online at design capacity.
- Supply and demand balance: oversupply of LNG and a mild winter are leading to price reductions. Analysts predict that average annual gas prices in Europe could drop by 15–20% (down to approx. $350–370 per 1000 m³), and in Asia — by 15% (down to ~$11 per million BTU) due to an oversupply and lack of significant demand growth.
- U.S. LNG exports: in 2025, American LNG deliveries set records — over 124 billion m³ from January to October (up 23% from 2024). The majority is sent to Europe (about 70% of exports), increasing competition in the regional market.
- Asian prices: colder weather is receding, and wholesale LNG prices in China have fallen to five-year lows due to a mild winter and ample reserves. In fact, storage facilities are over 70% full, prompting sellers to offload excess fuel at lower prices.
Geopolitics: Venezuela, Sanctions, and Internal Consolidation within OPEC+
Political events are significantly impacting the fuel and energy complex. Firstly, Venezuela is facing an unprecedented crisis: on January 3, the U.S. detained President Maduro and effectively took control of much of the country's oil sector. Trump announced plans to enlist American oil companies to upgrade Venezuelan infrastructure and increase oil production. Despite possessing the world's largest oil reserves, current production levels are low, and recovery is expected to take years. Market reaction has so far been calm; investors understand that the transition to increased supply will take time.
Secondly, there are contradictions within OPEC+: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have found themselves in conflict (due to the situation in Yemen), marking the most significant rift in the alliance in years. However, at the January meeting, the "eight" countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Algeria, Oman, Kuwait) demonstrated unity — all unanimously confirmed the production freeze and rejected quota increases for February. This reflects the commitment of key players to avoid sharp supply spikes and support market stability.
New sanctions from the West further exacerbate uncertainty. At the end of 2025, the U.S. administration expanded sectoral sanctions against major Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," further limiting export capabilities for raw materials and technology. The European Union, in turn, is discussing tightening environmental regulations (such as establishing a carbon customs mechanism), indirectly affecting the global fuel sector. Overall, geopolitical risks intensify competition for markets and accelerate the diversification of supply chains.
Asia: India and China – Balancing Imports and Increasing Domestic Production
- India: traditionally one of the largest purchasers of cheap oil. Russian oil, sold at discounts (~$5 below Brent), continues to flow into the Indian market, helping to keep domestic fuel prices stable. However, under pressure from the U.S. (import tariffs), the largest refining importer, Reliance Industries, announced it would cease Russian imports in January. This is expected to lower Russian oil imports into India below 1 million bpd, which will be the lowest level in years. India is simultaneously trying to increase its own production and refining, as well as actively developing renewables (solar and wind) to diversify its energy balance and reduce dependence on imports.
- China: in 2025, China introduced record levels of oil and gas into its domestic market, comparable to the previous year. Beijing actively sourced resources from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at favorable prices to replenish strategic reserves. Domestic production of oil and gas has only increased slightly (about 1–2%), and China still covers about 70% of demand through imports. Beijing is investing heavily in exploring new fields and developing technologies, as well as rapidly expanding renewable energy production (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries). Despite efforts to increase domestic production, China will remain one of the world's largest energy importers in the coming years.
Energy Transition and Renewables: Record Growth and the Role of Traditional Sources
- New records for renewables: the global transition to clean energy is gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries achieved historic production highs for solar and wind power plants. In Europe, the combined output from solar and wind sources for the first time exceeded generation from coal-fired power plants, reflecting a rapid phase-out of coal in favor of green technologies.
- Investment in green energy: leading global energy companies (including Shell, BP, Total, and even "Rosneft" and "Novatek") are announcing large-scale projects for green fields — from offshore wind farms to large solar farms and storage systems. The desire to meet climate goals and reduce carbon footprints is stimulating billions in investment into clean energy.
- Retention of backup capacity: as the share of renewables increases, the burden on energy systems grows, as solar and wind stations produce unstable energy. Therefore, countries are maintaining reserves from traditional sources: gas, coal, and nuclear power plants continue to provide baseline loads and balance the grid during peak consumption periods.
- Climate goals: many governments are tightening environmental policies and decarbonization plans. Governments are implementing quotas, carbon taxes, and promoting green technologies (hydrogen, electric transport, smart grids). This is forming a long-term trend towards a gradual reduction of fossil fuels in the global energy balance.
Market for Oil Products and the Domestic Fuel Market in Russia
- Export restrictions: the Russian government has extended its ban on the export of gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, and other oil products until the end of February 2026. This is to maintain sufficient domestic supply after the 2025 deficit. Restrictions are lifted only for refiners (refineries) that can export products when they have excess capacity.
- Market assurance: agencies cite several risks: attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries and oil depots, along with a sharp increase in wholesale fuel prices in the summer of 2025. Currently, the situation is calmer, with some refineries already restoring normal operation, and the seasonal drop in consumption (winter) is alleviating pressure on the market.
- Fuel imports from the CIS: Belarus has increased fuel supplies to Russia, allowing domestic reserves to be replenished and backup stocks to be built up. In case of oversupply, the Ministry of Energy is prepared to cut imports from Belarus to prevent overproduction. Thus, the risk of total deficit in the domestic market is decreasing.
- Gasoline prices in Russia: due to decreasing wholesale quotes and stabilizing production, experts expect price stability at gas stations in January 2026. After autumn spikes, Russian authorities lifted some regulatory measures (excise tax relief), and a moderate decline in wholesale prices is observed, which should prevent retail prices from rising sharply. In general, the beginning of 2026 is traditionally considered calm for the fuel market.
