Oil and Gas News and Energy, Wednesday, December 3, 2025 — OPEC+ Implements Capacity Audit, Oil Prices Decline

Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Wednesday, December 3, 2025: OPEC+ Decisions, Oil Price Dynamics, Gas Market Situation, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, and Oil Products. Analytics for Investors and Energy Market Participants.

Oil Market

• Global Oil Market: An oversupply and active production growth are putting pressure on prices. Brent is trading around $63/barrel, close to two-year minimum levels.
• OPEC+: At the last OPEC+ meeting, a moderate increase in oil production was agreed for December (+137 thousand barrels/day from November levels), while maintaining a pause for further increases at the beginning of 2026.
• USA: U.S. oil production continues to rise: in July 2025, production in the Lower 48 states reached a record 11.4 million barrels/day. Drilling efficiency is improving, even as the number of active rigs decreases.
• Transportation: Last week, Ukrainian drones damaged a terminal on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in the Black Sea, but oil pumping has already resumed through another berth.

Gas Market

• European Stocks: Europe's gas storage is filled to about 75–80%, reinforcing a calm atmosphere in the market. January TTF futures have fallen to historically low levels of ~€28/MWh ($335/thousand m³), aided by warm weather and excess fuel supplies.
• LNG Supplies: LNG exports from the U.S. and Australia are actively increasing. There is a record number of LNG carriers en route globally. Meanwhile, demand in Asia is slowing down: China is reducing its own LNG purchases and even reselling excess supplies, which further stabilizes the European market.
• Russia – China: Gazprom is setting records for gas supplies to China: on December 1, the "Power of Siberia" pipeline transferred over 100 million m³/day for the first time, with annual volumes planned to increase to 44 billion m³. The rise in supplies through the "Power of Siberia" reduces China’s dependence on LNG and impacts the global gas balance.
• Transit and Negotiations: Consultations continue regarding the extension of gas transit through Ukraine after 2024 and discussions about Russia's energy relations with the European Union. Market participants expect that final agreements on gas may affect the supply structure to Europe in 2026.

Electric Power and Renewable Energy

• Infrastructure Investments: At the COP30 climate conference, major global utilities announced plans to increase energy transition spending to a record ~$148 billion per year. Of this, approximately $66 billion per year will go towards new renewable energy sources, and around $82 billion on the construction of networks and energy storage.
• Renewable Energy Growth: Installed capacity of green generation is actively growing. Many countries set annual records for the installation of solar and wind power plants in 2025 (for example, India added over 25 GW of new capacity in the first 7 months). The accelerated increase in renewable energy keeps CO₂ emissions levels in check.
• Decarbonization: The final document from COP30 reaffirmed commitments under the Paris Agreement but did not introduce a direct phase-out of oil and coal. At the same time, certain countries are tightening their environmental policies: South Korea has announced its entry into the Powering Past Coal alliance and promised not to build new coal-fired power plants, aiming to decommission 40 out of 61 operating power stations by 2040.
• European Strategy: The European Union continues its course towards energy independence. Envoys have agreed on a plan to completely phase out Russian oil and gas imports by 2028, as well as to implement an embargo on Russian LNG by 2027. Simultaneously, member states are required to fill gas storage to at least 90% by November 2027.

Coal Sector

• Asian Demand: In Southeast and South Asia, coal remains the primary source of electricity. Long-term contracts and a rapidly growing industry support high levels of coal consumption, although the share of renewable sources is gradually increasing.
• China: The world's largest coal consumer shows signs of demand stabilization. The growth of coal generation is expected to be restrained – new power plants are being built slower, and several provinces are imposing restrictions on coal projects. This has already affected the slowdown in CO₂ emissions growth.
• Carbon Transition: Some countries have officially announced their departure from coal. For example, South Korea has joined the Powering Past Coal alliance, abandoned the construction of new coal-fired power plants, and committed to closing most of its operating coal power stations by 2040.

Oil Products and Refineries

• Fuel Demand: Global consumption of diesel and jet fuel continues to grow (stimulating distillate fractions), while gasoline demand is relatively weak due to increased energy efficiency of transport and slowed economic growth.
• Refinery Operations: Many large refineries in Asia and the Middle East are operating at nearly full capacity to meet domestic demand and fuel exports. European refineries are overloaded, utilizing alternative sources of oil (e.g., Azerbaijani or Kazakh) to compensate for restrictions on Russian oil.
• Margins and Projects: Refining margins remain uneven: low oil prices constrain profitability amid oversupply, but diesel shortages support the profitability of distillate refineries. New expansion projects are underway in Asia and the Middle East, while investments in refineries in several developed countries are limited due to the transition to renewable sources and strict environmental regulations.

Companies and Investments

• Russian Emissions: Gazprom Neft is preparing to place ruble-denominated bonds worth up to 20 billion rubles with a floating coupon tied to the key rate. The Russian Energy Ministry has approved the investment program of RusHydro for 2026, with total financing remaining at previously planned levels.
• Market Deals: International companies are activating diversification. ExxonMobil is negotiating with the Iraqi government to acquire a stake in Lukoil's major West Qurna-2 field, as Lukoil plans to divest foreign assets due to sanctions. Meanwhile, traders and oil companies (Gunvor, Vitol, Citadel, etc.) are increasing investments in oil and gas production, especially in U.S. shale gas projects, trying to build integrated supply chains.
• Major Investment Programs: Besides private deals, energy companies and investors plan significant capital injections into the sector. The global association of energy holding UNEZA projects over $1 trillion in investments by 2030 (including support for tens of thousands of kilometers of new lines and battery capacity), while increasing production and infrastructure remains a priority in the oil and gas sector.

Geopolitics and Regulation

• Ukraine: Negotiations to end the conflict remain an important factor for the markets. At the same time, practical actions continue: Russia and Ukraine are mutually striking at infrastructure (oil and gas facilities and tankers). Against this backdrop, the risk premium on energy carriers has increased, although hopes for the settlement of military actions exert downward pressure.
• Sanctions: Western sanctions on Russian energy carriers continue to impact the market. U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil have already reduced oil and gas revenue for the Russian budget, with January–November 2025 prices for tax purposes falling nearly to $57/barrel, while the ruble has strengthened. The EU is gradually implementing a comprehensive ban on Russian oil and gas: envoys have approved legislation to phase out Russian fuel by 2028 and plan an LNG embargo by 2027.
• Middle East and Asia: Instability in the region continues to impact oil and gas markets. Iranian oil reserves and the potential revival of its exports remain on OPEC's agenda, while a potential normalization of U.S. relations with Venezuela could alter supply structures. Meanwhile, Asian states are strengthening energy security through bilateral agreements and the development of local resources.

Structured facts and analytics on key events in the commodity and energy markets are provided for investors and participants in the global energy sector.