Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector on Friday, December 19, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
As December draws to a close, significant changes are taking place in the global fuel and energy sector. A combination of long-standing price lows in raw materials and geopolitical shifts creates an ambiguous backdrop, attracting the attention of investors and market participants. On the one hand, oil is trading at its lowest levels in years amidst expectations of oversupply and signals of progress in the resolution of the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, gas prices in Europe continue to fall even amid winter cold due to record LNG supplies. At the same time, global coal demand peaked in 2025 and is about to enter a phase of sustained decline as the energy transition accelerates.
In this context, governments and companies are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to ease sanctions-related tensions and stabilize supplies, while others are ramping up investments in both the oil and gas sector and green energy. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil and Oil Products
The global oil market remains under pressure, with prices near multi-year lows. The North Sea Brent brand hovers around $60 per barrel (occasionally dipping below this psychological barrier), while American WTI is trading around $55—these levels are the lowest since 2020. Key factors influencing the cheapening of oil include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: A surplus of production over demand is forecast for 2026. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the USA and Brazil) have increased production to record levels. At the same time, the growth rate of global demand is slowing—industry forecasts indicate that demand growth in 2025 was about +0.7 million barrels per day (compared to more than +2 million in 2023), leading to stockpiling and pressuring prices.
- Hopes for Peace in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has generated expectations for partial sanction relief and a return of part of the Russian oil export to the market. The prospect of a truce has heightened expectations of increased supply, contributing to the decline in oil prices.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradual production quota increases, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to halt further increases in the first quarter of 2026. The cartel signals caution amid the risk of oversupply and expresses readiness to adjust production if needed, although no official announcements regarding emergency measures have been made.
Influenced by these factors, oil has significantly declined compared to the beginning of the year. There is a likelihood that Brent and WTI will finish 2025 at minimum values since mid-2020. The drop in raw material prices has already reflected on the oil products market: gasoline and diesel have decreased in price in most regions. In the US, retail gasoline prices have fallen as the holiday season approaches across almost all states, reducing consumer expenses. European refiners, transitioning to alternative raw materials instead of Russian oil, maintain stable supplies. Global refineries continue to operate at high processing levels, benefiting from cheaper oil, although fuel demand growth remains moderate. Refining margins overall are stable; no shortages of gasoline or diesel are noticed in the global market.
Gas Market and LNG
The gas market presents a paradoxical situation: despite an early and cold winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline. Dutch TTF hub prices have fallen below €30 per MWh—this is the lowest level since spring 2024, nearly 90% lower than the peaks of the 2022 crisis and approximately 45% lower than prices at the beginning of the current year. The primary reason is the unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, which compensates for the reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas storage facilities in the European Union are filled to about 75%, which, while below the average historical levels for December, combined with record LNG imports, ensures enough resources for stable pricing even in cold weather.
- Europe: High volumes of LNG imports have lowered gas prices despite increased consumption in the heating season. In 2025, more than half of European LNG imports were supplied by US providers redirecting cargo from Asian markets. This has led to a noticeable narrowing of the spread between European prices and lower US gas prices.
- USA: In North America, gas futures have risen amid forecasts of abnormal cold temperatures. At the Henry Hub, prices went above $5 per MMBtu due to the threat of a polar vortex and the associated spike in heating demand. However, domestic gas production in the US remains high, which keeps prices in check as weather conditions normalize.
- Asia: The Asian gas market is relatively balanced by the end of the year. Demand in key countries (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, so some additional LNG shipments have been directed to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, remained stable and avoided sharp fluctuations as competition for cargo between Europe and Asia has weakened compared to the situation in 2022.
As a result, the global gas market enters winter with much more confidence than a year ago. The available reserves and flexible import supplies are sufficient to meet needs even during periods of severe cold. The maneuverability of the LNG market plays a key role: tankers are quickly redirected in favor of Europe, smoothing regional imbalances. If this winter's temperature remains within historical averages, the price situation for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal sector reached a historic peak in consumption in 2025; however, prospects indicate a swift slowdown ahead. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption rose by approximately 0.5% to a record 8.85 billion tons. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation in the world; however, its share is expected to gradually decline: analysts predict that coal demand will plateau, followed by a decline by 2030 due to the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. At the same time, regional dynamics vary:
- India: Coal consumption has decreased (only the third time in the past 50 years) due to an exceptionally strong monsoon season. Heavy rains increased hydroelectric generation and reduced electricity demand from coal-fired power plants.
- USA: Coal usage, on the contrary, has increased. This was influenced by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the sector. The new presidential administration in Washington has suspended the decommissioning of several coal-fired power plants, temporarily increasing demand for coal for generation.
- China: The world's largest coal consumer has maintained its usage at last year's level. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined; however, gradual declines in consumption are expected by the end of the decade as colossal capacities for wind, solar, and nuclear energy are commissioned.
Thus, 2025 is likely to be the peak year for the coal industry. In the future, increased competition from gas (where feasible) and especially from renewable sources will push coal out of the energy balance of many countries. Nevertheless, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing Asian economies, where growth in energy consumption still outpaces the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues its transformation under the influence of climate agendas and fuel price fluctuations. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries introduced record capacities of solar and wind power plants. For instance, China actively increased solar generation, while Europe and the US commissioned new offshore wind farms and large-scale photovoltaic projects, stimulated by state support and private investments. By the end of the year, global investments in green energy remain high, closely approaching the volumes of investments in fossil fuels.
The rapid growth of RES, however, raises the challenge of ensuring the resilience of energy systems. In Europe this winter, the factor of variable weather has manifested itself: periods of weak wind and short daylight hours have increased loads on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries were forced to temporarily boost gas and coal production due to the anticyclone, which led to a decrease in output from wind farms, causing electricity prices to rise in certain regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growth of RES capacities and a significant share of gas in the balance, serious issues with energy supply have been avoided. Governments and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and network modernization to smooth out peak loads and integrate renewable energy.
The climate commitments of countries continue to set the direction for the industry's development. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls were made to accelerate the energy transition. A number of countries agreed to triple the capacity of RES by 2030 and achieve a significant increase in energy efficiency. Concurrently, in many regions, there is a revival of interest in nuclear energy: new nuclear power plants are being built and the service life of existing ones is being extended to provide baseload generation without emissions. Overall, the electricity sector is moving towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period requires a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental goals.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on global energy markets. The focus remains on the conflict in Eastern Europe and the related restrictions:
- Peace Negotiations: In December, the most significant progress in peace dialogue over Ukraine has emerged since the conflict began. The USA expressed readiness to provide Kyiv with security guarantees similar to NATO, and European mediators noted constructive progress in the negotiations. Hopes for a ceasefire have increased, although Moscow states it will not agree to territorial concessions. Growing optimism regarding the potential cessation of hostilities has sparked discussions about the prospects for partial easing of oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the future.
- Sanction Pressure: Meanwhile, western countries are signaling their readiness to increase pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions targeting the Russian energy sector, which may be implemented in the event of a breakdown in negotiations. Earlier this fall, the USA and the UK had already expanded sanctions against the oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating their ability to attract investments and access technologies.
- Infrastructure Risks: Combat operations and sabotage continue to threaten energy facilities. The Ukrainian side intensified drone strikes on oil infrastructure deep within Russia last week. Specifically, fires were recorded at refineries in Krasnodar Krai and along the Volga due to drone strikes. Although these incidents locally only slightly reduce the overall level of fuel supply, they underscore the retention of military risks to the sector until a lasting peace is established.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics also affects the oil market. After partially easing sanctions against Venezuela in the fall, the USA have tightened control over the fulfillment of the terms of the deal. In December, an incident occurred involving the arrest of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil due to suspicions of violating its license. The state company PDVSA faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and revise supply terms. This complicated Venezuela's efforts to increase exports, despite the recent US authorization to temporarily boost production in exchange for political concessions from Caracas.
Overall, the sanction standoff between Russia and the West, along with other international disagreements, continues to introduce uncertainty into the global energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring political news, as any changes—from breakthroughs in peace negotiations to the introduction of new restrictions—can significantly impact oil, gas, and other energy prices.
Corporate News and Projects
Major energy companies and infrastructure projects worldwide are concluding the year with a series of important events and decisions:
- Aramco Enters the Indian Market: Saudi Aramco has revived plans to invest in a large refinery complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish a foothold in the rapidly growing Indian market and secure long-term sales channels for its oil.
- New Project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another large offshore field in Guyana, aiming for production to commence by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to rise rapidly, strengthening the country's position as one of the most dynamically growing new oil producers.
- Record Wind Farm in the North Sea: The largest offshore wind power plant in the world, Dogger Bank, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW, has been completed in the North Sea. The project was realized by a consortium of European energy companies and is capable of supplying electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone marks a significant advance in renewable energy development and demonstrates the potential of large-scale green projects.
Overall, players in the oil and gas and energy sectors are adapting to the new market realities. Some are revising their asset portfolios considering geopolitical risks and shifting market conditions (such as Aramco exploring new sales markets), while others are taking advantage of favorable circumstances to increase production and implement projects (such as ExxonMobil and partners in Guyana). Concurrently, investments continue in both traditional oil and gas sectors and in the energy transition—from wind energy to hydrogen. The industry faces the necessity to balance short-term profitability with long-term decarbonization goals, and this balance will determine the key strategic decisions of companies at the threshold of 2026.
