Oil and Gas News and Energy — Tuesday, December 23, 2025: Oil at Lows, Hopes for Peace, Gas Market Stable
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 23, 2025 are drawing the attention of investors and market participants with mixed signals. On the diplomatic front, there have been some positive shifts: negotiations involving the US, EU, and Ukraine instill cautious optimism regarding a possible truce in the protracted conflict. However, no concrete agreements have been reached yet, and a strict sanctions regime in the energy sector remains intact.
The global oil market continues to be pressured by excess supply and weakened demand. Benchmark Brent crude prices have fallen to around $60 per barrel—the lowest level since 2021. This indicates a surplus of raw materials in the market. Conversely, the European gas market is demonstrating resilience: even at the peak of winter consumption, underground gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to about 68%, and stable supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas are keeping prices at a moderate level significantly below last year’s values.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. Many countries are setting new records in generating electricity from renewable sources (RES), although for the reliability of energy systems, traditional coal and gas power plants continue to play a vital role. In Russia, following a summer spike in fuel prices, the authorities have taken stringent measures (including extending the ban on exports of oil products), stabilizing the situation in the domestic market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors to date.
Oil Prices and OPEC+ Strategy
The oil market continues to experience price declines: Brent is holding around $60 per barrel, while WTI is around $55, marking the lowest level in nearly four years. Investors note that a combination of fundamental factors prevents prices from rising—instead, it supports a bearish trend.
- Supply Increase: Rising production from both OPEC+ countries and independent producers has resulted in excessive volumes of oil. Since spring 2025, total production from OPEC+ countries has increased by nearly 3 million barrels per day, with other exporters also hitting record levels, creating a surplus of raw materials in the market.
- Hope for Peace: Progress in negotiations to resolve the situation in Ukraine has fostered expectations of easing sanctions and the full return of Russian oil volumes to the global market. This factor adds further pressure on prices as it is factored into market expectations.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradual production increases, participants in the OPEC+ agreement have decided to suspend any further increase in supply in the first quarter of 2026 to avoid oversupply. At the December meeting, the alliance agreed to a mere symbolic uplift in quotas (+137 thousand barrels per day) and is prepared to act based on the situation going forward. Key exporters declare their commitment to market stability and readiness to cut production again if prices dip below acceptable levels (around $50 per barrel).
The combined effects of these factors are keeping the global oil market in a state of moderate surplus. Geopolitical incidents and new restrictions currently only cause short-term price fluctuations without altering the overall downward trend. Market participants are awaiting new signals—from the progress of diplomatic efforts to actions by OPEC+—that could shift the risk balance for oil prices.
Natural Gas and LNG Market
The European gas market has entered the winter season with relative confidence. Gas storage facilities across the EU are more than two-thirds full, minimizing the risk of shortages even during peak demand periods. Active LNG imports have compensated for the near-total halt of direct pipeline supplies from Russia, allowing gas prices to stabilize at levels significantly below the crisis peaks of 2022, greatly easing the burden on industry and households.
- Record LNG Imports: In 2025, Europe imported around 284 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas—an all-time high. The US has become a key supplier (accounting for up to 60% of the volume), with significant shipments also coming from Qatar, Africa, and other regions.
- Ending Russian Gas Imports: The European Union is planning to completely stop importing Russian gas by 2027. Starting in early 2026, a ban on purchasing Russian LNG on the spot market will come into effect, forcing EU countries to fully pivot to alternative supply sources.
On a global scale, gas demand remains stable primarily due to Asian markets; however, competition among suppliers is intensifying. Middle Eastern and North African countries are actively investing in new LNG projects, aiming to capture a share of the growing market. Simultaneously, expanding gas exports from the US and Australia are leading to oversupply, keeping global prices in moderate ranges.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth
The year 2025 has been a milestone for renewable energy. Throughout the world, there has been unprecedented installation of new solar and wind generation capacities. According to industry reports, the amount of installed solar and wind power plants in the first half of 2025 increased by more than 60% compared to the same period last year. For the first time in history, electricity generation from RES has surpassed that from coal power plants (calculated over a six-month period). Total global investments in “clean” energy in 2025 reached around $2 trillion; however, even these record growth rates are insufficient for achieving climate goals, requiring further investment increases and modernization of electrical grids.
China stands out as a success story, having become a locomotive for the energy transition. By adding hundreds of gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity, the PRC was able in 2025 to hold CO2 emissions steady despite rising energy consumption. China's experience demonstrates that large-scale investments in RES can simultaneously meet growing electricity demand while reducing the carbon footprint of the economy.
Coal Sector: Peak Demand
Global coal demand in 2025 reached an all-time high, although the pace of growth has virtually stalled. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption increased only by 0.5%—to ~8.85 billion tons, marking a record volume. A prolonged plateau phase is forecasted, followed by gradual decline by 2030. Coal remains the largest fuel for electricity generation worldwide, but its share has started to decrease due to competition from alternative energy sources.
- China: In the largest coal consumer, China (accounting for about half of global demand), consumption stabilized in 2025. A gradual decline in coal use is expected by the end of the decade as new RES capacities come online.
- India: Thanks to a record volume of hydroelectric generation in 2025, India has, for the first time in many years, recorded a temporary decrease in coal consumption.
- The USA: In the United States, there has been a slight increase in coal burning due to high gas prices and government measures to support extending the operation of coal-fired power plants.
Thus, the peak of global coal demand is nearing. Future dynamics in the sector will depend on the pace of the energy transition in the largest economies. As the development of RES and other clean sources accelerates, gradual displacement of coal from the energy balance is anticipated.
Refined Products and Processing: High Margins
The refined products market by the end of 2025 is demonstrating high profitability for oil refineries (refineries). Global margin indicators for oil refining (so-called “crack spreads”) have risen to multi-year highs. This is due to several factors: sanctions that have cut exports of oil products from Russia, the closure of several major refineries in Europe and the USA for maintenance, and delays in launching new refining capacities in the Middle East and Africa. The European diesel fuel market remains particularly profitable: diesel refining margins in Europe have risen to levels unseen since 2023, indicating a structural deficit of this type of fuel.
In response, refiners are raising their operating rates everywhere, aiming to take advantage of favorable conditions. Major oil companies have reported a sharp increase in profits in the downstream segment (refining and sales) in recent quarters due to high gasoline and diesel prices. According to the IEA, European refineries increased oil refining by several hundred thousand barrels per day in the second half of 2025 due to record margin figures. Analysts note that without new capacity entering Europe and North America, fuel shortages may persist, sustaining high margins into 2026.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Markets
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly affect raw material markets. Sanction regimes against the oil and gas sector remain in effect, and recent events demonstrate strict adherence to restrictions. In December, the US intercepted a tanker carrying oil off the coast of Venezuela, thwarting an attempt to circumvent sanctions. Concurrently, Washington has intensified pressure on the "shadow fleet" transporting Iranian oil: despite new bans, exports from Iran in 2025 have reached their highest levels in recent years due to active shipments to Asia. Russian oil and oil product exports have been fully redirected to alternative markets (China, India, the Middle East); however, price caps and EU embargoes continue to slash industry revenues. The European Union is tightening restrictive measures as well: in addition to the existing oil embargo, a ban on importing Russian LNG will come into effect at the beginning of 2026—thus, Europe is logically concluding its refusal of Russian energy carriers.
Against this backdrop, market participants are factoring in heightened geopolitical risks and price premiums in their forecasts. Any signals of potential easing of sanctions or diplomatic progress could significantly influence investor sentiment and price dynamics. For now, oil and gas companies are adapting to the new flow and pricing structure—diversifying logistics and reorienting towards regions less susceptible to sanction pressures.
Investment and Projects: Looking Forward
Despite market volatility, significant investments continue in the energy sector. Middle Eastern countries are ramping up investments in oil and gas production: national companies are expanding production capacities to maintain their market share in the long term. In particular, in the UAE, the state corporation ADNOC has secured financing of around $11 billion for projects aimed at increasing gas production. Concurrently, leading exporters such as Qatar and the USA are implementing LNG terminal expansion programs, anticipating further growth in global demand for “blue fuel.”
Substantial funds are also being directed towards “green” energy. Global investments in renewable sources are growing at an accelerated pace: corporations are investing capital in building solar and wind farms, as well as energy storage facilities. Nevertheless, achieving decarbonization goals will require even more serious efforts and resources. New technologies—such as hydrogen energy and industrial energy storage—are becoming increasingly attractive investment avenues. It is expected that 2026 will bring new merger and acquisition deals in the industry, as well as the launch of large projects in both the traditional oil and gas segment and in the RES sector.
