Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 28, 2025: Hopes for a Peaceful Resolution Increase, Oil and Gas Prices Rise, India Boosts Imports, China Increases Production, Russia Implements Measures to Stabilize Domestic Fuel Market. A Comprehensive Overview of the Global Fuel and Energy Complex.
As 2025 comes to a close, global energy markets are sending mixed signals to investors and industry participants. Negotiations for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine instill cautious optimism regarding a potential easing of sanctions on the Russian fuel and energy sector, yet there remains a long way to go before any breakthrough is achieved, with uncertainty persisting. At the same time, the sanctions regime remains in force: in November, Washington tightened restrictions, expanding sanctions to include transactions with major Russian oil companies, forcing the market to adapt to new conditions.
The global oil market, which experienced a significant drop in prices throughout the year due to oversupply and declining demand, is showing signs of stabilization as December draws to a close. After four months of decline, prices have turned upwards – Brent crude rose from around $60 to $62-63 per barrel, while WTI reached about $58-59. The weekly increase was around 3%, although over the year, oil prices have fallen approximately 16%. Price support has come from geopolitical factors (such as drone attacks on an oil terminal in Novorossiysk and military risks in Nigeria), as well as OPEC+'s decision to maintain production limits for the first quarter of 2026 instead of the planned increase in quotas.
The European gas market started the winter season with record levels of reserves in underground storage, bringing exchange prices down to their lowest in the past year (around $330 per thousand cubic meters at the beginning of December). However, the Christmas cold snap spurred demand: during the holidays, gas withdrawals from underground storage facilities reached record levels, and prices on the TTF hub bounced back to around $345 per thousand cubic meters (approximately €28/MWh). Despite high resource availability, the European market remains sensitive to weather risks. EU countries have nearly ceased imports of Russian pipeline gas (Russia's share has dropped to about 13% of imports) and are betting on LNG – new contracts are being signed with the U.S. and the Middle East, and infrastructure for receiving gas is being strengthened. Consequently, current gas prices, while significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, may rise again during prolonged cold spells.
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum. Many countries are reporting new records in electricity generation from renewable sources: the total capacity of solar and wind power plants put into operation in 2025 has exceeded figures from any previous year. According to industry analysts, for the first half of 2025, renewable energy generation has surpassed coal generation for the first time in history. Investments in “green” energy are also at record highs (estimated at over $2 trillion in 2025), yet they remain concentrated primarily in developed economies and China. For the reliability of energy systems, many countries are hesitant to fully abandon traditional hydrocarbons: coal and gas power plants remain critically important for covering peak demand and balancing the grid, especially during periods when renewables cannot provide sufficient generation.
In Russia, after a sharp spike in gasoline and diesel prices in the fall, authorities implemented a series of urgent measures aimed at normalizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. The government temporarily limited the export of petroleum products, increased the regulatory norms for fuel sales on the exchange, and adjusted the subsidy damping mechanism to direct additional volumes to the domestic market. These steps had a tangible effect: wholesale prices for automotive fuel began to decline. For instance, by mid-December, the exchange price for AI-95 gasoline had dropped by nearly 10% compared to the peak values of the fall. The supply situation at gas stations is stable, and fuel shortages in regions have been resolved. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and fuel segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Rise Amid Limited Supply
Global oil prices experienced moderate increases over the past week following a prolonged period of decline and generally remain relatively stable under the influence of fundamental factors. North Sea Brent has stabilized in the range of $60-63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI hovers around $57-59. Current levels are still about 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction following the price peaks of previous years. The dynamics of the oil market are influenced by several factors:
- OPEC+ Production Policy: To combat supply overhang, OPEC+ countries have refrained from previously planned increases in production. Quotas for the first quarter of 2026 have been maintained at the levels of late 2025, and several major exporters (including Saudi Arabia) continue to voluntarily limit production. These measures aim to prevent overproduction and support prices, but they also lead to a decline in OPEC+'s market share.
- Increase in Non-OPEC Production: Independent producers are ramping up supplies. In the U.S., oil production has approached historical highs of around 13 million barrels per day, thanks to the shale boom, and exports of petroleum products are also increasing. Other non-OPEC countries have also taken advantage of high prices from previous years to boost production, intensifying market competition and creating surplus oil inventories.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil demand in 2025 has been rising much more slowly than during the post-pandemic recovery. According to IEA estimates, demand growth amounted to only about 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts have been revised down to around 1.3 million b/d. Contributing factors include weak global economic growth and the impact of high prices from previous years, which incentivized energy conservation. Additionally, slowing industrial growth in China has limited the appetites of the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: The global geopolitical landscape maintains a degree of uncertainty. Deteriorating situations in the Middle East and Africa periodically threaten supply: for instance, U.S. strikes against radical groups in oil-producing Nigeria and attacks on tankers carrying Venezuelan oil have heightened fears of disruptions. On the other hand, emerging prospects for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine have raised hopes for the easing of some sanctions against Russia and increased exports. While this has yet to materialize, the effects of sanctions remain: Russia sells oil at significant discounts (Urals averages ~$40/bbl in December, substantially below Brent), utilizing alternative markets and a "shadow fleet" of tankers to circumvent embargoes.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Drives Prices Up
The gas market remains focused on Europe. Entering winter with storage facilities filled to over 90%, the EU achieved relative price relief in the fall: at the beginning of December, the spot price of gas fell to ~$330 per thousand cubic meters – the lowest level since mid-2024. However, the cold snap at month’s end led to increased consumption: during the holidays, European underground gas storage lost significant volumes, although reserve levels remain high (by the end of December, storage was still over 75% filled). Prices reacted with a moderate increase but remain several times lower than the crisis peaks of previous winters.
European countries continue to diversify their sources of gas. The share of Russian gas in EU imports has plummeted to a historic low, and even after a potential resolution of the conflict, Brussels intends to maintain restrictions on supplies from Russia. LNG shipments to the European market are on the rise – for instance, major energy companies have signed new contracts for American and Qatari LNG, while some Eastern European countries have begun receiving gas from Azerbaijan and North Africa.
At the same time, demand in Asia remains a significant factor. In China, LNG imports in October increased by nearly 11% compared to the previous year due to industrial recovery following the lifting of quarantine restrictions, while India, conversely, reduced its LNG purchases by 11% (mainly due to high prices and a shift of power plants to coal). Nonetheless, total global gas consumption in 2025 grew – according to Gazprom estimates, by 25 billion cubic meters – thanks to economic recovery and expanded gasification in developing countries. Russia, having lost a significant portion of the European market, has redirected its exports: pipeline supplies to China via the "Power of Siberia" reached 38.8 billion cubic meters in 2025 (a record volume close to project capacity), while Russian LNG exports to European countries (e.g., Belgium) even increased due to the lack of formal prohibitions on liquefied gas.
International Politics: Peace Talks Offer Hope for Easing Sanctions
In the geopolitical sphere, the end of the year is marked by the intensification of dialogue among key global players surrounding the Ukrainian crisis. In mid-December, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a meeting with business representatives, unveiled details of negotiations with the U.S., expressing willingness for "certain territorial compromises" in exchange for consolidating control over the entire Donbass. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stated that "many issues can be resolved" before the New Year, having held a series of consultations with representatives of the U.S. administration in anticipation of a possible meeting with President Donald Trump.
These peace signals are fueling investor hopes for a gradual normalization of relations and potential lifting of some sanctions imposed against Russia. The prospect of signing a peace agreement has already influenced market sentiment: traders are factoring in the possibility of an easing of restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports in the case of a solid ceasefire. However, uncertainty remains high. Until concrete agreements are reached, Western countries continue to pursue a sanctions pressure course. Washington has previously indicated that it is prepared to expand energy sanctions if Moscow prolongs negotiations, while the European Union has agreed to impose a full embargo on Russian gas immediately after hostilities cease. Thus, the further "thaw" of Russian fuel exports largely depends on the outcome of political dialogue in the coming weeks.
Asia: India Increases Imports Amid Pressure; China Hits Production Records
- India: Confronted with unprecedented pressure from the West (for instance, Washington raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%), Delhi is not planning to shy away from profitable imports of Russian raw materials. In December, the volume of oil shipments from Russia to India is estimated at over 1.2 million barrels per day (following a record 1.77 million b/d in November), as Indian refineries rushed to contract crude before new U.S. sanctions against "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" came into effect on November 21. Recent talks between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi reaffirmed the intention to maintain energy cooperation between the two countries despite external pressure.
- China: Beijing is betting on increasing its own energy production and infrastructure. In 2025, crude oil production in China reached a record ~215 million tons (about 4.3 million barrels/day), while gas production also hit new highs. Concurrently, China is investing in expanding oil refining and electricity generation: the launch of new fields and generating capacities partially reduces dependence on imports. Nevertheless, China remains the largest global importer of energy resources - it continues to procure substantial volumes of oil (including at discounted prices from Russia) and LNG to meet demand. The slowdown in China's economy in 2025 somewhat dampened the growth of domestic energy consumption, but the country remains a key driver of demand in the global market.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in Renewables and the Continued Role of Traditional Energy
The development of renewable energy (RE) in 2025 set new benchmarks. Across the globe, new solar and wind power plants were commissioned, increasing the share of "green" generation. Over the year, approximately 750 GW of new renewable capacity was added globally — more than ever before. As a result, during certain periods, renewable energy accounted for over 50% of electricity generation in some countries. Simultaneously, there is a surge in investments in clean energy: their volume, according to analysts, surpassed $2 trillion over the year.
However, despite these impressive achievements, the transition to clean energy faces objective difficulties. Demand for electricity continues to grow as the economy recovers, and traditional sources – gas, coal, nuclear energy – remain necessary for reliable energy supply. In 2025, the global carbon footprint of the energy sector reached a new high, with fossil fuels still accounting for about 80% of global energy consumption. During peak load periods or adverse weather conditions (when sun and wind are insufficient), systems are forced to rely on coal and gas power plants to prevent blackouts. Governments recognize that ensuring energy security and accessibility is a top priority: for example, in Europe and the U.S., subsidy programs for the production of key renewable energy equipment have been introduced, while strategic reserves of oil and gas are also maintained to address crises. Thus, 2025 demonstrated progress in decarbonization but confirmed that traditional energy sources will continue to play a significant role in the global balance for an extended period.
Coal: Market Stability Amid High Demand
Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, the coal sector maintained a solid position in 2025 due to sustained demand. According to IEA estimates, global coal consumption reached a record 8.8 billion tons in the year – roughly 0.5% more than the previous year. The main growth was driven by Asian countries: China and India still burn about two-thirds of the world’s coal for electricity generation and steel production. In Southeast Asia and Africa, the construction of new coal-fired power plants continues, as coal remains one of the most accessible fuels.
Coal prices stabilized in 2025 after a period of sharp fluctuations in 2022-2023. In key Asian markets (such as Australia and Indonesia), the price of thermal coal hovers around $140-150 per ton, which is lower than the peaks of the crisis year 2022 but still comfortable for producers. Major exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa – maintain high levels of production, satisfying the needs of importers. At the same time, developed Western countries continue to reduce their coal usage: in Europe, coal generation in 2025 decreased at double-digit rates thanks to the growth of renewables and environmental restrictions. However, the global decrease in Europe is offset by growth in other parts of the world. Thus, the coal market remains balanced: supply is sufficient to meet high demand, and while the long-term trend is gradually shifting in favor of cleaner energy sources, coal will remain an important part of the global energy balance in the coming years.
Russian Oil Products Market: Operational Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic market for petroleum products, 2025 was marked by unprecedented price fluctuations. In the summer and fall, the sharp rise in gasoline and diesel prices posed a threat to the transport sector and fueled inflation. In response, the Russian government took stringent measures to protect the market: bans and quotas on the export of automotive fuel were implemented, regulatory norms for the sale of petroleum products on the Saint Petersburg Exchange were increased, and budgetary subsidies (damping) were adjusted to provide additional support for refiners supplying products to the domestic market. These measures, along with the completion of planned repairs at refineries, allowed for increased fuel supply within the country.
By the beginning of winter, the situation stabilized. Wholesale prices on the exchange began to decline, which soon reflected on retail prices as well. According to the Saint Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, by mid-December, the prices for "Premium-95" gasoline decreased by about 10% from the September peak. The prices of diesel fuel also fell back to the levels seen at the beginning of the year. Network gas stations across the country report an improved supply of resources, with fuel shortages resolved even in remote regions. Authorities have stated their readiness to extend export restrictions if necessary to curb prices domestically and are also considering implementing a permanent regulation mechanism – for instance, pegging fuel prices to export alternatives with compensation for refiners. As a result of these measures, the fuel crisis has been contained, and the Russian petroleum products market enters 2026 in a relatively balanced state.
