Current News in Oil and Gas and Energy Sector as of January 14, 2026: Oil and Gas Prices, Sanction Policies, Supply and Demand Balance, Refinery Market, Renewable Energy Sources, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector.
The current events in the global fuel and energy complex as of January 14, 2026, are characterized by heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing price pressure due to excess supply. Diplomatic efforts for resolution continue, yet the conflict surrounding Ukraine remains far from resolved, and the U.S. is preparing to tighten sanctions on Russian energy exports. At the same time, the oil market remains oversaturated: Brent crude prices hover around $62–63 per barrel—almost 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting surplus supply and moderate demand. The European gas market shows relative stability: gas reserves in EU storage facilities, although decreasing in the midst of winter, still exceed 55% of capacity, keeping prices at a moderate level (approximately €30/MW·h). Meanwhile, the global energy transition gains momentum—2025 saw record levels of solar and wind capacity installation; however, to ensure the reliability of energy systems, countries are not yet abandoning traditional oil, gas, and coal. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, power, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Excess Supply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain under downward pressure due to an oversupply and insufficient demand. The North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $63 per barrel, while American WTI hovers near $59. These levels are approximately 15–20% lower than last year, reflecting the continued market correction following price spikes in previous years. A combination of several factors supports the current situation in the oil market:
- Increased Production Outside OPEC: World oil supply is rising due to active production in non-OPEC+ countries. In 2025, shipments from Brazil, Guyana, and other nations significantly increased. For example, production in Brazil reached a record 3.8 million barrels per day, and Guyana boosted output to 0.9 million barrels per day, with oil being exported to new markets. Additionally, Iran and Venezuela have slightly increased exports due to partial easing of restrictions, adding oil to the global market.
- Cautious OPEC+ Stance: OPEC+ countries are not rushing to reduce production again. Despite falling prices, official production quotas remain unchanged after previous limitations. As a result, additional OPEC+ oil continues to saturate the market, and the organization aims to maintain its market share while allowing lower prices in the short term.
- Softer Demand: Global oil demand is growing at a more modest pace. Analysts estimate that consumption increased by less than 1 million barrels per day in 2025, compared to 2–3 million barrels per day the previous year. Economic growth in China and some developed countries has slowed to about 4% per year, limiting the increase in fuel consumption. High prices from previous years have also spurred energy conservation and a shift to alternative energy sources, cooling the demand for hydrocarbons.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The ongoing conflict and sanctions create conflicting factors for the oil market. On one hand, risks of interruptions due to sanctions or escalation of the conflict support some price premiums. On the other hand, the absence of significant supply disruptions and reports of ongoing negotiations among major powers somewhat reduce market participants' fears. As a result, prices fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, lacking momentum for either growth or collapse.
Overall, supply currently exceeds demand, creating a situation close to a surplus in the oil market. Global commercial oil and petroleum product inventories continue to rise. Brent and WTI prices confidently remain below the peaks of 2022–2023. Many investors and oil companies are factoring "low" prices into their strategies: various forecasts suggest that in the first quarter of 2026, the average price of Brent could drop to $55–60 per barrel if the current oversupply persists. In this environment, oil companies are focusing on cost control and selective investments, preferring short-term projects and natural gas endeavors.
Natural Gas Market: Europe Endures Winter Without Crisis
On the gas market, the main focus is on Europe, where a relatively calm situation persists in the midst of winter. EU countries entered the heating season with high reserves: at the beginning of January, the average filling level of European underground storage facilities exceeded 60% (compared to a record 70% the previous year). Even after several weeks of active gas withdrawals, storage facilities remain more than half full, providing a resilience buffer for the energy system. Favorable factors supporting the stability of the European gas market include:
- Record LNG Imports: The European Union is maximizing the use of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities. In 2025, total LNG imports to Europe increased by approximately 25%, reaching around 130 billion cubic meters per year, compensating for the cessation of most pipeline gas supplies from Russia. In December, LNG vessels continued to arrive actively at EU terminals, covering the increased winter demand.
- Moderate Demand and Mild Weather: Winter in Europe remains relatively mild, and the energy system is coping without extreme loads. Industrial gas consumption has remained muted due to last year's high prices and energy-saving measures. Wind and solar generation at the beginning of the 2025/26 winter season showed strong results, further reducing gas consumption for electricity generation.
- Diversification of Supply: The EU has recently redeployed new energy import routes. Besides LNG, pipelines from Norway and North Africa are fully operational. The capacity of terminals and interconnections within Europe has been expanded, allowing for quick redistribution of gas to necessary regions. This smooths local imbalances and prevents price spikes.
Thanks to these factors, gas futures prices in Europe are holding at relatively low levels. Futures at the TTF hub are trading around €30/MW·h (approximately $370 per thousand cubic meters)—significantly lower than the peak values seen during the 2022 crisis. Although prices recently increased slightly (by 7–8%) due to a brief cold snap and maintenance work at some fields, the market remains balanced overall. Moderate gas prices are positively affecting European industry and electricity generation by reducing enterprise costs and tariff pressure on consumers. Europe must navigate the remaining winter months: even if the cold intensifies, accumulated reserves are likely sufficient to avert shortages. Analysts estimate that by the end of winter, about 35–40% of gas may remain in storage, significantly above critical levels seen in past years. However, some risk comes from the potential revival of Asian demand—competition between Europe and Asia for new LNG shipments may increase in the second quarter of 2026 if economic growth in Asian countries continues.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Intensifying Measures by the U.S. and Lack of Breakthrough in Negotiations
The geopolitical climate continues to exert significant influence over energy markets. In recent months, diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the conflict in Eastern Europe have taken place: since November 2025, a series of consultations have occurred among representatives from the U.S., EU, Ukraine, and Russia. However, these negotiations have yet to yield tangible progress. Moscow has not shown readiness to concede, while Kyiv and its allies insist on acceptable security guarantees. Against the backdrop of protracted standoffs, Washington signals its willingness to increase sanctions pressure.
New U.S. Sanction Bill. In early January, the U.S. administration publicly supported a bipartisan bill proposing stringent measures against countries aiding in circumventing sanctions or actively trading with Russia. In particular, the proposed "secondary sanctions" would impose restrictions on buyers of Russian oil and gas. Major importers of Russian energy resources, such as China, India, Turkey, and several other Asian countries, could be affected. Washington signals that if these nations do not reduce purchases from Moscow, they might face restrictions on access to U.S. markets or 100% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. The bill has already received a green light from the White House and may soon be put to a vote in Congress. Such a move would be unprecedented for the global oil and gas market: effectively, part of the buyers could find themselves under sanctions, which could redistribute oil trade flows and complicate the price situation.
Reactions and Market Risks. Major consumers, particularly China and India, are in the spotlight. India has long benefited from significant discounts on Russian Urals oil (up to $5 below Brent prices) in exchange for maintaining purchase volumes—such a "favorable" arrangement has enabled New Delhi to boost its imports of Russian crude and petroleum products. China, in turn, has also increased imports from Russia, becoming the primary market for Russian oil following the European embargo. U.S. plans to impose secondary sanctions have sparked sharp discontent in Beijing and New Delhi: these countries are intent on defending their energy security. It is likely that should the law be enacted, they will seek ways to circumvent the new restrictions—such as through transactions in national currencies, shadow fleets of tankers, or refining Russian oil in third countries for re-export. Markets are closely monitoring the situation; the threats of sanctions add uncertainty and could increase price volatility, especially in the Urals market and among tanker shipping. For now, though, existing sanctions remain unchanged, with no significant disruptions observed in Russian oil supplies to the global market—volumes have been redirected to Asia, albeit at a discount.
U.S.-Russia Negotiations. Despite the harsh rhetoric, the dialogue channel between Washington and Moscow remains open. Following a leaders' meeting in August 2025 (where the decision was made to continue consultations), special representatives from both sides have discussed parameters for a potential agreement several times. In December, the U.S. side proposed a framework plan regarding Ukraine’s security in exchange for a gradual easing of some energy sanctions, but Moscow demanded consideration of its conditions, including lifting certain export restrictions and guarantees against NATO’s military infrastructure expansion. Thus far, these differences have not been overcome. Meanwhile, European allies of the U.S. have stated their readiness to continue applying pressure on Russia until the situation improves—new EU restrictions on maritime transportation of Russian petroleum products above the price cap have now come into effect. Thus, political tensions persist: the prospects of a quick lifting of sanctions remain slim. For investors in the energy sector, this implies that sanction risks will continue to be a factor in planning trade operations and investments, especially in projects related to Russia.
Venezuela: Change of Course and Growth Potential in Oil Production
Another significant development that may impact the long-term balance of power in the oil market is the changes in Venezuela. At the end of 2025, the situation in this South American country rapidly changed: Nicholas Maduro's government effectively lost control after he was detained during a special operation with foreign assistance. The U.S. expressed support for forming a transitional administration in Caracas and aims to involve American oil companies in restoring Venezuela's oil industry. For years, the country, possessing the world's largest proven oil reserves, produced less than 1 million barrels per day due to sanctions, lack of investment, and damaged infrastructure.
The new political conditions open up the prospect of gradually increasing Venezuelan oil production. Analysts estimate that with relative stability in the country and an influx of investments from the U.S. and other nations, production in Venezuela could rise by 200–300 thousand barrels per day in the next one to two years. An optimistic scenario by JPMorgan suggests reaching levels of 1.3–1.4 million barrels per day within two years (up from ~1.1 million in 2025), and potentially up to 2.5 million barrels per day within a decade if significant modernization projects are realized. Reports have already emerged in the early days after the power change about plans to audit the state of fields and PDVSA’s infrastructure and to involve international partners in restarting idle wells.
However, experts warn that quick results should not be expected. The Venezuelan oil sector requires extensive upgrading—from repairing refineries to investing in port capabilities. The required investments are estimated in tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. Moreover, there are persisting questions regarding the legitimacy of the regime change and long-term political risks. Some countries—allies of the former authorities—have condemned the external intervention; Russia, for instance, stated that control over Venezuelan oil should not pass to the U.S. This means that diplomatic frictions may arise around the Venezuelan issue.
For the global market, the increase in exports from Venezuela in the coming months will be minimal, but symbolically significant. There is already a noted resumption of shipments of heavy Venezuelan oil to U.S. refineries in the Gulf of Mexico under licenses granted by the new administration. In the medium term, additional Venezuelan volumes could intensify competition in the heavy oil segment dominated by OPEC. According to Goldman Sachs, if production in Venezuela were to rise to 2 million barrels per day in the future, it could reduce Brent's equilibrium price by $3–4 by 2030. Although we are still far from such volumes, investors are factoring in the emergence of a "new old" player in the market. Overall, the situation in Venezuela adds one more factor to the global oversupply, reinforcing expectations that the period of relatively low oil prices may be prolonged.
Energy Transition: Record Green Generation and Role of Coal
Global energy continues to shift toward low-carbon sources, although fossil fuels still hold a significant share in the energy balance. The year 2025 was record-setting for renewable sources: according to the International Energy Agency, about 580 GW of new renewable capacity was installed worldwide. More than 90% of all the new power plants launched last year operate on solar, wind, or hydro energy. As a result, the share of renewable generation in electricity production has reached historic highs in several countries.
Europe and the U.S. In the European Union, the share of electricity generated from renewable sources exceeded 50% for the first time this year. Wind farms in the North Sea, solar farms in Southern Europe, and bioenergy provided the main growth. This allowed the EU to reduce coal and gas consumption for generation by 5% and 3%, respectively, compared to the previous year. The share of coal in the EU energy balance returned to a declining trajectory after a temporary spike in 2022-2023. In the U.S., the renewable energy sector also reached new heights: large solar stations were launched in Texas and California, and wind installations in the Midwest. Consequently, nearly 25% of American electricity now comes from renewable sources—the highest in history. Government initiatives and tax incentives (such as those under the federal Inflation Reduction Act) are spurring further investments in clean energy.
Asia and Developing Markets. China and India are also witnessing rapid growth in renewable energy, although absolute consumption of fossil fuels continues to rise there. China set a record of 130 GW of solar panels and 50 GW of wind energy in a single year, bringing total renewable capacity to 1.2 TW. However, the rapidly growing economy demands more electricity: to avoid shortages, Beijing is concurrently increasing coal production and building coal-fired power plants. As a result, China still generates about 60–65% of its electricity from coal. A similar situation prevails in India: the country is ramping up solar and wind capacity (over 20 GW installed in 2025), but over 70% of Indian electricity is still generated at coal plants. To meet the growing demand, New Delhi has approved the construction of new high-efficiency coal blocks, even against climate goals. Many other developing economies in Asia and Africa (Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, etc.) also balance between expanding renewable energy and the necessity to grow conventional generation to provide base load.
Challenges for Energy Systems. The rapid growth in the share of solar and wind poses new challenges for energy providers. Periodic fluctuations in renewable production require the development of energy storage systems and backup capacities. Already, in Europe and the U.S., during peak load hours or adverse weather conditions, grid operators must utilize gas and even coal stations to stabilize the system. In 2025, several countries reported moments when, due to calm weather and nighttime conditions, the share of renewables dipped, and traditional power plants temporarily carried the primary load. To enhance the flexibility of energy systems, projects on energy storage are scaling up—from industrial batteries to the production of "green" hydrogen for seasonal storage. However, fossil source reserves remain critically important for stable energy supply. Global demand for coal is expected to remain close to record levels in 2026 (around 8.8 billion tons per year) and will only begin to significantly decline towards the end of the decade as clean technologies gain traction and countries fulfill their climate commitments.
Refined Product Market and Processing: Excess Capacity Lowers Fuel Prices
The global refined product market at the beginning of 2026 is in a consumer-friendly state. Prices for major fuel types—gasoline and diesel—are holding significantly below last year's levels, largely due to lower oil prices and increased supply from refineries. Throughout 2025, new refining capacities came online, intensifying competition among refined product producers and enhancing the volumes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel available in the international market.
Capacity Growth in Asia and the Middle East. Major investment projects in refineries initiated in recent years are starting to yield results. In China, several modern refineries ("petrochemical complexes") have come online, cumulatively pushing the country's installed capacity to around 20 million barrels per day—the largest figure in the world. Beijing had planned to limit national capacities to the 1 billion tons per year mark (approximately 20 million barrels per day), and this threshold is now nearly reached. The oversupply of refining capacity within the country is already causing some smaller, older plants in China to operate at reduced loads or potentially shut down in the coming years. In the Middle East, the gigantic Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait has been fully operational, and projects to expand refining in Saudi Arabia (including new complexes with foreign partners) have begun. These new plants are aimed not only at domestic demand but also at exporting fuel—primarily to Asia and Africa, where demand for refined products continues to grow.
Stabilization of the Diesel Market in Europe. The European Union, which experienced tension in the diesel market from 2022 to 2023 due to the withdrawal from Russian supplies, has managed to reorient logistics and avoid shortages in 2025. Diesel and aviation kerosene imports into Europe from the Middle East, India, China, and the U.S. increased, compensating for the absence of Russian exports. India's role has been noticeable: its refineries, receiving discounted Russian oil, produce excess volumes of diesel, a significant share of which is then exported to Europe and African countries. This "flow" has helped maintain stable European diesel prices even during peak summer demand. Within the EU, refiners have also increased product output: Mediterranean and Eastern European refineries operated at high capacity, partially offsetting the closure of some outdated plants in Western Europe. As a result, wholesale diesel prices in Europe dropped approximately 15% by the end of 2025 compared to the beginning of the year, helping to alleviate inflationary pressures.
Refining Margins and Prospects. For refining companies, the situation is dual-faceted: on one hand, cheaper oil reduces the raw material component, while on the other, an excess of fuel and competition squeeze margins. After record-high margins observed in 2022, refiners encountered tightened conditions in 2025. Average global margins decreased, particularly in diesel and fuel oil production. In Asia, due to gasoline oversupply, some plants reduced output and shifted to producing petrochemical products with higher value-add. In Europe, biofuel content requirements and environmental standards are also increasing refinery costs, pushing the industry towards consolidation and modernization. It is expected that in 2026, global refining capacities will continue to grow—new projects in East Africa and expansions in the U.S. are on the horizon. This indicates that competition in the refined product market will remain high, with gasoline and diesel prices likely to remain relatively low unless there is a sharp spike in oil prices.
Prospects and Expected Events
At the beginning of 2026, investors and participants in the energy sector are closely evaluating how key factors influencing prices and supply-demand balance will develop. In the coming months, the dynamics of the global fuel and energy markets will be influenced by the following factors:
- Sanction Decisions and Progress of the Conflict: Whether the new U.S. sanction bill against buyers of Russian oil will be approved and implemented. Its consequences for the global market (potential supply reductions, flow redistributions, and the political reactions from China/India) will be one of the main sources of uncertainty. Concurrently, markets will be on the lookout for any signals of progress or failure in peace negotiations concerning Ukraine—this will directly impact sanction policies and investor sentiment.
- OPEC+ Strategy: Attention will focus on the oil alliance's policy. If oil prices continue to decline, an extraordinary meeting or quota review may occur. The regular OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for the spring, and markets are awaiting whether measures will be taken to reduce production to support prices, or whether the cartel will continue to allow prices to remain at comparatively low levels to maintain market share.
- Economic Dynamics and Demand: The state of the global economy, particularly in China, the U.S., and the EU, will be pivotal for energy demand. If growth rates in GDP or industrial production in China accelerate in the second half of 2026 following stimulus measures, this could elevate oil and LNG consumption, somewhat reducing the surplus. Conversely, recession risks or financial shocks could dampen fuel demand. Additionally, the seasonal recovery of air travel (jet fuel) and vehicle traffic in spring and summer will also influence the refined product market.
- Conclusion of Winter and Preparation for the Next Season: The outcomes of the current winter for the gas market will shape strategies for 2026. If Europe avoids energy shortages and significant gas reserves remain in storage, it will simplify the task of refilling for the next winter and may keep prices low. An important event will be the summer injection season of 2026: under the anticipated increases in global LNG supply (starting new projects in the U.S. and Qatar), Europe aims to reach 90% storage capacity by autumn once again. The market will assess whether this can be achieved without price spikes and without intense competition with Asian importers.
- Energy Transition and Company Investments: Monitoring will continue regarding how energy corporations shift capital between fossil and renewable sectors. In 2026, a decline in investments in oil production is expected amid low prices—especially among independent companies in North America and international majors emphasizing financial discipline. Simultaneously, growth is likely in investments for LNG projects (increased exports from North America and Africa) and in "green" energy. Any new governmental initiatives for decarbonization (e.g., tightening climate goals at upcoming climate summits) or, conversely, steps to support fossil fuel production will directly influence long-term demand and price expectations.
Overall, industry experts provide a cautiously positive forecast for consumers in 2026: the high availability of oil and gas should prevent sharp price increases. However, for producers, this means the need to adapt to a new reality—a period of lower margins and heightened attention to efficiency. Geopolitical factors remain a "wild card": unexpected events—be they breakthroughs in peace negotiations, major accidents at production sites, or new trade wars—can instantly shift the balance. Participants in the energy sector approach the new year with caution, building strategies capable of withstanding diverse scenarios.
