Global News on the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector as of January 26, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Refined Products. Analysis of Key Events and Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex for Investors and Market Participants.
As of January 26, 2026, the fuel and energy complex (FEC) is marked by a combination of new seasonal challenges and ongoing geopolitical tensions, amidst a relatively balanced situation in commodity markets. The cold weather in Europe is testing the energy system's capabilities, rapidly increasing demand for gas and putting pressure on fuel reserves. At the same time, the global oil market continues to grapple with an oversupply scenario, although specific risks and conflicts maintain a cautious approach among market participants. Peace negotiations in Ukraine provide faint hope for easing sanctions, yet the main restrictions remain in place. Meanwhile, investments in hydrocarbon production and the development of "green" energy remain at high levels, reflecting countries' commitment to ensuring energy security and accelerating the transition to clean energy. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors at this time.
Global Oil Market: Oversupply and Cautious Demand Pressure Prices
Global oil prices at the end of January remain under moderate downward pressure despite recent short-term spikes. The benchmark Brent blend is trading around $64–67 per barrel, and the American WTI is approximately $59–61, which is about 15% lower than levels a year ago. Thus, the market maintains relative stability after the post-crisis normalization of prices, although the balance remains fragile. Key factors influencing the oil market include:
- OPEC+ Policy: The oil alliance has paused its production increase for the first time after a prolonged period of raising output. At the OPEC+ meeting at the end of 2025, member countries decided to keep total production at current levels, cancelling a scheduled increase in quotas for the first quarter of 2026. This decision was made in light of signs of oil surplus in the market and led to a slight price increase at the beginning of the year. However, OPEC+'s share in global supplies remains below previous highs, as the alliance did not fully recover lost positions during the quota increase.
- Non-OPEC Production Growth: Alongside OPEC+ actions, other producers continue to increase supply. Independent companies in the U.S. have raised shale production to a record ~13 mb/d, close to historical highs. New projects in Latin America (Brazil, Guyana) and recovery in Canadian production significantly contribute to global supply growth. As a result, global oil production is outpacing demand, forming excess inventories and applying pressure on oil and refined product prices.
- Global Demand: Oil consumption is increasing much slower than in previous years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand growth in 2026 is estimated at around +0.9 mb/d (less than +1%), comparable to last year's figure and significantly lower than the rates of 2023. OPEC forecasts similar dynamics (around +1.3 mb/d). Reasons for the restrained growth include slowing global economic growth (especially reduced GDP rates in China and other major consumers) and energy-saving measures. High prices in previous years stimulated efficiency improvements and a shift to alternative sources, further limiting market appetites.
- Geopolitics and Finance: Geopolitical events continue to create a backdrop for price fluctuations, but their impact is mitigated by oversupply. This winter, tensions escalated in the Middle East; threats of military conflict surrounding Iran led to a brief price surge, while sudden political changes in Venezuela in early January caused a temporary suspension of exports from that country. Additionally, disruptions were noted in certain regions—such as drone attacks and technical issues that reduced output in Kazakhstan. However, the global market's reaction to these events has been relatively calm: excess reserves and spare capacity from other producers compensated for localized losses. An additional stabilizing factor is the expectation of easing monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe in the event of a further economic slowdown—this supports investor optimism and reduces the pressure of a strong dollar on commodities. Meanwhile, the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West remains unresolved: despite cautious optimism regarding possible peace resolutions in Ukraine, the existing restrictions on Russian oil and refined products persist. Russian Urals oil continues to be sold at a significant discount (around ~$40 per barrel, well below Brent quotes), reflecting export limitations and price caps. Overall, the combination of factors keeps oil prices within a narrow range, and the market requires a clear catalyst—either substantial production cuts or a significant demand increase—to break out of this equilibrium.
European Gas Market: Cold Weather Reduces Reserves and Causes Price Volatility
In the gas sector, the start of 2026 has marked a sharp change in sentiment—from fuel abundance to grappling with the consequences of cold weather. The European Union entered winter with unprecedentedly high gas reserves in underground storage (UGS): at the beginning of January, they were filled to over 90%, allowing exchange prices to drop to their lowest levels in the past year (TTF hub gas prices briefly fell to ~$330 per 1,000 m3, or around €28 per MWh). However, prolonged cold weather affecting much of Europe in January sharply increased energy demand. Gas withdrawals from storage reached record levels—by January 21, reserves had dropped to approximately 47% of capacity, significantly lower than average levels for previous years on this date. Gas prices surged: since the beginning of the month, TTF prices have jumped approximately 30%, rising from ~$34 (29€) to ~$45 (≈39€) per MWh. This is the steepest January rise in the last five years, driven by a combination of weather factors and global conditions. Nevertheless, even with this spike, European prices remain several times lower than peak values from the crisis winter of 2021–2022, and high reserves in storage currently protect the region from shortages. The main trends influencing the gas market include:
- Minimizing Russian Imports: EU countries have virtually ceased imports of Russian pipeline gas over the past year. Russia's share in European imports has dropped to 10–15% (down from over 40% before 2022). The missing volumes are successfully replaced by alternative channels: LNG imports from the U.S., Qatar, Africa, and the Middle East are operating at full capacity. The commissioning of new regasification terminals (in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and other countries) has expanded infrastructure capabilities for receiving LNG. As a result, Europe has diversified sources and managed to accumulate a large gas reserve ahead of winter without dependence on Gazprom.
- U.S.–EU LNG Agreement: A large long-term deal between Washington and Brussels for U.S. LNG supplies worth up to $750 billion in 2026–2028 is still being implemented slowly. This is largely due to market conditions: against the backdrop of low prices last autumn, European importers purchased smaller volumes than those anticipated in the agreements. For instance, between September and December 2025, gas supplies from the U.S. to the EU were estimated at around $29.6 billion, significantly lagging behind declared annual targets. Cheap gas in the spot market reduced the economic incentive to choose fixed long-term volumes. Now, with prices recovering this winter, a revival of shipments under contracts can be expected—demand for U.S. LNG is rising again, and market participants are reassessing procurement strategies to ensure UGS are filled for the next heating season.
- Weather Factors: The current situation has demonstrated that even record reserves are insufficient under extreme weather conditions. Unusually cold weather across multiple regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Europe, North America, parts of Asia) has led to a synchronous increase in gas demand, rapidly depleting reserves. If frigid conditions persist, further price spikes may occur—traders have already shifted to bullish sentiments, actively purchasing gas futures in anticipation of further price increases. Meanwhile, Europe's infrastructure is operating under heightened loads: gas transport operators have increased withdrawals from UGS, and LNG suppliers are hastily redirecting tankers to European terminals, despite stiff competition from Asian consumers. An additional factor is environmental constraints: strict CO2 emission standards limit internal gas production growth possibilities in several EU countries. This means that during prolonged cold snaps, Europe will have to rely on imports and existing reserves, which keeps market volatility high.
- Demand in Asia: Asian countries are also experiencing winter-driven increases in gas consumption, competing with Europe for LNG. China and India are actively ramping up LNG purchases to meet peak needs: northern provinces in China are experiencing heightened demand for heating, while India is purchasing additional gas supplies for electricity generation. At the same time, China continues to increase its own natural gas production (in 2025, national gas production grew by approximately 6%, reaching new record levels); however, this is not sufficient to fully satisfy domestic demand, so China remains the world's largest gas importer. India, for its part, is taking advantage of the situation on the sanctions market, increasing purchases of cheap Russian LNG alongside oil, strengthening its energy security and indirectly supporting global demand. Overall, the revival in Asian demand this winter exacerbates the pressure on the global gas market, but thanks to high European reserves and flexible supply routes, serious deficits have been avoided.
International Situation: Sanctions Standoff and New Risks for Energy
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly impact the global energy landscape. There is a fragile equilibrium in relations between Russia and the West: on one hand, cautious negotiations began at the end of 2025 to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which has fostered optimism regarding a potential partial lifting of sanctions. As a result, for example, the European Union has postponed the introduction of new strict measures (a new sanctions package) while awaiting diplomatic progress. Certain dialogue channels, such as discussions on grain deals and prisoner exchanges, are maintained, signaling a desire by both sides to avoid further escalation. On the other hand, there are currently no significant breakthroughs: major economic restrictions against the Russian fuel and energy complex remain in place, with Washington and Brussels emphasizing their readiness to intensify pressure if progress on the political track stagnates. Investors are factoring in these risks: any news regarding the progress of negotiations or potential new sanctions is immediately reflected in oil and gas contract prices, forcing the market to navigate between hopes for de-escalation and concerns over heightened confrontation.
In addition to the Russian-Western situation, other geopolitical events have emerged that could affect the energy landscape. In early January, a political crisis erupted in Venezuela: President Nicolás Maduro was ousted as a result of domestic unrest, with indirect U.S. support. This led to a temporary reduction in Venezuelan oil exports as infrastructure and supply chains became disorganized. Washington has urged international companies to invest in restoring Venezuela's oil industry, hoping for increased global supply from this country in the future; however, in the short term, the market faced another uncertainty factor. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East escalated: sharp rhetoric and threats exchanged between the U.S. and Iran (amidst disputes regarding Tehran's nuclear program) raised concerns regarding potential supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf region. While direct military conflict has been avoided, and production in Middle Eastern fields continues without significant disruptions, the risk premium in prices has slightly increased. Furthermore, instability persists in several African countries, capable of affecting energy resource production (for instance, domestic conflicts in Nigeria and Libya periodically reduce oil exports). Thus, the international situation at the beginning of 2026 is characterized by an increased level of uncertainty. So far, the global energy market is sufficiently "diluted" with excess reserves to absorb individual shocks; however, further escalation of conflicts or diplomatic failures could alter this balance and lead to new price spikes. Market participants are keeping a close eye on geopolitical news, aware that political decisions can swiftly reshape the energy landscape.
Asia: Rising Domestic Production in China and Steady Resource Imports in India
- China: The largest economy in Asia is steadily increasing domestic hydrocarbon production, setting new records. By the end of 2025, China’s oil production exceeded 4.3 mb/d, while annual gas production reached historical highs (growth of approximately +6% compared to the previous year). Beijing is actively investing in expanding refining capacities and boosting electricity generation, including building new thermal and renewable energy facilities to reduce reliance on imports. Simultaneously, the government is investing in exploration of new fields and technologies to enhance oil recovery, ensuring long-term energy security. Economic growth slowdown observed in China in 2025 has led to only moderate increases in domestic energy demand. Nevertheless, China remains the world's largest oil and gas importer, continuing to procure significant volumes of raw materials from abroad to meet its extensive needs.
- India: The second most populous country in the world is maintaining its course towards ensuring the economy has access to affordable energy resources, balancing external pressure and national interests. Despite U.S. calls to reduce cooperation with Russia and Western countries' imposed restrictions, Indian refineries continue to actively purchase Russian oil. In December 2025, oil supplies from Russia to India were estimated at over 1.2 mb/d (following record levels of ~1.77 mb/d in November, as Indian refineries rushed to secure cheap raw materials ahead of the onset of new sanctions). Thus, Russia has solidified its status as a key supplier to the Indian market, providing raw materials at a significant discount. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with President Vladimir Putin at the end of the year, reaffirming the commitment to a long-term energy partnership between the two countries. At the same time, India is looking to develop its own production: national programs for exploring deep-sea oil and gas fields are being implemented, and coal production for energy needs is increasing. However, internal production growth is not keeping pace with rising demand, so New Delhi will continue to rely on imports, leveraging beneficial opportunities in the global market (including purchasing cheap energy resources from sanctioned suppliers) to meet its economy’s needs.
- Southeast Asia: The countries in this region, whose economies require cheap electricity for industrial growth, continue to rely on traditional energy resources, primarily coal. Despite global environmental trends, coal generation in Southeast Asia expanded further in 2025. New coal-fired power plants are being commissioned in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and several other states to satisfy rising electricity demand. The governments of these countries note that the high demand for cheap and reliable energy does not yet allow for a complete shift away from coal, even in the presence of renewable energy development programs. At the same time, infrastructure is being modernized, and plans for "greening" energy in the future are discussed, but for the coming years, coal will remain a key element in the region's energy balance. In addition to coal, Southeast Asian countries are also increasing LNG imports to diversify energy sources (for example, Thailand and Bangladesh are actively constructing LNG terminals). Thus, the Asian continent combines rising domestic production with increased imports, remaining the main driver of global demand for traditional energy resources.
Renewable Energy: Record Global Investments and Integration into Energy Systems
The global energy transition continues to gather momentum, setting new benchmarks. By the end of 2025, the world had installed a record volume of renewable energy capacity—approximately 750 GW of new installations (across solar, wind, and other "green" generation sources). Investments in clean energy reached a historical maximum, exceeding $2 trillion for the year, evidencing sustained interest from governments and businesses in this sector. New solar power plants (SPPs) and wind farms (WPPs) are securing an increasingly significant share of electricity generation in different countries. For instance, preliminary data indicates that in 2025, total generation from solar and wind in the European Union surpassed electricity generation from coal-fired power plants for the first time, solidifying a shift that began after the crises of 2022–2023. Similar trends are seen in other regions: in the U.S., renewables accounted for over 30% of electricity generation in early 2025, while China set another record for annual new renewable energy capacity installations. At the same time, the mass deployment of renewable energy presents several practical challenges for energy systems, as demonstrated over the past year. Key features of the current stage of the energy transition include:
- The Need for Reserves and Hybrid Solutions: Despite the rapid growth of the share of renewable energy, traditional sources—coal, gas, as well as nuclear energy—remain essential elements of the energy balance to ensure stability. According to experts, global energy consumption in 2025 was still approximately 80% covered by fossil fuels. The issue of the variability of renewable sources (when the sun doesn’t shine at night and the wind drops) forces countries to maintain reserve capacities. During peak loads or adverse weather conditions, energy systems still rely on gas and even coal power plants to prevent outages. Last winter, several European countries temporarily increased generation at coal-fired power plants during times when wind energy was insufficient, emphasizing the role of “classic” stations as a buffer. To enhance reliability, many countries are investing in energy storage systems—industrial batteries, pumped storage plants—and are developing intelligent networks capable of flexibly managing loads. All these measures aim to increase the resilience of energy supply as the share of renewable sources grows.
- Regional Differences: The leaders in the uptake of renewable technologies continue to be developed Western countries and China. The EU and the U.S. have adopted extensive stimulus programs: subsidies and tax incentives for the accelerated construction of renewables and localization of equipment production (for example, the U.S. IRA legislation and European climate financing initiatives). At the same time, Western countries do not abandon insurance mechanisms—strategic reserves of oil and gas continue to be maintained for use in emergencies. China is pursuing its path, combining the development of renewable energy with the enhancement of traditional generation capacity: alongside thousands of megawatts of solar panels and wind turbines, Beijing is constructing new hydro and nuclear power plants. This approach allows China to balance its energy system and meet growing demand without relying solely on variable sources. In developing countries, the pace of transition is more cautious: limited investment capacities and the need for cheap energy compel them to rely on fossil fuels for longer, although initial large renewable projects are appearing with the support of international organizations.
- Impact on the Electricity Market: The rapid growth of electricity generation from renewables is already changing market structures. During certain hours when solar and wind output is maximized, excess electricity is observed, leading to wholesale price drops to negative values. Such episodes were recorded in 2025 in Europe (for instance, in Germany during windy spring days) and in some provinces of China. Cheap or even "free" energy during peak times encourages consumers and businesses to shift to flexible consumption schedules, prompting operators to develop storage infrastructure (batteries, hydrogen technologies) to preserve excess energy. Furthermore, in pursuit of gradual decarbonization of the economy, the market for carbon quotas and taxes is expanding, encouraging companies to reduce emissions and invest in clean technologies. In general, the outcomes of last year confirm the durability of the energy transition trend: the share of renewable sources in global energy supply is steadily increasing. Experts forecast that as early as 2026-2027, total generation from renewables could surpass electricity production from coal at the global level for the first time. However, in the coming years, there remains a need to maintain a balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources so that the energy systems operate reliably under any scenario.
Coal Market: Stable Demand and Gradual "Greening" Efforts
Despite efforts to reduce emissions, coal demonstrated resilience in demand in 2025, particularly in Asia. Global coal consumption reached record levels—around 8.8 billion tons for the year, which is ~0.5% more than in 2024. This dynamic reflects a complex balance between developed countries, which are reducing coal usage, and developing economies, which are increasing coal consumption to support growth. The primary demand increase originated from the Asian region, while consumption declined in Europe and North America. The current situation in the coal market is characterized by the following points:
- China and India: Two largest developing economies continue to actively use coal for electricity generation and steel production. In China, despite the closure of some outdated coal mines and declared goals to peak emissions by the end of the decade, new modern coal-fired power plants are being constructed—total capacity of launched or under-construction units exceeds 50 GW. India is also rapidly expanding coal generation, seeking to satisfy the growing energy demand of its industry and population. Governments of both countries emphasize that, in the coming years, coal will remain a crucial energy source for their economies, even as programs for renewable energy development and enhancing coal power plant efficiency (such as emission cleaning technologies) are implemented.
- Exporters and Prices: Key global coal suppliers—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—maintained high levels of production and exports in 2025 to meet Asian buyers' demand. After a dramatic price increase during 2022-2023, the global coal market has stabilized: spot prices for thermal coal (Newcastle benchmark) remained in the $120-140 per ton range, significantly below peak levels from two years ago but still ensuring profitability for mining and trading. Coal stocks at terminals among major importers (in China, India, Japan) are at comfortable levels, preventing panic price spikes even during temporary disruptions. For example, the rainy season in Indonesia or logistic issues in Australia no longer lead to frantic price surges, as was the case during the crisis, thanks to established reserves and diversified supply routes.
- Policies of Developed Countries: In the U.S., EU countries, and the UK, the transition away from coal generation continues. In 2025, the share of coal in electricity production in the West dropped at double-digit rates—as old power plants are rapidly being decommissioned, new projects are blocked by environmental regulations and economic infeasibility (renewable energy and gas are often cheaper). The European Commission and governments are implementing increasingly stringent restrictions on CO2 emissions, making the maintenance of coal capacity expensive. Consequently, coal consumption in Europe has fallen to its lowest levels in decades. In the U.S., a similar trend is occurring: several states have announced plans for the complete closure of coal-fired power plants by the 2030s. However, the global effect of these measures is mitigated by growth in Asia—diminished demand in the West is compensated by increased coal burning in developing countries. Thus, global coal consumption remains close to record levels, although first steps toward its long-term reduction are evident. In the future, as renewables become cheaper and energy storage systems are perfected, the global economy's reliance on coal is expected to diminish, but the transition period will extend over several years.
Russian Oil Products Market: Extension of Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
At the beginning of 2026, the internal market for oil products in Russia remains relatively stable, achieved through government intervention in the second half of last year. After a spike in gasoline and diesel prices last summer, authorities implemented a series of urgent measures that are still in effect. These steps have allowed the internal market to be saturated with fuel, lower wholesale prices, and prevent shortages during the high-demand season. Key measures and their developments include:
- Export Restrictions on Fuel: The government has extended the restrictions (and quotas) on exporting gasoline and diesel fuel, introduced in the autumn of 2025, indefinitely until the market stabilizes. Most oil companies remain banned from exporting motor fuel abroad, except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements and contracts for allied countries. As a result, significant volumes of gasoline and diesel have been redirected to the domestic market, increasing supply at gas stations and wholesale bases. Consequently, wholesale fuel prices, which peaked in September, are now declining and remain significantly below those maximum levels.
- Adjustment of the Dampening Mechanism: Starting October 1, 2025, the formula for calculating the fuel dampener (a compensation payment to oil companies for domestic fuel sales) was temporarily changed. For the period until Spring 2026, the government opted not to account for "deviation from the base price" when calculating the dampener for gasoline and diesel, effectively increasing payments to oil refineries. This measure has enhanced the economic incentives for refineries to supply the domestic market and contributed to lowering exchange prices. For instance, according to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, the wholesale price of AI-95 gasoline in mid-January 2026 is approximately 8-10% lower than the peak values from September 2025. Thus, financial mechanisms have proven effective: producers receive compensation for lost export profits, while consumers benefit from more stable filling station prices.
- Current Situation and Outlook: As of early 2026, the internal fuel market in Russia is in a balanced state. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel are either stable or are continuing to decline moderately. Fuel product stocks in distribution networks and reserves are sufficient to meet demand during the winter months, and significant supply disruptions are not observed. The government states that the situation is under control: production, export, and world market prices are being monitored in cooperation with companies. In the event of a sharp rise in world oil prices (which might provoke a new outflow of fuel for export), authorities are prepared to swiftly implement additional restrictions or tariffs to keep domestic prices from soaring. At the same time, options for gradually lifting restrictions are being considered, contingent upon the market achieving final stabilization and saturation—potentially in the form of a phased lifting of the export ban for certain companies with a commitment to ensuring domestic sales. Meanwhile, the manual management regime remains in place. For investors and industry participants, these measures mean predictability in price conditions in the domestic market, albeit they limit companies' export opportunities. Overall, the combination of administrative restrictions and subsidies has allowed the autumn-winter period to pass without a fuel crisis, and Russia demonstrates readiness to continue applying non-market levers to maintain stability in gasoline and diesel prices domestically.
