Oil and Gas News and Energy on July 26, 2026: Brent Retracts to $97 After Breaking $100, TTF Gas Above €63/MWh, Cessation of CPC Operations, Gasoline Export Ban in Russia Until Year-End, Newcastle Coal, Electricity, and Renewables. Overview for Investors and Energy Market Participants
The global fuel and energy sector concludes the third decade of July in a state of heightened volatility. Prices for Brent crude oil, which broke the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in almost two months on Thursday, lost some ground on Friday, retracting back to $97. However, the raw materials sector still gained over 10% over the week. European gas at the TTF hub established itself above €63/MWh—the highest level since January 2023. Against this backdrop, the main corporate-regulatory news of the weekend was the decision by Russian authorities to extend the complete ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2026. Below is a detailed overview of key events in the oil and gas, coal, and power sectors for investors, fuel and oil companies, and energy market participants.
Key Highlights by Sunday Morning, July 26, 2026
- Oil: Brent reached a two-month peak around $102 on Thursday and closed above $100; however, it corrected by about 4% to $97 per barrel on Friday. WTI gave back about half of a six percent gain and is trading near $88–89.
- Dynamics: Over the month, Brent gained approximately 30%, and over the year—more than 40%. The weekly outcome showed a plus of 10–12%.
- Gas: TTF futures rose above €63/MWh—a record since January 2023; this reflects a growth of over 45% since the beginning of July, and nearly doubles year-on-year.
- Logistics: Shipments from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Novorossiysk have been halted, and Kazakhstan has reduced production.
- Russia: The gasoline export ban has been extended until the year-end; diesel restrictions will be lifted gradually as the market recovers.
- Coal: Newcastle remains around $130 per ton amid restrained demand from India.
- Power Sector: The contract between OpenAI and Georgia Power for 3.2 GW cements data centers as a new driver for electricity demand.
Oil Market: Risk Premium Taken, But Not Held
The oil market has been trading based on military reports rather than the balance of supply and demand for the fifth consecutive week. The break over $100 for Brent came after Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea—a situation that expanded risk zones beyond the Strait of Hormuz and called alternative routes for Saudi exports into question. The Friday correction can be explained quite simply: oil continues to transit Middle Eastern routes, some tankers are sailing with their transponders turned off, and technical indicators indicating overbought conditions necessitated a pause after the fastest monthly rally since 2022.
Factors Supporting Prices
- Restricted navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about one-fifth of maritime oil trade.
- Threat to Red Sea ports: Riyadh warned on Saturday about potential dangers near Yanbu—a terminal capable of shipping millions of barrels per day.
- Suspension of Kazakhstan's export via the CPC, removing over 1% from the global supply.
- Increased freight and insurance rates, which are being passed along to refinery purchase prices.
- Extended shipping routes: Asian buyers are exploring the transport of Saudi oil via the Suez Canal and around Africa.
Factors Restraining Growth
- The negotiation track between the U.S. and Iran has not formally broken; both sides confirm ongoing contact facilitated by Oman and Pakistan.
- China's interest in de-escalation: disruptions in the Persian Gulf are hitting the world's largest oil importer.
- Spare capacities within OPEC+ and the ongoing recovery of quotas.
Geopolitics: Dispute over Navigation Rules in the Strait of Hormuz
The key narrative over the weekend is not military, but legal. Tehran has claimed that Washington is unilaterally attempting to open a new transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, bypassing Iranian procedures, and views this as a violation of the June memorandum of understanding. The U.S. insists that Iran does not control the Strait, while military sources confirm that shipping is maintained by escorting forces. Concurrently, the American side conducted the thirteenth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and threatened a "tough military response" to new attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. For the market, this signifies that the geopolitical risk premium in oil and gas prices will remain until a functioning transit mechanism is established, not merely until a formal ceasefire occurs.
OPEC+: Meeting on August 2 as the Main Scheduled Trigger
The alliance continues its stepwise production recovery: on July 5, seven countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed to an increase of 188,000 barrels per day for August. The next meeting is scheduled for August 2, and it will take place in a fundamentally different price reality than the previous one. The main challenge for OPEC+ today is not quotas, but that a significant portion of spare capacity is physically located in the Persian Gulf and relies on the same Strait of Hormuz. The UAE's exit from the alliance on May 1, 2026, has further narrowed the managed supply pool, while the methodology for assessing maximum capacities being developed will serve as the basis for the quotas for 2027—a separate source of internal disagreements.
Gas Market: TTF at Highs, Winter Risks for Europe Increase
European gas has become the second epicenter of the crisis. The TTF's rise of over 45% since the beginning of July is attributed to a combination of structural factors: a reduction in Qatari LNG supplies following damage to facilities in Ras Laffan, the reorientation of Atlantic cargoes to premium Asia, abnormal heat in Europe raising demand for electricity for air conditioning, and increased freight costs. The largest gas supplier in the region has warned that the EU is unlikely to reach its target of 80% fill rates for underground storage ahead of the heating season. The pace of injection is lagging behind the five-year average, establishing the winter of 2026–2027 as a major risk for European industry and energy, with the window for accelerating injections narrowing: seasonal demand growth starts by late September.
CPC and Kazakhstan: Logistics as a Bottleneck for Exports
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has suspended loading at its marine terminal near Novorossiysk following a series of drone attacks on tankers. Since July 21, Kazakhstan has halted the pumping of crude into the system; shipowners refuse to approach the offshore berthing facilities, and some tankers are awaiting anchorage. The Ministry of Energy of the Republic has confirmed a "controlled adjustment" of daily production to prevent tank farm overflows. The CPC accounts for over 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, linking the Tengiz and Kashagan fields developed by Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell to the Black Sea. For European refineries focused on the light low-sulfur grade CPC Blend, this means an urgent search for replacement shipments in an already tight market.
Russia: Gasoline Export Ban Extended Until End of 2026
The main decision of the past week for the Russian oil products market was announced on July 25: the complete ban on gasoline exports is extended until the end of the current year and applies to both producers and non-producers. Diesel restrictions are planned to be lifted gradually as the market recovers. The regime that was in place until July 31 has thus transitioned from a seasonal measure to a half-year one.
The context of the decision is a challenging summer for the industry:
- The volume of oil refining in June dropped to approximately 4.1 million barrels per day—the lowest in recent years—due to damage to refineries;
- attacks on plants continue: at the end of July, facilities in Ulyanovsk region were affected, previously—those in Omsk and Saratov;
- obligatory exchange sales of 'Euro-5' gasoline have been reduced from 15% to 10% for the period until September 30;
- import duties have been set to zero, and imports of oil products are increasing;
- marine shipments of oil products in June hit their historical low.
Relevant authorities report gradual improvements in fuel supply across several regions and a transition to a "targeted" mode of managing shortages. Priorities remain unchanged: harvesting, northern supply operations, and provision to Siberian regions. For oil companies, the extension of the embargo means predictable but prolonged compression of export margins and the need to maintain high internal sales loads until the end of the year.
Coal: A Quiet Haven with Limited Upside
The coal market remains a beneficiary of the LNG shortage but without a frenzy. Australian thermal coal Newcastle 6000 kcal is trading around $130 per ton—close to the lows since early March: restrained purchases from India, which has increased its own production and stockpiles, offset growing demand in Northeast Asia. Japan remains a leader in coal generation growth amid a reduction in gas use, while South Korea has sharply increased imports. Industry estimates suggest additional demand in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 may reach about 70 million tons, escalating to 90 million. Notably, major mining companies are not sanctioning new projects: the market perceives the surge as cyclical rather than structural.
Power Sector and Renewables: Demand Rising Faster Than Capacity Supply
The energy shock has not slowed but accelerated the transition to renewables. Global electricity demand is projected to rise by 3.6% in 2026 and by another 3.8% in 2027; renewable generation will surpass coal generation globally for the first time in history, with the share of renewables in global output moving from 33% to 37%. The drivers remain constant: industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers.
The latter factor has ceased to be an abstraction. This week, OpenAI announced a 25-year contract with Georgia Power for the supply of up to 3.2 GW for a data center in Georgia, with capacity coming online between 2028–2032, involving investments from $20 billion and an option for managed load reduction down to 1 GW. This is one of the largest single capacity commitments in American technological infrastructure history, illustrating why electricity is becoming a standalone asset class on par with oil and gas.
What This Means for Investors and Energy Market Participants
- Hedging is essential. Movements of 4–7% per session make unhedged positions in oil, gas, and petroleum products a source of unacceptable risk.
- Refining margins under pressure from both sides. Expensive raw materials amid administrative export restrictions and retail prices compress the crack spreads for refineries.
- Logistics matter more than geology. The Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have demonstrated that the price of a barrel is determined by the accessibility of bottlenecks.
- Premium for predictability. Coal, nuclear, and assets with long contract horizons are being repriced upwards.
- Winter risk in Europe remains. Delays in the filling of gas storage facilities create potential for new TTF spikes in the fourth quarter.
The upcoming week's calendar sets four key focal points: the OPEC+ meeting on August 2, statistics on the filling of European storage facilities, the progress of negotiations on navigation regimes in the Hormuz, and the quarterly reporting block of the largest oil and gas companies. Each of these events could shift prices by $5–10 per barrel within a single session. The fundamental scenario for oil, gas, and energy in the coming months indicates sustained elevated volatility at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.
