Global News on the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of Wednesday, December 17, 2025. Oil, gas, electricity, renewable energy, coal, refineries, key events, and trends in the global energy sector for investors and market participants.
The current events in the fuel and energy sector on December 17, 2025, are attracting the attention of investors, market participants, and major fuel companies due to their contradictions. The decline in oil prices to multi-year lows occurs simultaneously with a sharp increase in gas prices in the United States, creating a mixed picture on global energy markets. The global oil market is under pressure from oversupply and slowing demand, with Brent prices holding around $60 per barrel (the lowest in four years), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. At the same time, the gas sector shows divergent trends: in Europe, prices remain moderate due to high stocks, while in America, wholesale gas prices are hitting records, provoking a local energy crisis. Concurrently, amid ongoing sanctions against Russia, its oil and gas revenues are sharply decreasing, prompting the authorities to continue measures to support the domestic fuel market. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – renewable energy is reaching record levels in many countries, although states are not yet abandoning traditional resources to ensure the reliability of energy systems. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Pressure Prices
Global oil prices continued to decline under the influence of fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while American WTI is near $56. Current levels are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting a continuing market correction after the price peaks of previous years. Several factors are influencing price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance is generally increasing market supply despite falling prices. Key participants in the agreement have partially restored production volumes: in December 2025, the total quota has risen by about 137,000 barrels per day (under a previously announced plan). Although OPEC+ is taking a pause for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal demand decrease, the current level of production remains high.
- Increased Supply Outside OPEC: In addition to OPEC countries, other producers have also ramped up production. In the US, oil production reached record levels (around 13 million bbl/day), with significant growth in exports from Latin American and African countries. Collectively, this adds more oil to the market and strengthens the oversupply trend.
- Slowing Demand Growth: The pace of global oil consumption growth has slowed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase in demand in 2025 of less than 1 million bbl/day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023), while OPEC estimates are around +1.3 million b/d. Reasons include weakening economic activity in various countries, increased energy efficiency, and relatively high prices in previous years that encouraged energy conservation. Additionally, moderate industrial growth in China limits the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Expectations: The market continues to be influenced by uncertainties in international relations. On one hand, ongoing sanctions against Russia and relative instability in the Middle East could support prices; however, the overall oversupply neutralizes this effect. On the other hand, occasional signals of possible dialogue (for example, discussions in the US regarding plans to reintegrate Russia into the world economy after resolving conflicts) somewhat reduce the geopolitical "premium" in oil quotes. As a result, prices fluctuate within a narrow range without sharp jumps, lacking momentum for either a new rally or a collapse.
The combined impact of these factors creates a situation where supply exceeds demand, keeping the oil market in a state of surplus. Exchange prices persistently remain significantly below previous years’ levels. A number of analysts believe that if current trends continue, the average price of Brent in 2026 could drop to around $50 per barrel.
Gas Market: European Stability and Price Surge in the US
The gas market is experiencing divergent trends. Europe and Asia are entering winter relatively confidently, while North America is experiencing unprecedented price increases for fuel. The situation in the regions can be summarized as follows:
- Europe: EU countries entered the winter season with high gas reserves. Underground storage facilities were filled to approximately 75% of total capacity at the beginning of December (compared to around 85% a year ago). Thanks to this buffer and a steady influx of LNG, exchange prices remain low: quotes at the TTF hub fell below €30/MWh (≈$320 per thousand cubic meters). This environment is favorable for European industries and electricity generation on the brink of peak winter demand.
- US: The American gas market, in contrast, is experiencing a price shock. Wholesale prices at the Henry Hub exceeded $5.3 per million BTU (≈$180 per thousand cubic meters) – over 70% higher than a year ago. This is due to record LNG exports: significant volumes of US LNG are leaving for overseas, provoking shortages in the domestic market and rising tariffs for power plants and households. Underinvestment in gas infrastructure has exacerbated the problem of separating domestic and external markets. As a result, several energy companies were forced to increase coal usage to contain costs – expensive gas temporarily raised the share of coal generation in the US.
- Asia: Prices for gas in key Asian markets remain relatively stable. Importers in the region are secured with long-term contracts, and a mild start to winter has not created frantic demand. In China and India, gas consumption growth is currently moderate due to restrained economic growth, so competition with Europe for LNG shipments has not escalated. However, analysts warn that with a sharp drop in temperatures or acceleration in China's economy, the balance could shift: increased demand in Asia could once again elevate global gas prices and intensify the competition for LNG between the East and the West.
Thus, the global gas market demonstrates a dual picture. Europe currently enjoys relatively low prices and comfortable reserves, while in North America, expensive gas has created local difficulties for energy supply. Market participants are closely monitoring weather and economic factors that could shift this balance in the coming months.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure and Cautious Signals for Dialogue
In the geopolitical arena, the confrontation surrounding Russia's energy resources remains. In late October, the European Union approved the 19th package of sanctions, further tightening restrictive measures. In particular, a complete ban was imposed on any financial and logistical services related to the purchase, transportation, or insurance of Russian oil for key Russian oil and gas companies – effectively closing the last loopholes for exporting raw materials to Europe. The introduction of the 20th package of EU sanctions is expected in early 2026, which is predicted to target new sectors (including the nuclear sector, steel, oil refining, and fertilizers), further complicating trade operations with Russia.
At the same time, there have been initial hints of a potential compromise on the diplomatic horizon. According to insiders, the US has recently communicated a series of proposals to European allies regarding the gradual reintegration of Russia into the world economy – of course, contingent on achieving peace and resolving the crisis. While these ideas remain unofficial and no sanctions relief has been introduced, the very fact of such discussions indicates a search for pathways toward dialogue in the long term. Currently, the sanctions regime remains strict, and energy resources from Russia continue to be sold at significant discounts to a limited number of buying countries. Markets are closely monitoring developments: the emergence of genuine peace initiatives could improve investor sentiment and soften sanctions rhetoric, whereas a lack of progress threatens new restrictions on the Russian energy sector.
Asia: India and China Between Import and Domestic Production
- India: In the face of Western sanctions, New Delhi has made it clear that it cannot sharply reduce imports of Russian oil and gas, as they are crucial for national energy security. Indian consumers have secured favorable conditions: Russian suppliers are offering Urals oil with significant discounts (estimated to be at least $5 to the price of Brent) to maintain their market share in India. As a result, India continues to purchase large quantities of Russian oil at preferential prices and is even increasing imports of oil products from Russia to meet growing demand. At the same time, the government is taking steps to reduce dependence on imports in the future. In August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for exploring deep-sea oil and gas fields. Under this program, the state company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and initial results look promising. This "deep-sea mission" aims to unlock new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its goal of energy independence.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also increasing energy resource purchases while ramping up domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil (Beijing has not joined the sanctions and is taking the opportunity to purchase raw materials at reduced prices). Analysts estimate that in 2025, China’s total oil imports will increase by about 3% compared to the previous year, while gas imports are expected to decrease by ~6% due to rising domestic production and moderate demand. Simultaneously, Beijing is investing significant funds in the development of national oil and gas extraction: in 2025, oil production in China rose by ~1.7%, and gas production increased by over 6%. The increase in domestic output helps partially meet the needs of the economy but does not eliminate the need for imports. Given the sheer scale of consumption, China's dependence on external supplies remains high: it is expected that in the coming years, the country will import at least 70% of the oil it uses and approximately 40% of its gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers – India and China – will continue to play a key role in global raw material markets, combining import security strategies with domestic resource development.
Energy Transition: Renewables Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly accelerating. Many countries are reporting record electricity generation from renewable sources. In Europe, by the end of 2024, total generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed electricity production from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time. This trend has continued into 2025: thanks to new capacity additions, the share of "green" electricity in the EU is steadily rising, while the share of coal in the energy balance is once again declining (after a temporary rise during the 2022–2023 crisis). In the US, renewable energy has also reached historic levels – more than 30% of total generation now comes from renewables, and the total volume of electricity produced from wind and solar in 2025 exceeded generation from coal plants for the first time. China, the leader in installed "green" capacity, is launching tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines annually, consistently breaking its own generation records. Companies and investors worldwide are funneling enormous sums into clean energy development: the IEA estimates that total investments in the global energy sector surpassed $3 trillion in 2025, with over half of this funding directed towards renewable projects, grid upgrades, and energy storage systems. In line with this trend, the European Union has set a new target – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, establishing an extremely ambitious pace for phasing out fossil fuels in favor of low-carbon technologies.
Nevertheless, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to ensure stability. The growing share of solar and wind creates challenges for network balancing during times when renewables are unavailable (at night or during calm weather). To cover peak demand and ensure backup capacity, gas and even coal-fired power plants are sometimes brought back online. For example, in certain European countries, last winter saw a temporary increase in output from coal-fired plants during calm, cold weather – despite environmental costs. Similarly, in the fall of 2025, rising gas prices in the US forced energy producers to temporarily ramp up coal generation. To enhance the reliability of energy supplies, many countries' governments are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing load. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewables will emerge as the dominant source of global electricity generation, finally surpassing coal. However, for the next few years, maintaining support for traditional power plants remains essential as a safeguard against supply disruptions. In other words, the global energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: A Stable Market Amid Sustained High Demand
The rapid development of renewable energy has not diminished the key role of the coal industry. The global coal market remains a large and important segment of the energy balance. The demand for coal remains consistently high, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intensive consumption of this fuel. China – the world's largest coal consumer and producer – is burning coal at nearly record rates in 2025. Each year, Chinese mines extract more than 4 billion tons of coal, meeting most of the internal demand; however, this volume is barely sufficient during peak load periods (for example, during summer heat with widespread air conditioning use). India, having substantial coal reserves, is also increasing its coal consumption: more than 70% of the country's electricity is still generated from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside economic growth. In other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.), construction of new coal-fired power plants continues to meet the rising demand from households and industry.
Global supply has adapted to this sustained demand. Major exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa – have significantly ramped up production and shipment of thermal coal to external markets in recent years. This has allowed prices to remain relatively stable. After price spikes in 2022, thermal coal prices returned to a normal range and have fluctuated without sharp changes in recent months. The balance of supply and demand appears to be stable: consumers continue to obtain fuel, while producers enjoy steady sales at favorable prices. Although many countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this resource remains essential for providing energy to billions of people. Experts estimate that over the next 5–10 years, coal generation – particularly in Asia – will retain a significant role, despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices moderate, and the industry continues to be a pillar of the world's energy framework.
Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment of Russia, urgent steps have been taken in the last quarter to normalize the price situation. As early as August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline in the country reached new record highs, exceeding 2023 levels. The reasons included a spike in summer demand (tourism season and harvest campaign) and limited fuel supply due to unscheduled refinery repairs and logistical disruptions. The government was forced to increase market regulation, swiftly implementing a range of measures to cool prices:
- Export Ban on Fuel: A complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel was implemented in September and then extended until the end of 2025. This measure applies to all producers (including major oil companies) and aims to direct additional volumes to the domestic market.
- Distribution Control: Authorities tightened monitoring of fuel shipments within the country. Refineries were instructed to prioritize supply to the domestic market and prevent speculative resale between suppliers. Concurrently, efforts are being made to develop direct contracts between refineries and fuel companies (retail gas station networks) to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries from the sales chain and prevent speculative price increases.
- Industry Subsidization: Stimulus payments have been maintained for fuel producers. The budget compensates oil companies for part of lost income when supplying the domestic market (a damping mechanism), which motivates them to direct sufficient volumes of petroleum products to gas stations within the country, despite lower profitability compared to exports.
The combination of these measures is already yielding results – in the fall, the fuel crisis has been largely contained. Despite record exchange prices for gasoline, retail prices at gas stations have increased much more slowly (around 5% since the beginning of the year, approximately corresponding to overall inflation). A shortage at gas stations has been avoided; the network is adequately supplied with necessary resources. The government, for its part, is prepared to further extend export restrictions if needed (considering, in particular, the extension of the gasoline and diesel export ban until February 2026) and to promptly mobilize fuel reserves to stabilize the market. Monitoring of the situation is maintained at the highest level – relevant agencies and the Deputy Prime Minister supervise the issue, assuring that all efforts will be made to ensure stable fuel supply for the domestic market and maintain reasonable prices for consumers.
