Key topics for Monday, August 10, 2026:
- Record $510 billion for the half-year—the venture market is rewriting historical highs, but capital is concentrating in a narrow circle of mega-deals.
- Energy for AI—a new megatrend—billion-dollar rounds for Valar Atomics and Base Power show that "electricity for data centers" has become a standalone investment class.
- The IPO parade continues—this week, Robinhood Ventures is expected to list, while Moonshot AI prepares for a placement in Hong Kong of around $3 billion.
- Record exits—in the second quarter, 32 companies went public with a valuation of over $1 billion, while another 24 were acquired for a total of $113 billion.
- Investor selectivity is increasing—money is flowing into projects with technological barriers and clear economics, rather than "wrappers" over others' models.
- Russia and the CIS—the local market expects growth of 10-15% by the end of the year, and the "Venture Landscape" forum will take place in Moscow on August 13.
Record Half-Year: $510 Billion and Unprecedented Concentration of Capital
The first half of 2026 has been the best in the history of the venture industry. According to analysts, startups worldwide raised $510 billion: $305 billion in the first quarter and another $205 billion in the second—making it the second-largest quarter on record. More than 70% of global funding in the second quarter went to AI companies, compared to approximately 50% a year earlier.
Moreover, the market is demonstrating extreme concentration: OpenAI and Anthropic accounted for a total of $217 billion, or 43% of all venture dollars for the half-year, while Anthropic surpassed SpaceX in the ranking of the world's most valuable private companies after a giant round in the second quarter. July confirmed the trend—approximately $65 billion in global investments, double the amount from a year earlier. For venture funds, this means a dual reality: while overall figures are record-breaking, the number of deals is growing much more slowly, and competition for quality projects outside the "magnetic field" of mega-rounds is intensifying.
Energy for AI: Nuclear Reactors and Batteries Attracting Billions
The main investment theme in recent days has been the energy infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The deficit of electricity for data centers has transformed from an engineering problem into a standalone venture sector with billion-dollar checks.
- Valar Atomics—a startup in the field of small nuclear reactors raised $1 billion in a Series B round led by Sequoia Capital, supplemented by a $200 million credit line from a syndicate led by JPMorgan. The company has already demonstrated a reactor powering an NVIDIA AI supercomputer and is building a "waterless" energy plant with a capacity of 30 MW for computing.
- Base Power—a Texas developer of home energy storage closed a Series D round at $1 billion with a valuation of $13 billion, with participation from Ribbit Capital, Valor Equity, and a strategic unit of JPMorgan.
- Joulent—a Houston-based company raised $1.75 billion in strategic funding for energy infrastructure for compute-intensive industries.
It is notable that in these deals, alongside traditional venture funds, banks, sovereign funds, and corporations are participating. For investors, the "picks and shovels" of the AI era—chips, cooling, electricity generation, and storage—are becoming a way to bet on industry growth without overpaying for the valuations of AI laboratories themselves.
AI Infrastructure and Agency Platforms: Where Big Checks Are Going
In addition to energy, capital continues to flow into the infrastructure layer of artificial intelligence. Fireworks AI, which helps corporations convert general models into specialized systems, raised $1.5 billion in a Series D round. Together AI closed a Series C round at $800 million led by Aramco Ventures with participation from Nvidia and General Catalyst. Safe Superintelligence, led by Ilya Sutskever, received about $5 billion with support from Nvidia, while Travis Kalanick's startup Atoms in the field of "physical AI" received $1.7 billion from Andreessen Horowitz.
Another notable cluster is agency platforms and their security. HappyRobot is attracting tens of millions for the automation of multi-step business processes, Convex closed a Series B round at $57 million for databases for "AI-written" code, while Zenity secured $125 million for the protection of corporate AI agents. London-based OLIX Computing with photonic chips for inference raised $312 million at a valuation of $3.3 billion, confirming that Europe is capable of cultivating deep-tech champions.
IPO Conveyor: From Robinhood Fund to Moonshot AI
The primary markets are experiencing the best period in several years. More than a hundred IPOs have been conducted since the beginning of the year, and the volume of funds raised by the end of May exceeded $34 billion—164% more than a year earlier. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with a valuation of over $1 billion—a historical record.
The coming week promises several landmark events:
- Robinhood Ventures—a fund providing retail investors access to non-public companies, including a portfolio linked with Y Combinator, will go public on the NYSE on August 13 under the ticker RVII with support from Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.
- Moonshot AI—the Chinese developer of Kimi models is preparing a confidential IPO application in Hong Kong aiming to raise around $3 billion.
- Anthropic—the company has reportedly filed confidential documents for placement after reaching a valuation of $965 billion.
- SpaceX—a possible listing in the second half of 2026 is being discussed, with a potential valuation of up to $1.5 trillion, considering that around 70% of revenues are already generated by Starlink.
For venture funds, the open exit window is a critically important signal: in the second quarter, 24 portfolio companies were sold to strategists for prices starting from $1 billion, totaling $113 billion. The return of capital to partners fuels a new fundraising cycle.
Selectivity as the New Norm: What Investors Require
Behind the facade of record numbers lies a tightening of selection. Rounds exceeding $100 million account for nearly four-fifths of all AI funding, while early-stage companies face more demanding investors. Funds are increasingly requiring:
- proven revenue and paid pilots instead of product demonstrations;
- technological barriers—proprietary data, hardware solutions, regulatory approvals;
- clear unit economics considering the actual cost of computing;
- secured distribution channels that competitors cannot buy with money.
Universal chatbots and thin overlays on others' models have nearly lost access to capital. Vertical solutions for healthcare, logistics, finance, and industry—where AI solves costly and measurable client problems—are winning.
Industry Diversification: Not Only Artificial Intelligence
Although AI dominates the statistics, venture capital is expanding its reach. Function Health raised $450 million for preventive medicine, strengthening the healthtech segment. Defense technologies remain on the rise: Anduril is preparing for one of the most anticipated IPOs of the year amid record defense budgets. Quantum computing has gained a public benchmark following June's placement of Quantinuum, which raised $1.68 billion. In Europe, long-cycle energy storage, semiconductors, and industrial software are consistently raising rounds of tens of millions of dollars, confirming that deep technologies have become a full-fledged alternative to purely software bets.
Russia and the CIS: Bet on Recovery in the Second Half of the Year
The Russian venture market is experiencing the bottom of the cycle and is looking for a turnaround. After a 40% decline in the number of deals in 2025—to 102 transactions totaling about $159 million—market participants predict growth of 10-15% by the end of 2026, to approximately 17 billion rubles. The constraining factors remain the high key interest rate and the situation in the currency market; however, the expected easing of monetary policy by the end of the year could revive deals.
The drivers of recovery are private and state funds, while the activity of business angels and corporate venture is still limited. An important event of the week will be the fifth "Venture Landscape" forum, which will take place on August 13 in Moscow's Lomonosov cluster, where investors, development institutions, and tech entrepreneurs will discuss the market's state, approaches to valuing companies, and requirements for projects attracting funding.
Forecast for Investors: How to Operate in an Overheated Market
On Monday, August 10, 2026, the venture market welcomes a phase of record but uneven growth. The agenda for funds and private investors in the coming months is as follows. Firstly, energy infrastructure for AI is becoming a separate investment class, where venture capital, bank lending, and state interest converge—this segment is only beginning to shape valuations. Secondly, the open IPO window requires active portfolio management from fund managers: companies ready for public offerings are receiving premiums, while funds gain much-awaited liquidity. Thirdly, the concentration of capital in mega-rounds creates opportunities in early stages, where competition for deals is lower, and the discipline of founders is higher than at the peak of previous cycles.
The main risk remains the same—overheating of valuations in the upper segment of AI. However, record exits, tangible corporate revenue from AI companies, and the influx of institutional money distinguish the current upturn from the speculative bubbles of the past. The market rewards those who combine risk appetite with strict selection—and this formula will determine the winners of the 2026 venture cycle.
