Key points for venture investors:
- Nscale has filed an IPO prospectus with the NYSE; valuation target—up to $35 billion.
- Holtec Nuclear has postponed its offering of up to $900 million due to market conditions.
- OpenAI has pushed its IPO to 2027, with investors proposing a round at a valuation of $1.2 trillion; Anthropic is staying the course for a Nasdaq listing.
- Emulate is preparing a seed round of up to $700 million, while Euclyd has raised €200 million in a Series A round.
- Crux AI is securing a $22 billion loan secured by chips, and Bloom Energy has a $25 billion project financing deal.
- An Indian alliance of deep tech investors has committed to invest $3 billion, while CATL is launching a venture fund of $860 million.
Nscale: The key IPO test for AI infrastructure
The UK-based cloud provider Nscale submitted its IPO prospectus to the SEC on Friday and intends to trade on the NYSE under the ticker NSCL. The underwriters are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley. Revenue for the first half of 2026 rose to $140.6 million from $10.4 million a year earlier, while net losses widened to $1.02 billion. Remaining contractual commitments reach $56.4 billion, but more than half of the revenue is from a single customer. According to media reports, the company aims to raise up to $3 billion at a valuation of up to $35 billion—up from $14.6 billion in the March Series C round. Meanwhile, Nscale has arranged a convertible loan from Nvidia.
For venture funds, this is the first autumn indicator of how public investors will regard a capital-intensive model with contracted demand, high customer concentration, and reliance on a single GPU supplier.
Holtec and the IPO window: selectivity over euphoria
Holtec Nuclear, once considered the top IPO of September, has postponed its offering. The environment is unfriendly: X-energy trades about 37% below its April offering price, and Standard Nuclear is down 21%. The IPO window has not closed but has narrowed:
- This week, Bamboo Insurance ($665 million at a $3.3 billion valuation) and defense materials manufacturer Amaero ($53 million) are expected;
- Biotech Electra Therapeutics, which raised $350 million, is trading about 12% below its offering price;
- Motive has withdrawn its IPO application and received over $1.3 billion in growth financing from General Catalyst—private equity is substituting for the stock market;
- Revolut is considering dual listings in New York and London with a valuation of up to $200 billion.
"Pause in AI" and Fed rates: a double filter for valuations
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay calling for a coordinated slowdown in enhancing model capabilities. He received support from Sam Altman and other leaders of major tech companies. Anthropic is introducing independent safety auditors. The market reacted with a sell-off in semiconductors, but by the end of the week, the Nasdaq gained 0.7%, while the Dow lost 1.7%.
Industry analysts highlight the implications for venture investments: longer model release cycles, potential shifts in data center commitments, elongated exit timelines, and added pressure on LPs. Competition is shifting from "raw" performance to distribution, reliability, and cost—favoring larger players. At the same time, there are calls to regulate owners of over 5% of computational power similarly to systemically significant banks.
OpenAI and Anthropic: trillion-dollar valuations, different paths
Investors have offered OpenAI a round at a valuation of about $1.2 trillion—41% higher than March's $852 billion, when the company raised $122 billion. There are no formal negotiations, according to media reports; some proposals involve stock sales by employees. Annual revenue has exceeded $40 billion, with an IPO expected in 2027. Anthropic, valued at $965 billion in May, is still preparing its Nasdaq offering marketing for mid-October. Its listing will set the public multiplier for the entire AI sector.
Mega rounds and new unicorns: capital concentrates
- Temporal — $550 million Series E at a valuation of $12.55 billion; a platform for AI agents.
- Fab2 — $500 million Series A for mass production of compact chip factories.
- Suniva — $835 million in debt and equity for solar cell production in the US.
- Ridgeline — $250 million at a valuation of $1.45 billion; Cornelis Networks — $205 million for AI network solutions.
- Penelope Health — $100 million for automating doctors' administrative processes.
A week earlier, Cognition raised $2 billion at a valuation of $48 billion, and Boring Company raised $3 billion at $23 billion. Median rounds A and B remain moderate: the gap between category leaders and other startups is widening.
Debt over equity: chips and energy as collateral
Funding for AI infrastructure is increasingly shifting to the credit market. A consortium of ten banks is providing $22 billion secured by TPU and client contracts of Crux AI—a cloud project of Blackstone and Alphabet with $5 billion in equity. Bloom Energy has agreed with Brookfield on $25 billion in project financing for data center energy supply. Nvidia will invest $2 billion in Brookfield's $10 billion AI infrastructure fund. For venture funds, this means less dilution in portfolio companies, but higher sensitivity to interest rates.
M&A: signed does not mean closed
Deals remain a secondary liquidity channel, but closing times are lengthening. The acquisition of Hugging Face by Nvidia for $12.9 billion is not expected to close until the first half of 2027. Signed but not yet completed transactions include Visa—BioCatch ($2.4 billion), Analog Devices—Alif Semiconductor ($1.35 billion), Bending Spoons—Miro ($1.36 billion), and Dynatrace—Arize AI ($915 million). SoftBank has agreed to acquire the Robotics and AI Institute, with the deal undergoing review in the US. SPACs are returning: nuclear technology developer HGP is merging with Meshflow at a valuation of $1.2 billion.
Europe, Asia, and emerging markets
- United Kingdom: Emulate, founded in August by alumni from Google DeepMind, is discussing a seed round of up to $700 million at a valuation of about $3.7 billion; leading investors include Index Ventures and Lightspeed. ElevenLabs is preparing a Series E of over $500 million with possible participation from the Scaleup Europe Fund.
- Netherlands: Euclyd has raised €200 million in a Series A for inference chips; among the round's leaders is Samsung.
- India: The India Deep Tech Alliance has committed to invest $3 billion, with $250 million allocated in the first year.
- China: CATL is establishing a venture fund of $860 million for AI and robotics; the robotaxi division Hello has raised around $100 million.
- Latin America: Brazilian VOLL has secured $140 million from Warburg Pincus.
Implications for venture investors and funds
- Exits are shifting. The postponement of OpenAI's IPO and Holtec's pause extend the liquidity horizon—DPI planning needs to be reassessed.
- Nscale and Anthropic will set multiples. Their reception by the public market will define late-stage valuations for 2027.
- Regulatory risk has become an investment factor. Safety audits and potential computational restrictions need to be factored into due diligence.
- Capital structure is changing. Debt secured by chips and contracts reduces dilution but requires a sustainable unit economy at a 4% rate.
- Team premiums have reached their limits. Seed rounds in the hundreds of millions without a product raise the bar for the next round and the risk of a down round.
The venture market remains liquid, but it pays for proven demand, control over scarce resources, and capital discipline. These criteria will shape the news of startups and venture investments through the end of the third quarter.
