Top 7 Token Unlocks (December 15-21, 2025) and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

Analytical Overview of Major Token Unlocks for the Week of December 15–21, 2025. Impact on the Market, Risks for Investors, and Key Project Indicators.

In the upcoming week from December 15 to 21, 2025, several major projects are set to execute significant token unlocks, which may influence the entire cryptocurrency market. These include Aster, LayerZero, Arbitrum, Vana, Yooldo Games, STBL, and Merlin Chain. Below is an analysis of each case: when the unlock will occur, how many tokens will enter circulation (in absolute terms and as a percentage of total supply), what the current value of these tokens is, and the potential impact of the unlocks on price and liquidity. Such cryptocurrency analytics help assess risks and opportunities—especially relevant for those considering long-term investments in cryptocurrency.

For clarity, let’s compare the key metrics of all seven projects in the table below:

Aster (ASTER)

Aster is a decentralized derivatives exchange offering spot and perpetual trading of cryptocurrency and equity contracts with leverage up to 1001×. On Wednesday, December 17, 2025, Aster will unlock approximately 78.4 million ASTER (about 0.98% of the total token supply). At the current exchange rate, this is equivalent to ~75 million dollars—adding roughly 3% to the circulating supply of ASTER. Considering the project's market capitalization (around several billion dollars), this volume is relatively modest. However, if a significant portion of the unlocked coins hits the market immediately, some profit-taking by recipients and a drop in liquidity on exchanges may occur. Cryptocurrency investors should monitor the behavior of large holders: while the volume of the unlock is moderate, the Aster market is likely capable of absorbing it without prolonged price pressure.

LayerZero (ZRO)

LayerZero (ZRO) is a cross-chain protocol enabling secure data and value transmission between different blockchains. On Saturday, December 20, 2025, the project will unlock approximately 24.68 million ZRO (about 2.47% of total issuance), with a total value of ~37 million dollars. This represents about 10% of the current market capitalization of ZRO, indicating a substantial increase in circulating volume. Such an influx of tokens in a mid-cap project may lead to noticeable volatility: short-term holders may sell new coins, exerting downward pressure on price. However, the schedule for these unlocks was known in advance, and the market has partially priced this information into the tokens. Notably, LayerZero tokens are distributed among investors and the team on a schedule—if a significant portion of recipients continues to hold their coins or stakes them, the impact of the token unlock may be mitigated. Investors should closely observe the movement of these tokens (e.g., transfers to exchanges) in the days following December 20.

Arbitrum (ARB)

Arbitrum (ARB) is one of the leading Layer 2 solutions for Ethereum (based on optimistic rollup), designed to reduce fees and speed up transactions within the network. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, approximately 92.63 million ARB is expected to unlock—this is roughly 0.93% of the total volume of Arbitrum tokens, amounting to about 19.8 million dollars. This issue corresponds to only ~2% of the market capitalization of ARB, which is relatively small. Since its launch in 2023, Arbitrum has already distributed a significant portion of tokens through airdrops and gradual issuances to investors; the current stage involves a scheduled unlock for early investors and team members. Given the small proportion of new coins, the cryptocurrency forecast for a token issue of this level is moderate: the ARB market is likely to perceive this event calmly. The high liquidity and widespread availability of ARB on exchanges allow expectations that the cryptocurrency market will seamlessly absorb the additional supply. However, short-term speculative fluctuations are not excluded—as with any unlocks, market participants should exercise caution in the days surrounding December 16 and monitor the behavior of large ARB holders.

Vana (VANA)

Vana (VANA) is a Layer 1 blockchain focused on preserving user control over personal data and monetizing it (turning data into tokenized assets). According to the plan, on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the project will release VANA tokens with a total value of ~17.4 million dollars—this amounts to approximately 6.12 million VANA, equivalent to ~5.1% of total emissions. The new coins will account for about 20% of the current capitalization of VANA, indicating a significant increase in circulating tokens. Such a sharp increase in supply could exert considerable pressure on price, especially if holders of the unlocked tokens decide to liquidate them immediately. On the other hand, some of these tokens may be designated for ecosystem initiatives (e.g., community rewards or user incentives), which reduces the risk of a sudden market dump. Investors interested in Vana cryptocurrency are advised to prepare for increased volatility: a short-term price decrease may occur if demand from new buyers does not keep pace with the increase in supply. In such cases, it’s important to evaluate the fundamental indicators of the project—a sustained interest in Vana from users and partners can help the price recover after the initial supply shock.

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS)

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS) is a multichain Web3 gaming platform where users play games and earn tokens for their activity (play-to-earn), integrating mechanics of traditional and blockchain games. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Yooldo will conduct an unlock of approximately 41.91 million ESPORTS tokens (about 4.7% of total emissions). Their cumulative value is estimated at about 17.2 million dollars, which makes up around 26% of the current circulating volume of the token—a quite significant share. Almost a quarter of the supply increase at once can significantly impact the market price: if new coins flood the exchanges, a price drop is likely due to the imbalance between supply and demand. Investors holding ESPORTS have recently experienced heightened volatility—the Yooldo token has seen double-digit declines amidst expectations and speculation regarding the unlock. The future dynamics will depend on how actively the unlocked tokens are sold. If the project team or long-term supporters of Yooldo decide to retain a significant portion of the coins to support the ecosystem, the negative effect may be softened. However, cryptocurrency investors should consider the risks: without a proportional influx of new players or investors into the Yooldo platform, such a large expansion of supply could lower the token price in the short term.

STBL

STBL is a relatively new decentralized stablecoin protocol aiming to combine transparency, yield, and backing by real assets (the “Stablecoin 2.0” concept). Its governance token STBL was launched in the fall of 2025, and now the period of active monthly unlocks begins. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the protocol will release approximately 288.39 million STBL tokens—about 2.88% of their total maximum amount. At current prices, the unlock volume is valued at approximately 16.1 million dollars. It should be emphasized that this is an extremely significant increase in supply: it is comparable to ~58% of the current market capitalization of STBL. In other words, if there is currently, hypothetically, 100 units of value in circulation, almost 58 more will be added on top. Such a sharp increase in circulation typically leads to strong downward pressure on the token’s price, especially if unlocked coins become immediately available for sale. However, the STBL team has pre-informed the market of its unlock schedule and the intended use for the new tokens. A significant portion of these coins may not be intended for immediate sale but to incentivize liquidity and reward ecosystem participants (e.g., providers of collateral for the stablecoin). Nevertheless, STBL holders should be prepared for volatility spikes: while the mechanisms and forecasts for this protocol's cryptocurrency are undergoing market validation, caution is warranted. Monitoring the activity of large addresses (particularly tracking whether new tokens will be directed to exchange accounts) will help timely assess sentiments and actions of major players.

Merlin Chain (MERL)

Merlin Chain (MERL) is a blockchain project developing a Bitcoin-native Layer 2: a second-layer network built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain to enhance throughput and integrate smart contracts into the Bitcoin ecosystem. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Merlin Chain will unlock approximately 36.14 million MERL—approximately 1.72% of the total token supply, equivalent to about 16.1 million dollars. This volume of new tokens constitutes about 4% of the current capitalization of MERL—a relatively small level by the week's unlock standards. For Merlin Chain, this is a planned quarterly token issuance for investors and advisors of the project, occurring against a backdrop of increased activity on the network (the project is attracting attention as a promising L2 platform for Bitcoin). Despite the moderate share, the sudden appearance of an additional 36 million coins may cause short-term price fluctuations. If some recipients choose to take profits, sales may occur soon after the unlock, potentially temporarily driving down the price of MERL. On the other hand, with the relatively small size of the unlock and positive expectations surrounding Merlin Chain, the market could absorb these tokens relatively quickly. For investors holding MERL, a rational strategy would involve monitoring the order book status and market sentiments: if strong interest in the project remains (especially from institutional partners testing Bitcoin-L2 solutions), the impact of the unlock could be minimal and short-lived.

Summary and Recommendations for Investors

During the week of December 15–21, hundreds of millions of tokens will be unlocked in total (over half a billion units) across seven different projects. Such events inevitably attract the attention of market participants due to their impact on supply and potential to temporarily impact prices under otherwise equal conditions. The ultimate effect depends on the proportion of new tokens relative to those already circulating: large unlocks (such as with STBL or Yooldo) carry a higher risk of one-time drops, whereas smaller proportions (as in the case of Arbitrum or Merlin Chain) are typically more easily accommodated by the market. Nonetheless, forecasts for cryptocurrencies with scheduled unlocks should always factor in the behavior of holders: if token recipients prefer to retain or utilize them within the ecosystem (staking, providing liquidity, etc.), the negative impact on price will be limited.

Cryptocurrency investors are advised to proactively plan their strategies around the dates of significant unlocks. This means:

• Monitoring the token unlock schedule and assessing what share of the total and circulating supplies is hitting the market.

• For significant percentages (double digits and above)—considering risk hedging measures or partial profit-taking before the event to avoid getting caught in a potential wave of sell-offs.

• Analyzing the fundamental metrics of the project: strong projects with active user communities and sought-after products often weather unlocks without long-term damage, whereas weak projects may see influxes in supply intensify downward trends.

• Keeping an eye on on-chain data immediately following the unlock. If significant volumes of new tokens move to exchanges, this signals possible selling pressure; conversely, if tokens stay in wallets or go to staking, the market will view this positively.

In conclusion, diversification and disciplined risk management remain the best protection for investors. Unlocks are known events, and the market often “prices in” their effects in advance. Nonetheless, reactions are not always predictable: the impact of token unlocks may vary from neutral to sharply negative in the short term. Based on our analysis, investors should remain vigilant and use such events as opportunities to reassess their positions. Thoughtful planning and timely cryptocurrency analytics will help navigate this influx of new tokens prepared, maintaining a balance between risks and growth potential in a dynamic cryptocurrency market.