The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced that Europe has enough jet fuel supplies for approximately six weeks. Russian companies, however, do not currently observe a shortage of fuel in foreign airports, although they note a sharp increase in prices. Experts confirm the risk of flight reductions in Europe. Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA, stated in an interview with the Associated Press that jet fuel stocks in Europe are sufficient for about six weeks. The energy crisis in Europe was triggered by the war between the United States and Iran that began on February 28 and disruptions in oil supplies from Persian Gulf countries. By March, Birol indicated that the situation was comparable to the oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas crisis of 2022. "Not only oil and gas but also some vital arteries of the global economy—such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and helium—are experiencing disrupted trade, which will lead to serious consequences for the global economy," he claimed. According to Birol, at that time, more than 40 energy facilities sustained significant damage following the commencement of military operations. Russian air carriers reacted calmly to the IEA director's latest statement. For instance, a representative of S7 told RBC that the airline does not see a fuel shortage in any of the foreign countries within its route network. "There is also no fuel shortage in Russia," she added. The press service of the charter airline Azur Air noted that they do not foresee risks to their summer flight program in Turkey due to fuel shortages. RBC sent inquiries to Aeroflot and Ural Airlines. Alexander Lanetsky, the CEO of Friendly Avia Support, informed RBC that jet fuel is currently available in European airports. He stated that a shortage could arise within two to three months, depending on the country. "If there are no supplies, transportation could be significantly reduced. But this is still a theoretical question," he believes. However, a source at one airline mentioned that fuel prices at foreign airports have increased by at least 30% from pre-war levels, with price rises reaching as much as 50% in some cases. "Under current conditions, this will pressure the profitability of transportation," he said. Lanetsky confirms that jet fuel prices in Europe have been rising since the onset of the armed conflict in the Middle East. "Jet fuel accounts for about 40–45% of operational costs for European carriers," he noted. "Over the last two months, the price of fuel has doubled on average. This is already impacting ticket prices." The expert added that he does not see any possibility for replacing traditional jet fuel with alternative fuels in the near years. According to Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of Open Oil Market, jet fuel prices today are "significantly higher than usual": based on International Air Transport Association data, the average price for jet fuel in Europe for the week ending April 10 was $203.6 per barrel ($1,607 per ton). "This is 4.7% higher than the previous month and 123.5% above the average for 2025," the expert notes. Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, stated that jet fuel prices in Northwestern Europe reached $1,800 per ton last week, whereas before the onset of the Middle East conflict, the price was between $750 and $830 per ton. "This is more than a twofold increase in six weeks. The previous record was set in spring 2022; the market has already surpassed it," he added. Tereshkin emphasizes that jet fuel falls into the category of light petroleum products that use low-sulfur oil in their production. "This is precisely the type of oil being extracted in the Middle East. Therefore, a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz poses risks for the jet fuel market," said the expert. Kasatkin points out that jet fuel in Europe is primarily produced by large refineries such as Total, Shell, BP, Eni, and Neste. However, domestic production in Europe is insufficient: a significant portion of the volumes is imported as a finished product and as raw materials for its production. Key external suppliers include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and India, the RBC source explains. "European refineries can increase jet fuel output, but only at the expense of reducing diesel or gasoline production, which is already in short supply," he noted. Sergey Kolobanov, deputy director of the Energy Sector Economics Center at the Strategic Development Center, assessed earlier in April that total jet fuel consumption in Europe in 2025 would be 48 million tons, of which only 30 million tons would be produced by EU refineries. The remaining part will be imported, with half of the imports coming from Middle Eastern countries. According to Tereshkin, it is too early to talk about a shortage. "There is a supply shock that is compounded by rising logistics costs. These factors will keep prices at a high level but do not threaten flight cancellations," he is confident. In contrast, Kasatkin believes that a shortage in Europe has already occurred, with four airports in Italy experiencing refueling restrictions—limiting any particular aircraft to 2,000 liters when a narrow-body aircraft would have a full capacity of 20,000 liters. "Airlines expect that jet fuel will remain scarce until the end of the year and may be forced to optimize their flights," says Kasatkin. "Some carriers did not hedge against fuel risks and remain fully exposed to price increases. Many have only a few weeks of fuel reserves left: most carriers will not last beyond 30 days, and in several Eastern European countries, reserves are down to just a week." Kasatkin reminds that the last tanker carrying jet fuel from the Persian Gulf arrived last week. "If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, by May reserves could be halved," he believes. "This would lead to mass flight cancellations, an increase in ticket prices, and a serious blow to the tourist season for economies in Southern Europe reliant on it." According to the analyst, among the emergency measures being considered are centralized jet fuel procurement at the EU level, a temporary suspension of carbon restrictions for aviation, and the removal of several taxes on air transportation. Source: RBC