In March, Russia increased its diesel fuel exports from Baltic ports by 22% compared to February and by 34% compared to March 2025, reaching 1.78 million tons, according to a review by the Center for Price Indices (CPI), which RBC has accessed. The majority, about 1.16 million tons, was shipped from the less-affected Primorsk port. Through the Ust-Luga port, 400 thousand tons were exported, which is 80% more compared to the previous month and 100% more year-on-year.
However, a series of incidents at the Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports complicated the export of petroleum products starting March 25. The situation is compounded by the existing ban on gasoline exports and could lead to a decline in external supplies of petroleum products, including diesel, according to CPI experts.
At the end of March and the beginning of April, drones attacked Ust-Luga port multiple times. One of the attacks occurred on the night of March 31. According to Leningrad Region Governor Alexander Drozdenko, three people were injured as a result of the attack, and homes and facilities in the village of Molodtsovo were damaged.
Earlier, on the night of March 23, Primorsk port in the Leningrad region was subjected to a drone strike, where storage tanks containing petroleum products caught fire. The resulting fire was localized after two days, on March 25. At that time, the regional administration reported that specialists found no exceedances of permissible concentrations of hazardous substances.
Russia's President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov noted that necessary measures are being taken to protect critical infrastructure locations, including Ust-Luga port in the Leningrad region. He emphasized that protective measures cannot eliminate the risk of attacks on these facilities.
Moreover, a dual situation has emerged in the petroleum transportation market. On one hand, global freight rates have been rising, and incidents in the Baltic ports increased risks for carriers, which should have led to a significant increase in freight costs, as noted in the CPI review. However, from March 23 to 29, rates virtually stagnated (changing from -$1 to +$3 per ton during the week) due to an oversupply of tonnage. In mid-March, a considerable amount of free volumes of light petroleum products arrived in the Baltic, and the incidents created a shortage of the cargo base due to partial terminal shutdowns. As a result, carriers were forced to reduce rates to find additional loading in the region.
Reasons for Export Increase in March
Experts interviewed by RBC, commenting on the reasons for the growth in diesel fuel supplies from Russia in March, agreed that these increases were due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed a significant portion of Middle Eastern petroleum products from the market. Concerns over fuel shortages led consumers to deplete inventory levels, noted Sergey Tereshkin, the CEO of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market. For instance, commercial stocks at the Fujairah port in the UAE (the primary logistics hub for the entire Middle East) decreased by 36%, down to 13.3 million barrels of petroleum products, during the period from March 2 to 30.
Until 2022, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of diesel fuel to the European market, and subsequently, Russian diesel has been re-exported to the EU via Turkey. Most likely, transit supplies intensified against the backdrop of the current crisis and risks of diesel shortages in several European countries, according to Tereshkin.
According to independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov, Egypt has been involved in re-exporting Russian petroleum products to the European market since 2025. However, since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, direct fuel exports from Russia have also been rising. Importers, facing the risk of shortages and disruptions in supply from Gulf countries, stopped fearing secondary sanctions from the United States. "They understand that the primary task of President Donald Trump's administration is to mitigate the risks of rising prices against the backdrop of transit problems in the Middle East, therefore, Washington has relaxed monitoring compliance with sanctions against Russia," said the expert.
As emphasized by Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting, the current demand for petroleum products is at its maximum since 2022. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a diesel fuel shortage in Europe and South Asia, and its wholesale price in Frankfurt approached the record set in May 2022. "The temporary easing of sanctions has further expanded the pool of buyers; the discount on Russian diesel against European benchmarks has narrowed to a minimum. However, the capacity to realize this demand is limited: incidents at Baltic terminals are reducing export opportunities at the most inconvenient time for the global market," noted the expert.
The United States temporarily exempted the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels by March 12 from sanctions. The license is valid until April 11 and does not apply to transactions related to Iran.
Redirecting Volumes
The volumes of diesel fuel impacted by the incidents in Baltic ports, as CPI notes, can be replaced by supplies through the Big Port of St. Petersburg and the Vysotsk port, which have a combined capacity of over 400 thousand tons. At the same time, considering the accident at the Kirishi refinery, there is no immediate need to substitute the export capacity in Primorsk.
If the infrastructure of Primorsk and Ust-Luga is not quickly restored to sufficient capacity, diesel fuel exports through Baltic ports in April may decrease by 30–50% compared to March, according to Kasatkin. Petroleum products are supplied to these ports through pipelines, and it is physically impossible to quickly shift volumes to other routes, he explained.
Redirecting to Novorossiysk or Taman would require rail transportation (the distance exceeds 2,000 km). This significantly increases costs and is limited by the capacity of Russian Railways. Experts estimate that it is realistically possible to redistribute no more than 15–20% of the lost volumes. A portion of the petroleum products will go to the domestic market, which may create upward pressure on wholesale diesel prices within the country.
Source: RBC
