On May 31, Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that the EU might temporarily forego raising the price cap on Russian oil. The current price cap stands at $44.1 per barrel and is to be adjusted every six months based on the average Urals price. Due to the rise in global prices driven by the Middle Eastern conflict, the cap on Russian oil could rise to $65 per barrel, the agency notes.
According to Bloomberg, the EU could suspend the automatic price cap increase until the end of 2026 or set a maximum value at $60 per barrel.
This measure could be included in the 21st package of EU sanctions against Russia. A representative of the European Commission declined to comment for the agency.
The EU and G7 countries allow their companies to provide services for the maritime transport of Russian oil and oil products to third countries, provided they comply with the price cap. The $44.1 per barrel value was established by the EU, the UK, and Canada, while Japan set the cap at $47.6 per barrel, and the US at $60 per barrel.
According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite, tankers affiliated with G7 countries or their allies accounted for 29.4% of Russian oil exports in April, reaching 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d), up from 20.3% in March. The April figure was the highest in seven months.
Analysts attribute the rise in the share of tankers linked to the G7 to signals from Western authorities indicating a potential softening of sanctions against Russian oil amid an impending global raw material shortage due to the Middle Eastern conflict. Since March, the US has issued four licenses for transactions involving Russian oil and oil products. The last permit is valid until June 17 and pertains to volumes loaded onto tankers before April 17.
Moreover, the EU did not include a ban on providing transportation services for Russian oil in the 20th sanctions package. Instead, the EU Council reported that a "basis for a future ban" will be established in coordination with the G7. The council's regulation noted that it would be reasonable to amend the price cap on Russian oil and oil products, which would allow for "promptly blocking" maritime supplies (see “Ъ” April 24).
According to Bloomberg, the complete prohibition on maritime transportation of Russian oil is also unlikely to be included in the 21st sanctions package against Russia.
This measure is not supported by a number of EU member states and the G7 as a whole, the agency reports. Previously, Greece—the largest shipping country in Europe—opposed a complete ban. According to CAS, in April, Greek tanker operators increased the transportation of Russian oil by 2.2 times, reaching 687 thousand b/d, the highest level since October 2025.
Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University, states that the price cap itself does not directly influence the volumes of Russian exports. However, should the cap be raised and Russian oil fall within it, this would intensify competition between shadow and conventional fleets, reduce freight costs, and enable Russia to earn more—this is where, according to the expert, lies the complexity for Europeans, prompting them to contemplate their next steps.
Kirill Bakhtin, the head of the Russian equities analytics center "BCS World of Investments," notes that the $44.1 or $60–65 per barrel level is not particularly significant for Russian oil producers today, as the actual price is higher. According to Argus, as of May 22, Urals was priced at $84–85 per barrel, depending on the loading port. "The price cap set by the EU is a far less effective tool than that of the G7, in our opinion," adds Mr. Bakhtin.
Sergey Teryoshkin, the CEO of Open Oil Market, mentions that the oil price cap is the most difficult restriction to administer.
"If it is sufficient to monitor ships entering ports for direct imports of oil and oil products, tracking the price cap requires overseeing hundreds and thousands of transactions related to oil purchases, which is virtually impossible from a technical standpoint," explains the analyst. However, Mr. Teryoshkin notes that a temporary abandonment of the price cap would be an acknowledgment of its ineffectiveness, leading the EU to consider another "reconfiguration" of this mechanism. He believes that this would not significantly change the overall market situation.
Source: Kommersant
