Gasoline prices have stopped, but diesel has started to rise. Should we expect a lull at gas stations by the end of the year?

However, rest is still a distant dream for us; during the same week, the price of diesel fuel (DT) rose by 51 kopecks, accumulating a total increase of 1 ruble and 47 kopecks (1.7%) over the last four weeks. Since the beginning of the year, the price of DT has gone up by 6.1%, exceeding the consumer inflation rate for the same period (5.23%). Gasoline surpassed inflation back in July, and by November 5, the average price increase for gasoline had more than doubled the inflation rate (12.1%).

This year, gasoline prices may break records for increases since 2019, marking the point when the price dampers (subsidies to oil producers from the budget for supplying fuel to the domestic market) were introduced. At that time, the government established a "gentlemen's agreement" with oil companies that gas station prices should not grow beyond the annual consumer inflation.

On average, gasoline prices exceeded the annual consumer inflation by 1.6% last year and are likely to surpass that this year. Since 2019, the government has repeatedly adjusted the parameters of price dampers, always reducing payments to oil companies until this year. During the peak of the gasoline crisis, a decision was made to temporarily ban the complete removal of price dampers (when exceeding threshold prices on the exchange), which was a positive step for the industry. It is likely that this decision, combined with the seasonal drop in demand, influenced the market, leading to the cessation of price increases at gas stations.

This brings us to two major questions regarding gasoline that might be on everyone's mind - how long will the calm continue in the market, and can retail gasoline prices drop by the end of the year? In the case of diesel, two additional concerns arise: how long will its prices continue to rise, and by how much?

The halt in retail gasoline price increases followed a decline from historical highs in its exchange quotations. The grade AI-92 decreased by 16.5% on wholesale markets, while AI-95 fell by 8.3%. At the same time, during the peak price increases since the beginning of the year, their quotations rose by 43.7% for AI-92 and 49.6% for AI-95. Thus, in relative terms, the decrease in quotations was minimal.

According to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, 2025 can indeed be called a unique year regarding the volatility of gasoline exchange prices. This is due to the force majeure in the latter half of the year (stoppages at oil refineries due to UAV attacks). The drop in exchange prices will, first and foremost, affect the financial situation of independent gas stations (those not owned by major oil companies, which account for about half of gas stations in Russia). Retail prices at these stations traditionally differ from those at vertically integrated oil companies (VIOC, which manage the entire production cycle, from oil extraction and refining to the sale of finished fuel at retail) by 10-20 rubles. Therefore, a price decrease here can be logically anticipated, as emphasized by Stankevich and required by the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia.

Analyst Sergey Kaufman from FG "Finam" notes that independent gas stations may witness a slight decrease in gasoline prices as their margins return to positive territory. However, there will not be significant price decreases at VIOC gas stations. While the situation in the wholesale market has eased, it remains challenging. Additionally, since July, the margin for gas stations selling gasoline has been in the negative zone, and they may now have to maintain prices at elevated levels to mitigate previous losses, according to the expert's assessment.

Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" association and member of the expert council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, believes that retail gasoline prices will not plummet; they are already at minimal possible levels. As long as we have fuel prices tied to inflation, we shouldn't expect them to drop; their increase seems predetermined. Alternatively, we could wait for overall deflation in the country, which would then be a question for the Central Bank.

From the perspective of Mark Shumilov, an analyst in the resource sectors at "Renaissance Capital", the main driver of stabilization in gasoline prices remains the restoration of fuel output at oil refineries post-maintenance. Following this, gasoline prices at gas stations could stabilize at more comfortable levels.

The situation with diesel fuel is a bit different. As Kaufman points out, transitioning to winter diesel in Russia has traditionally been quite difficult, resulting in a clear seasonal price increase for DT. Currently, the seasonal factor is compounded by a reduction in oil processing volumes due to attacks on refineries. The expert suggests that price pressure on diesel could remain elevated for another 2 to 2.5 months, with year-end diesel price increases projected at around 8.5% to 9.5%.

However, one can argue that the UAV attacks on refineries predominantly affect gasoline production, which has always been produced in Russia at levels 12-15% higher than domestic market demand. Diesel production, on the other hand, almost doubles domestic demand, and even by the most pessimistic estimates from Western information agencies, the UAV strikes have affected no more than 30% of our refining capacity. Exports of diesel to non-producers (traders) have been temporarily banned. Therefore, even now, more diesel is being produced than the domestic market requires. Traditionally, increases in diesel prices slow down and then halt by early December.