The government is considering the possibility of reintroducing a complete ban on gasoline exports starting April 1 of this year. This issue was discussed at a meeting on March 27 regarding the fuel market situation, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, as reported by "Vedomosti." Earlier, Novak stated that authorities are examining various tools to secure the domestic fuel market, including a total ban on gasoline exports.
The comprehensive ban affects not only traders (commercial companies) but also direct producers - oil refineries (OR). The complete ban on gasoline exports was initially implemented on August 31, 2025, and, after several extensions, remained in effect until February 1 of this year. Since February 1, ORs have had the opportunity to export gasoline abroad. However, as we can see, this situation may not last long.
The re-imposition of the complete ban was anticipated. The increase in exchange and retail prices accelerated in March, traditionally fueled by rising spring demand and, atypically, by events in the Middle East, which pushed global oil and petroleum product prices to multi-year highs. In Russia, since late February, exchange prices for gasoline peaked with a 16% increase, while diesel fuel (DF) prices surged by 22%. Currently, quotations have slightly declined, likely due to the initial news of the full export ban.
Retail price increases will pause but will not lead to significant price reductions.
However, the government is primarily focused on retail prices. The average price of gasoline at gas stations has increased by 2.77% since the end of last year. The growth rate has effectively caught up with the national average inflation rate, which reached 2.78% by March 23.
Experts interviewed by "RG" believe that the reaction to the export ban will be unambiguous. Exchange prices will slow their growth and may even decline. The retail price hikes will pause but will not significantly lower prices. Their dynamics will align with inflation, but not more than that. However, it is crucial to note that the end of summer and fall, when prices tend to rise much faster than in spring, is ahead.
The export ban leaves producers with no choice regarding whom to sell their goods. Previously, there was an external market with higher prices and a domestic market with lower prices, but now there is no option. Moreover, the external market is closed, meaning all volumes previously intended for export stay within the country - demand lags behind supply. Thus, producers have no choice but to lower prices. But only temporarily.
In a conversation with "RG," Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, noted that the export ban is a quick response tool that can temporarily stabilize the market but does not address structural problems. For consumers, it signifies a pause in price growth rather than a significant reduction. For the industry, it poses another uncertainty factor.
Everything has changed - from supply directions to geopolitics. According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Russia Gas Station" competition, a complete export ban, in terms of market stabilization, is a necessary measure but is strategically incorrect. Instead of stimulating oil refining and creating conditions to encourage oil companies to increase the depth and volume of oil processing, we are closing exports. We are becoming unreliable suppliers of petroleum products in foreign markets. Given the current prices, we are not profiting from petroleum products, although we could. We are forced to profit only from oil.
As noted by Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research, in a situation where unplanned refinery shutdowns are possible, where there is not a significant production cushion for gasoline, as well as seasonal demand growth, the export ban can only slow down price increases. Serious price reductions should not be expected. This applies to both wholesale and retail markets.
The fact is that in terms of profitability, most large refineries in our country have focused not on the domestic market but on exports. This is simply because half of the oil and petroleum products produced in our country are sent for export. It is much more profitable to export processed products with added value than simply raw materials. This perspective has been facilitated by the state's fiscal policy. The large tax maneuver (LTM) reduced the export duty on oil and light petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel) to zero (ending in 2024) but increased levies on gross oil production. Essentially, oil is extracted, taxes are paid, while added value is gained through the production of gasoline and DF sent for export.
While export bans can mitigate periodic fuel crises within the country, they can only be "cured" through increased production of gasoline and DF. When sufficient supply exists for both external and internal markets, there are ample resources available. However, no investor will invest in building a new refinery, knowing that their market for profit can be suddenly closed.
As Frolov points out, since the beginning of the tax maneuver, investments in oil refining were already unattractive. In a context of manual regulation and geopolitical unpredictability, the investment attractiveness of oil refining is currently negative.
Oil refining is a capital-intensive business with a long investment cycle, Stankevich notes. The industry is extremely interested in the predictability of export and tax policies, stable margins, and uninterrupted transport infrastructure operations. When the export window is periodically closed, especially during favorable external conditions, companies lose profits, which inevitably reduces the return on investments in upgrading refineries and restoring them after continuous drone attacks, he believes.
In the short term, bans even demotivate increasing fuel production if domestic prices become less attractive compared to export alternatives. In the long term, increasing processing is secured not through bans but through technological modernization, tax incentives, stability in overseas deliveries, and the development of domestic demand, Stankevich argues.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the industry urgently needs new solutions to boost the profitability of oil refining and thus reduce price pressures. One option could be to reduce the excise tax rate on the "federal" portion: currently, 74.9% of excise tax revenues on gasoline and diesel fuel go to regional budgets, while 25.1% goes to the federal budget. Cutting excise taxes by a quarter would improve the economics of oil refining. Regarding the industry's investment prospects, guarantees of fuel infrastructure safety and the removal of external restrictions on importing equipment for refineries are crucial. Without this, companies will find it challenging to sustainably increase fuel production, and regulators will struggle to provide price stability.
Source: RG.RU
