The government's first-ever ban on the export of aviation kerosene will shield the market from unplanned fuel price spikes. The embargo will remain in effect until the end of November. According to the cabinet, the goal of this decision is to ensure a stable situation on the domestic market. Experts believe this will generate an additional roughly 2 million tonnes of fuel, but will not lead to lower airfare prices. At the same time, the measure will cool wholesale exchange prices, enabling airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal surge, meaning ticket prices will not rise at an accelerated pace.
Temporary Ban on Aviation Kerosene Exports
The government has introduced a temporary ban on the export of aviation kerosene for the first time, effective until November 30, 2026. The decision aims to ensure stability in the domestic fuel market, the cabinet press service reported.
"The government continues its work to maintain reliable and uninterrupted fuel supply to the domestic market. A new decree introduces a temporary ban on the export of jet fuel from Russia, including fuel purchased at exchange auctions. The restriction will be in effect until November 30, 2026, inclusive," the statement said.
Exceptions will apply to batches of aviation kerosene placed under customs procedures before the decree came into force, supplies under intergovernmental agreements, and fuel in technological tanks used by aircraft in transit, the cabinet noted.
Russia currently also has a ban on gasoline exports for all market participants until July 31, 2026. Until that same date, restrictions on the export of diesel fuel, marine fuel, and other types of gas oils remain in place for non-producers.
There is no official data on the volume of aviation kerosene production and consumption in the Russian Federation. Izvestia has sent a request to the Ministry of Energy. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Russian aviation kerosene market in 2024 stood at 10.01 million tonnes per year, with production at 11.6 million tonnes. The surplus fuel was exported abroad.
According to Transport Minister Andrey Nikitin, there is currently no shortage of aviation kerosene in Russia.
— There is currently no deficit at all. In any case, under any circumstances, we proceed from the interests of our airlines, he said.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, the traditional consumers of Russian-produced aviation kerosene are Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia.
— Export supplies outside the EAEU are gradually shrinking amid growing domestic demand. For example, in April 2026, no aviation kerosene was shipped by sea, she noted.
Earlier, media reports indicated that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed further work on a number of issues to stabilize the domestic fuel market. In particular, consultations with Belarus are to be held to increase gasoline supplies to Russia, as well as discussions on the possibility of increasing import damping payments, including for Belarusian fuel, with retroactive amendments to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation effective from June 1, 2026.
However, an industry source for Izvestia could not confirm this information. According to him, Minsk is already supplying fuel to the Russian market, which it produces from Russian oil.
— Moreover, Russia pays damping to Belarusian producers, the interlocutor noted.
Another Izvestia industry source believes that if we are talking about increasing damping payments, the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to agree to this.
— Last month, 207 billion rubles were paid out under the fuel damping mechanism, compared to 15 billion rubles that oil companies paid in March, he noted.
According to the National Exchange Pricing Agency, between May 1 and May 22, 17.34 thousand tonnes of gasoline from Belarusian refineries were sold on the St. Petersburg Exchange in Russia. This is 58 times more than in the same period in 2025.
Two Belarusian refineries — Mozyr and Novopolotsk — produce 3–3.5 million tonnes of gasoline per year, while domestic consumption is up to 1.2 million tonnes per year.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces over 40 million tonnes per year, with consumption at around 38–39 million tonnes per year.
Why the Cabinet Introduced the Ban on Aviation Kerosene Exports
Last week, as reported by Izvestia citing industry sources, the government was discussing a ban on the export of both diesel and aviation fuel. This issue, according to the editors' sources, was raised at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Against the backdrop of the escalating Middle East conflict, demand and competition for Russian energy resources have sharply increased, experts noted. They described a measure such as a ban on fuel exports as highly relevant given the overall situation on the global oil market, since with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices, the petroleum products market becomes extremely attractive and profitable, tempting Russian oil companies to increase their fuel supplies to external markets.
— To prevent this temptation from being realized, the government is introducing an embargo, or at least considering such a possibility, noted Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government.
At the same time, experts leaned towards the view that if an export ban were to be introduced, it would be on aviation kerosene, as diesel fuel production in Russia is more surplus.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces about 80 million tonnes of diesel per year, consuming only half of that volume. As for aviation kerosene, production is roughly 11–12 million tonnes, with consumption around 10 million tonnes.
— Thus, the market will receive about 2 million tonnes of additional aviation fuel, Ekaterina Kosareva emphasized.
According to open-source data, 2 million tonnes of aviation kerosene is enough for 18–26 thousand full refuelings of long-haul aircraft or 66–133 thousand refuelings of narrow-body (medium-haul) passenger aircraft. Russia's civil aviation performs between 2.1 and 2.3 thousand flights per day, meaning this volume would be sufficient for approximately two to three months of flights for the entire country.
According to Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the industry agency AviaPort, considering 2 million tonnes as a volume that cannot be exported due to the ban does not automatically mean its domestic consumption will increase.
— According to statements from the Ministry of Transport and industry representatives, no fuel shortage is expected, but there are also no grounds to forecast a significant increase in domestic traffic volume for the year. Consequently, there are no prerequisites to assume that significantly more fuel will be needed, he noted.
Nevertheless, having reserves is a factor of strategic stability and is necessary, the expert believes. It also remains unclear whether the expert estimate of 2 million tonnes accounts for circumstances where fuel supplies to external markets may continue under intergovernmental agreements.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner," believes that systematic work is needed, including damping mechanisms for airlines.
— First and foremost, it is necessary to build reserves, and secondly, to hedge price risks to eliminate questions about potential kerosene shortages in certain periods. In this context, closing aviation fuel exports is a preventive measure aimed at saturating the domestic market, the expert noted.
However, he believes that overall, economic actors are expected to be more independent — they must understand that to increase aviation fuel consumption, they need to make advance purchases and hedge risks, without shifting these tasks to the Ministry of Energy and the government.
According to Valery Andrianov, in recent years Russia has seen a surplus of aviation kerosene, meaning production (about 11.6 million tonnes per year) exceeded domestic consumption (roughly 8.5–9 million tonnes).
— At the same time, consumption is highly uneven — it rises in June-August, during the summer holiday season. Accordingly, 2–2.5 million tonnes per year were exported. The main supply destinations were Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan — as well as Turkey, the Middle East, and Asia, the analyst noted.
Izvestia has sent requests to all major oil companies and airlines in the Russian Federation.
What Impact the Cabinet's Decision Will Have on the Market
According to the St. Petersburg Exchange, the price of aviation fuel on over-the-counter trades has risen 7.14% since the beginning of May — from 78,991 rubles per tonne on May 1 to 84,634 rubles on May 31. Meanwhile, as of May 25, one tonne of aviation kerosene cost 96,776 rubles.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, the excise duty on aviation kerosene has remained unchanged for almost 10 years: since 2017, the rate has been 2,800 rubles per tonne. For comparison, the excise on Class 5 gasoline increased from 10,130 rubles per tonne in 2017 to 17,959 rubles per tonne in 2026, and the excise on diesel fuel rose from 6,800 rubles to 12,738 rubles, respectively.
— A fixed excise duty should have a stabilizing effect on the cost of aviation kerosene. However, in practice, exchange prices have risen from 80 thousand to almost 100 thousand rubles per tonne over the past two months. The export ban may slow the increase, but prices will not return to previous levels anytime soon, the expert emphasized.
According to Valery Andrianov, the export ban will insure against risks of an aviation kerosene shortage in the country. Giving up exports will allow reserves to be built up ahead of the summer navigation peak, the Izvestia interlocutor believes.
An industry source told the editorial team that the share of fuel in the price of an air ticket is not fixed — "it fluctuates significantly depending on the price of kerosene."
According to him, it is "approximately 25–30% of the ticket price, but may be lower when prices fall and higher when prices rise sharply."
-— As for ticket prices, the embargo on aviation kerosene exports will not lead to their reduction. After all, other factors are putting pressure on their cost: the rising cost of aircraft maintenance and repairs under sanctions, a shortage of spare parts, and general inflation. But at the same time, the embargo will prevent a sharp increase in ticket prices, which could have occurred in the event of an acute kerosene shortage on the domestic market, said Valery Andrianov.
In his opinion, the export ban will likely cool wholesale prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal price jump. This means ticket prices will not rise at an accelerated pace. Domestic consumption in physical volumes will not increase, but the market will be guaranteed insurance against shortages.
Source: Izvestia
