The attractiveness of Russian diesel fuel in the global market is increasing against the backdrop of the Hormuz crisis. Exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk amounted to 1.4 million tons during the first half of March, with 29 ship calls, according to data from the Price Index Center (PIC), reviewed by RBC. This volume is already nearly comparable to the total shipments from the same port for the entire month of February.
In Primorsk port, located in the Leningrad region, fuel tanks were damaged and a fire broke out due to an attack by Ukrainian drones, as reported by the region's governor, Alexander Drozdenko, on March 23. According to information from Reuters, the port briefly suspended the loading of oil and petroleum products.
At the same time, in February, the total export of diesel fuel from Russian ports showed a decline, amounting to 2.3 million tons, which is approximately 30% lower than in January. The main destination for supplies was Brazil, where Russia shipped 680,000 tons of diesel fuel—a decrease of 4% month-on-month. Exports to Turkey decreased by 28%, totaling 400,000 tons, and exports to Africa decreased by 46%, to 531,000 tons. Supplies to other destinations decreased by 19%, reaching 453,000 tons.
Gasoline is being exported from Russia to far abroad, but the volumes are insignificant, two industry sources told RBC. Meanwhile, gasoline sales through the St. Petersburg exchange plummeted in March: if at the beginning of the month the total daily sales volume exceeded 50,000 tons, by March 20 it dropped to 34,000 tons.
Russia supplies petroleum products under intergovernmental agreements (primarily to EAEU countries and Mongolia), even during periods when a ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel is in effect.
Mongolia's deputy minister of industry and mineral resources, Bagzsurengiin Enkhtuvshin, stated in March that the country will meet its fuel demand entirely through imports from Russia because China has banned petroleum product exports due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
An agreement between Russia and Mongolia, signed in 2024, provides for the supply of 1.8–1.9 million tons of petroleum products and 60,000 tons of jet fuel annually on mutually beneficial terms.
Will Export Growth Impact the Domestic Market?
Experts surveyed believe that the growth in export revenues for Russian oil companies will lead to increased refining margins and will ease price pressure in the domestic market.
In 2025, oil producers lost high export revenues for a number of reasons, which forced them to "recoup" this through price increases in the domestic market, noted independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov. The net profit of Russian petroleum producers decreased by 16% last year, totaling 2.26 trillion rubles. Additionally, oil companies received fewer budget payments through the fuel price damper mechanism—882 billion rubles compared to 1.8 trillion rubles in 2024. All of this led to decreasing refining margins.
2025 Crisis
Exchange prices for gasoline in Russia hit historic highs during the summer and fall of 2025. Retail prices also increased significantly. Heads of certain regions reported a fuel shortage at local gas stations.
However, by mid-October, exchange quotations began to retreat from their record levels. As explained to journalists by Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, this occurred amid export restrictions and a rise in production following the end of refinery repairs.
By the end of the year, the government permitted companies with annual production capacity exceeding 1 million tons of petroleum products to export diesel fuel abroad. At the end of January 2026, the export ban on gasoline was also lifted for oil companies. This permission is effective until July 31.
"Now, Russian oil companies have received a favorable turn, with the rise in petroleum prices worldwide, which will lead to an increase in refining margins," Rodionov believes. Therefore, the expert does not see any threat to the domestic market. Consequently, the government will not need to resort to an export ban in the coming months, despite the seasonal increase in demand from agricultural producers.
According to the National Pricing Exchange Agency, ahead of the high consumption season, buyers have shown increased interest in summer-grade diesel fuel, with the supply volume continuing to rise since late February. This situation is typical for each year: in 2025, demand for summer diesel fuel reached 53.3% of sales volume by mid-March.
The Russian fuel market is traditionally characterized as surplus, says Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market. Until 2022, the ratio of exports to the domestic market was 50-50, and afterward switched to 40-60 in favor of the domestic market, partly due to increased demand for heavy machinery. However, the surplus remains, and it makes sense to direct it to foreign markets, especially now when the reduction of raw material transit through the Strait of Hormuz has led to rising global prices, he adds.
At the same time, the cost of diesel fuel at the St. Petersburg exchange has soared by 20% since the beginning of the month, closing at 67,774 rubles per ton at the end of trading on Monday, which corresponds to levels seen in mid-September 2025. The prices of gasoline AI-92 and AI-95 increased by more than 12% during the same period, reaching 67,603 rubles and 71,398 rubles per ton, respectively.
Managing partner of NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, believes this growth will be mitigated by the damping payments. If this does not help stabilize prices, the government will promptly reinstate the export ban. The analyst suggests that such a situation could arise as early as April.
The fuel damper mechanism works by compensating refiners through government subsidies, motivating oil producers to supply more gasoline and diesel to the domestic market rather than for export. If selling fuel abroad is more profitable than domestically, authorities compensate oil companies for the difference with export revenues, thus stabilizing price dynamics. However, if domestic fuel prices exceed certain thresholds, damping payments are canceled.
Tereshkin believes that there is no need to impose export restrictions on diesel fuel. Thanks to the surplus, the price increase is more moderate compared to gasoline. According to Rosstat, as of March 16, the accumulated increase in retail prices for diesel fuel since the end of last year was 1.6%, while for gasoline, it was 2.4%, amid inflation at 2.6%.
From March 1 to March 23, 2026, gasoline sales at the St. Petersburg exchange totaled 691,210 tons, which is 5.7% higher than in March 2025 and 16.8% more than in February this year, according to the National Exchange Pricing Agency. The total volume of diesel fuel sales in March was 1.2 million tons, which is 11% higher than the figures for the same period last year and 5.1% more than in February 2026. In the second half of March, market participants did note increased buyer interest in petroleum products. However, the key factor here is the seasonal component: the beginning of spring field work, increased road transport activity, as well as scheduled refinery repairs, the agency added.
RBC has requested a comment from the press service of the Ministry of Energy.
Source: RBC
