In Russia, a full ban on the export of diesel fuel (DF) is set to take effect. The only exception is for deliveries made under intergovernmental agreements. This was announced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin and the government. Prior to this, the export prohibition on DF only applied to traders, while direct producers of diesel, namely oil refineries, were permitted to supply it abroad. Earlier in April, a complete ban on gasoline exports was introduced. The reason for the temporary gap between the bans is that gasoline production in Russia is only 10-15% above domestic needs, whereas diesel fuel is produced 40-45% more than required for the internal market. This is why gasoline was the first to face a complete export ban. The fuel issues in Russia arose against the backdrop of seasonal demand increases and the shutdowns of refineries due to unscheduled repairs following drone attacks. Initially, this led to rising prices in wholesale and retail markets, but now there is a real threat of fuel shortages. As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, in a conversation with "RG," the export ban seems to be aimed at saturating the supply chain for DF. The existing capacities, even considering unscheduled refinery repairs, are sufficient to meet the domestic market's needs. However, with the export ban in place, producers will have no alternative but to supply fuel to Russian consumers, whether small wholesalers or gas stations. The issue is that exporting DF remains more profitable for producers in Russia than supplying to the domestic market. Considering the volume drops due to the refinery repairs, exports could start to detrimentally affect the domestic market. According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, it cannot be said that there is a diesel shortage. However, given the emerging problems and the internal demands of the country in various sectors, preventive measures have become necessary to avoid and contain this issue. The expert believes that despite the government’s stance on keeping fuel prices in check, the primary objective should be ensuring fuel availability for the population and businesses. Ultimately, the price will depend on market dynamics. Tereshkin asserts that off-exchange prices will continue to significantly exceed exchange levels. Although the rise in prices in the over-the-counter segment is likely to slow down. Another nuance is related to the technical specifics of petroleum production. One ton of crude oil cannot be converted into only gasoline or only diesel. Approximately, it yields about 300 kg of diesel, 240 kg of gasoline, and 410 kg of other petroleum products. If diesel production begins to decrease due to market oversaturation, the production of other petroleum products will also decline, and in the worst-case scenario, this may impact oil extraction. Moreover, the export ban on DF is far more sensitive for Russian refineries than the ban on gasoline exports. Diesel remains one of the two key export petroleum products (alongside fuel oil) due to its high margins. Tereshkin is confident that if the ban lasts for two months, it will not affect the dynamics of oil extraction, especially considering that a reduction in refining typically leads to increased oil exports alongside a decrease in petroleum products. In addition to the ban on diesel exports, Novak announced that starting from July, Russia will begin importing petroleum products. This is also intended to help saturate the domestic market, primarily with gasoline. Since the prices of imported gasoline are higher than those in Russia, the government previously decided that importers of fuel could receive a price damper (compensation from the budget for part of the difference between domestic fuel prices and export prices). This measure will prevent internal prices for gasoline and diesel from skyrocketing and make such imports profitable for intermediaries. Previously, only Russian and Belarusian refineries could receive this damper. Now it extends to imported gasoline; for fuel from EAEU countries, a coefficient of 0.9 was established from June 1, 2026, while a separate formula will apply for imports from other countries through import parity. Experts had previously estimated that the total volume of needed fuel imports into Russia per month would hardly exceed 0.5-1 million tons, which should not significantly impact gas station prices. Source: RG.RU