Global Lithium Prices Rise Amid Increased Battery Demand. Russia Prepares to Launch Its Own Lithium Production by 2026, Targeting 28,000 Tons Annually by 2030. An Analytical Review for Investors.
Global lithium prices are experiencing a new wave of growth amid expectations of a rapid increase in demand. In early December, futures for lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou exchange surged to $13,300 per ton— a peak not seen in the last year and a half. On the London Metal Exchange, contracts for lithium hydroxide exceeded $10,000 per ton, gaining approximately 6% within a month. Experts attribute this revival to the prospects of explosive growth in the battery and electric vehicle markets in the coming years.
Analysts forecast that global lithium demand may reach between 700,000 and 900,000 tons (on a net metal basis) by 2026, significantly higher than levels seen in the mid-2020s. In comparison, the International Energy Agency estimated global lithium consumption in 2024 at around 220,000 tons. While there is considerable variance in the projections, all agree that the consumption of "white gold" will increase at an accelerating pace. By 2030, annual demand is projected to exceed 1 to 2 million tons, reflecting a boom in electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Batteries and Electric Vehicles — The Main Driver of Demand
The rapid growth in lithium use is primarily driven by advancements in battery technologies. Approximately 80% of all lithium produced today is used in the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries, mainly for electric vehicles. As the global automotive industry transitions to electric power, demand for batteries is set to grow exponentially. Experts predict that within the next 3 to 4 years, the market for "green" batteries will increase by hundreds of percent. By 2028 to 2030, global annual electric vehicle production could reach between 20 to 25 million units, which in turn will push lithium consumption to unprecedented levels. Most consumption is concentrated in Asia, where around 90% of lithium raw materials are processed into batteries in China, South Korea, and Japan. These regions, along with North America, are leading in the growth of electric transportation fleets and energy storage capacities.
Who Extracts Lithium: Global Leaders
The global lithium extraction market is dominated by several countries. The largest producer is Australia, accounting for up to 40% of the world's primary lithium supply. Chile and China complete the top three. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its presence in the sector: the country is investing in new deposits both domestically and internationally, controlling about 60% of lithium raw material processing capacities. By the first half of 2025, China's share of global lithium extraction is expected to reach 28%, and analysts estimate that by 2026, China could overtake Australia to become the largest lithium supplier in the world, maintaining its leadership at least until the mid-2030s. Other players are also expanding production— new projects are being implemented in Zimbabwe and Argentina. In this race for "white gold," Russia’s role is currently minimal; however, domestic extraction has the potential to eventually include the country among key lithium producers.
Russia: Dependence on Lithium Imports
Despite the global excitement surrounding lithium, production of this metal in Russia is virtually nonexistent. Small volumes (around several dozen tons per year) are extracted only as a byproduct at the Malyshevskoye beryllium deposit in the Sverdlovsk region. The vast majority of lithium required for the economy is sourced from overseas. Experts estimate that Russia's current lithium needs are around 1,000 to 1,500 tons per year (on a net metal basis)—and they are entirely covered by imports from Latin American countries and China. Less than half of this volume is utilized for battery production within the country; the remainder is consumed in the production of specialized lubricants, heat-resistant ceramics, glass, and other materials.
Such dependence on the import of strategic raw materials jeopardizes plans to develop high-tech sectors. While leading global economies are actively securing control over lithium resources worldwide, Russia is only beginning to catch up in harnessing its own reserves of the "new oil of the 21st century." The country possesses significant lithium resources—according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, explored ore reserves amount to about 3.5 million tons of lithium oxide (equivalent to approximately 1.6 million tons of pure metal). This potential still needs to be transformed into actual production.
Government Strategy: Launching Domestic Lithium Production
In 2025, Russian authorities clearly established the course for closing the gap in the lithium sector. In February, at the "Technologies of the Future" forum, President Vladimir Putin publicly lamented that lithium extraction in the country has yet to be organized—even though all possibilities were present, and production could have started 10 to 15 years ago. On November 1, he tasked the government with approving a "roadmap" for the long-term development of rare and rare-earth metals production (including lithium) within a month. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has been appointed responsible for this, emphasizing the priority of the issue.
Specific targets have also been established. According to plans from the Ministry of Natural Resources, by 2030, Russia should produce at least 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually—equivalent to approximately 28,000 tons of pure lithium per year. Achieving such volumes would cover the country's internal metal needs entirely and even create an export reserve. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, it will take approximately six years to achieve complete "import independence" in lithium, with the aim of reaching self-sufficiency in the Russian market in lithium raw materials by 2030.
Key Lithium Extraction Projects in Russia
To meet these objectives, numerous investment projects have already been launched or are planned in promising deposits:
- Kolmozerskoye (Murmansk Region) — the largest lithium deposit in the country (about 19% of Russia's total reserves). It is being developed by the joint venture "Polar Lithium" (Norilsk Nickel and the mining division of the state corporation Rosatom). Ore extraction is slated to commence in 2028, with production expected to reach project capacity by 2030-2031, producing up to 45,000 tons of lithium carbonate and hydroxide annually.
- Polmostundrovskoye (Murmansk Region) — one of the largest lithium deposits on the Kola Peninsula. The development license has been awarded to JSC "Khalmek" and PJSC "Krasnoyarsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant" (Project "Arctic Lithium"). Pilot ore extraction started in 2023, with plans to increase extraction to the equivalent of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year by 2026.
- Tastygskoye (Tuva Republic) — a large lithium deposit (about 600,000 tons of lithium oxide). It is being developed by "Elbrusmetall-lithium" (part of the state corporation "Rostec"). The license was obtained in 2023, and road and mining and processing plant construction are underway. The project aims to start producing lithium ore concentrate (with accompanying niobium, tantalum, and tin) by 2027-2028, which will then be processed into lithium carbonate at Russian facilities. This project aims to cover up to half of the country's internal demand by 2030.
- Kovykta (Irkutsk Region) — an innovative project for extracting lithium from underground brines at the Kovykta gas condensate field. It is being implemented with the participation of PJSC "Gazprom" and the Irkutsk Oil Company. In 2022-2023, a technology for sorptive lithium extraction has been developed, and preparations for a pilot industrial installation are underway. Upon successful technology implementation, production of lithium carbonate from lithium-rich brines of Kovykta is planned to commence by the end of the decade.
Prospects: Russia on the Global Lithium Map
The realization of these planned projects has the potential to fundamentally change Russia’s position in the global lithium industry. By reaching an output level of around 28,000 tons annually by 2030, the country will emerge as a significant lithium producer (for comparison, in 2024, this would exceed the annual production levels in Zimbabwe or Argentina). Such a leap would not only eliminate the domestic market's dependence on imports but also strengthen the raw material base for developing its own high-tech industries. The country is already constructing facilities for producing lithium-ion batteries—for instance, the Rosatom battery cell production plant in Kaliningrad is expected to start operations in 2025. Having its own raw materials and a complete cycle from "ore to battery" will allow Russia to reduce costs and risks within the increasingly critical value chain in the fields of electric mobility and energy.
For investors, the formation of a lithium industry in Russia opens up new opportunities. Major players—such as Norilsk Nickel, Rosatom, and Gazprom—are involved in extraction projects, signaling serious intentions and high-level support. State participation and the strategic nature of the programs mitigate risks for investors interested in this new segment. Undoubtedly, much will depend on the successful launch of production facilities and the conjuncture of the global market, which remains volatile. Nonetheless, against the backdrop of a global race for resources for a "green" economy, Russia's determination to secure a respectable position on the global lithium map appears to be a step towards diversifying its raw material base and strengthening the technological sovereignty of the country.
