Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Wednesday, December 10, 2025: Fed Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, Inflation in Russia

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on December 10, 2025. FOMC Meeting, Bank of Canada's Decision, Inflation Data from China, Russia, and Brazil; Speeches from the Governor of the Bank of England and the President of the ECB; EIA Oil Stocks; as well as Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Wednesday presents a busy agenda for investors: in Asia, the key release is China's consumer price index (CPI), which will confirm weak price pressure and likely the continuation of the People's Bank's accommodative policy; in the Middle East, the attention is on the first Russian-Emirati business forum in Dubai, highlighting the strengthening of bilateral partnerships; in Europe, market participants are monitoring speeches from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and ECB President Christine Lagarde for new signals regarding monetary policy. However, the main event of the day will be the FOMC meeting in the US — its outcomes will set the tone for stock market indexes and currency dynamics.

Complementing the picture are the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, the publication of November inflation data in Brazil (followed by a late meeting of Brazil's Central Bank), and statistics from the US Department of Energy on oil stocks. On the corporate front, a series of reports are expected: in the US, financial results will be shared by tech leaders (Oracle, Adobe, etc.) and several companies from retail and industry; in Europe, noteworthy releases include the tourist firm TUI and retailer Metro; in Asia, chipmakers (such as TSMC) will release trading updates; in Russia, Aeroflot will present its nine-month report. It is crucial for investors to assess these events collectively: signals from central banks ↔ bond yields ↔ currency exchange rates ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in the markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. All day — UAE/Russia: First Russian-Emirati Business Forum (Dubai).
2. 04:30 — China: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November.
3. 13:45 — UK: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
4. 13:55 — Eurozone: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
5. 15:00 — Brazil: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November.
6. 17:45 — Canada: Bank of Canada's decision on the key rate.
7. 18:30 — US: Crude oil inventories according to EIA (weekly statistics).
8. 18:30 — Canada: Press conference by the Bank of Canada following the meeting.
9. 19:00 — Russia: Inflation rate (CPI, operational data for November, y/y).
10. 22:00 — US: Federal budget for November.
11. 22:00 — US: FOMC meeting (final decision on the FOMC rate).
12. 22:30 — US: Press conference with FOMC Chair Jerome Powell.
13. 00:30 (Thu) — Brazil: Central Bank's interest rate decision.

Geopolitics: Russian-Emirati Business Forum

• Dubai hosts the first Russian-Emirati Business Forum aimed at strengthening economic partnerships between Russia and the UAE. The event features over 200 delegates – representatives of major companies, investment funds, tech startups, and logistics operators from both countries. The forum comes against a backdrop of increasing trade and investment between Russia and the Emirates and may culminate in the signing of new agreements in industry, energy, transport, and other sectors.

China: CPI and PBC Policy

• Inflation in China is anticipated to remain at approximately 0% y/y in November, reflecting weak consumer demand and deflationary pressures. The absence of price growth combined with recent declines in producer prices (PPI) reinforces expectations that the People's Bank of China will maintain its accommodative monetary policy to support the economy. Any signs of inflation revival could reduce the need for further stimulus measures, but current indicators suggest continued soft policies (low rates, liquidity injections) to boost domestic demand.

Europe: Signals from the Bank of England and ECB

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver speeches that investors will closely analyze for further plans regarding interest rates. In the UK, inflation still exceeds target levels; however, an economic slowdown may force the BoE to adopt a wait-and-see approach, hinting at a possible rate cut in 2026. Lagarde is likely to reaffirm the ECB's commitment to a 2% target and a cautious stance: as growth slows in the Eurozone, the regulator might signal a prolonged pause in rate increases. Any hints at a tone shift (more dovish or hawkish) could influence EUR and GBP exchange rates, as well as European bond markets.

US and Canada: FOMC Meeting and Bank of Canada Decision

• The Federal Reserve will hold its final FOMC meeting of the year. Markets widely expect a 0.25% cut in the Fed rate (to a range of ~5.00–5.25%) amidst slowing inflation and signs of a softening labor market. Investors will focus on the rhetoric from Fed Chair Jerome Powell: evaluations of inflation risks and hints at the policy trajectory in 2026 will be critical. A softer tone (indicating readiness for further easing) could weaken the dollar and support stock growth, whereas maintaining caution (hawkish tones regarding inflation) may provoke short-term volatility and rising bond yields.
• The Bank of Canada is expected to announce its rate decision: the regulator is likely to maintain the current rate (approximately 2.25%) after a year of rate cuts. The slowing economic growth and inflation nearing the target allow the central bank to pause its easing. In the accompanying statement, market participants will look for signals regarding future plans—such as readiness to resume rate cuts in the event of a more severe economic downturn. The Canadian dollar and bond market will react to the tone of the communication: a neutral message will reinforce current expectations, while an unexpectedly dovish stance (hinting at future stimuli) may lead to additional declines in yields and depreciation of the currency.

Emerging Markets: Inflation in Russia and Central Bank of Brazil Decision

• In Russia, operational estimates for November inflation will show an annual price increase of around 6%, exceeding the Central Bank of Russia's target (4%). Despite some slowdown compared to autumn peaks, inflationary pressures remain significant due to the weakening ruble and government spending. November data will be critical for understanding price dynamics by year-end: if inflation does not slow down, the Central Bank of Russia is likely to maintain a tough rhetoric and high rates at the upcoming meeting. For the ruble, persistently high inflation indicates limited room for rate cuts, potentially forcing the regulator to keep strict monetary conditions for an extended period.
• In Brazil, November CPI is expected to be below 5% y/y, continuing the trend of slowing price growth due to previous policy tightening. Against the backdrop of declining inflation, the Central Bank of Brazil (Copom) is likely to reduce the benchmark rate (currently around 9.25%) at its night meeting to support the economy. Markets have priced in expectations for a cut of about 0.50%, so regulator comments on further steps will be key. Continuing the easing cycle in Brazil will support the local stock market and bonds, but may create some pressures on the real.

Oil Market: EIA Stocks

• The weekly EIA report on US commercial oil inventories will provide fresh insights into the balance of supply and demand in the energy market. In recent weeks, there has been a reduction in inventories amidst a revival in demand and supply constraints from OPEC+, supporting oil prices. If data show a significant outflow of stocks again, oil prices may receive an additional upward impulse (intensifying global inflation expectations). Conversely, an unexpected increase in inventories may cool the rally in the oil market. Traders and investors in the commodities sector closely monitor this indicator ahead of year's end when fuel demand is subject to seasonal fluctuations.

Corporate Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Asia)

• Chewy (CHWY) — an American online pet products retailer, will report before market open. Focus areas include revenue growth and customer base in Q3, as well as dynamics of average transaction size and profitability of the e-commerce business in a highly competitive environment. Previous results from Chewy demonstrated double-digit sales growth (~9% y/y) and improved profitability; the market will be keen to see if this trend continues and to hear management's forecast for the holiday season. Strong metrics could support the company's stock and the online retail sector, while slow revenue growth or deteriorating forecasts will heighten investor caution.

Corporate Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• Oracle (ORCL) — a leading enterprise software and cloud services provider, will report for Q2 of FY 2026 after the US market closes. Investors are primarily interested in the dynamics of Oracle's cloud business (OCI — Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) and sales of enterprise software solutions. The company is banking on growing demand from AI projects and expanding its cloud portfolio. If the report confirms high growth rates for cloud services and profits, Oracle shares and those of other tech giants may receive a boost. Conversely, weak results or a cautious outlook could lead to a correction, given the recent appreciation of tech sector valuations.
• Adobe (ADBE) — a market leader in software solutions (Creative Cloud, marketing solutions), will present its results for Q4 of FY 2025. Key metrics include growth in subscription revenue from cloud services (Creative Cloud, Document Cloud) and the trajectory in the digital marketing segment. Amid the advancements in generative AI technology, investors also expect comments on the implementation of AI tools in Adobe products and its impact on customer acquisition. Strong revenue growth and an optimistic guidance will reinforce confidence in Adobe's business model, while a slowdown in demand from corporate clients may raise concerns about the company's high valuations.
• Synopsys (SNPS) — a software developer for chip design, will report its financial results for 2025. The semiconductor sector is experiencing heightened demand for chips for AI and automotive electronics, supporting Synopsys’ order book. Investors will assess revenue and profit growth as well as new deals with chip manufacturers. Strong performance from Synopsys will confirm that companies in the sector are actively investing in R&D despite macro uncertainty, which is positive for the entire high-tech segment. However, poor results could provoke a negative reaction given the high expectations from the IT sector.
• Nordson (NDSN) — an industrial engineering company (dosage and coating systems), will publish its report for Q4 2025. Nordson's results will serve as a barometer for demand in the manufacturing industry: its equipment is used in the production of goods, packaging, and electronics. Analysts predict stable revenue or a slight decline amid a global manufacturing slowdown; however, improved operational efficiency may support margins. If profits exceed forecasts through cost reductions, this will confirm business flexibility; weak sales, however, will indicate corporate customers' caution in spending.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): among the key European companies reporting on December 10 are TUI (tourism holding) and Metro AG (retail/wholesale). While these releases are interesting, the overall sentiment in European markets will largely depend on external factors – signals from the US FOMC and commodity price dynamics, as well as commentary from the UK and European central banks. A lack of surprises in corporate results and macro data will support the stability of the Euro Stoxx 50 index, while negative factors could increase volatility.
• Nikkei 225 (Asia): in Japan, the publication of financial results from large corporations on this day is limited (the main earnings season concluded earlier), so Asian investors are focused on external news. At the same time, trading updates from Taiwanese tech giants, TSMC and MediaTek, presenting data for November reflecting global semiconductor demand, are noteworthy. Strong performance from TSMC (revenue growth due to demand for AI chips) will buoy sentiment in Asian markets; however, weak sales data could indicate ongoing cyclical risks in the industry and potentially weigh on the electronics sector.
• MOEX (Russia): among Russian issuers, Aeroflot stands out on December 10, presenting its financial results under IFRS for the first nine months of 2025. It is expected that the airline's results were influenced by a recovery in passenger traffic and exchange rate changes. If Aeroflot shows confident growth in revenue and profits, this will improve sentiment regarding the aviation sector and consumer stocks on the Moscow Exchange. Overall, however, trading activity on the Russian stock market may remain subdued ahead of the key external events of the day (primarily the US FOMC decision), which determine global risk appetite among investors.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention to

• 1) FOMC Decision: the results of the meeting and comments from J. Powell are the main trigger of the day for all markets. FOMC outcomes will directly impact US Treasury yields, the dollar exchange rate, and stock valuations (especially in the tech sector). Any deviation from expectations (such as more hawkish rhetoric or unconventional rate decisions) could provoke a sharp reaction in stock indices and currency rates.
• 2) Inflation Data: the CPI releases in China, Russia, and Brazil will provide signals about global price trends. Low inflation in China confirms the absence of price pressure and affects sentiment in commodity markets, while figures from Russia and Brazil will show how successfully these economies are taming price growth. It is important for investors to compare inflation trends in developed and emerging markets with the actions of respective central banks and interest rate prospects.
• 3) Oil Factor: the statistics on oil inventories (EIA) could shift energy prices in the short term, impacting shares of oil & gas companies and currencies of commodity-exporting countries (CAD, RUB). Given the influence of oil prices on overall inflation, a sudden hike or drop in oil prices following EIA data could alter market expectations regarding further policy moves by regulators.
• 4) Corporate Reports: financial results from giants like Oracle and Adobe, along with other reporting firms, could locally change the power dynamics in specific sectors. Strong reports from tech companies could shift market focus from macro statistics to corporate stories, supporting growth in the Nasdaq and related sectors. However, disappointments in reporting (below profit forecasts or weak guidance) threaten to trigger sell-offs in the corresponding stocks, even amid a positive external backdrop.
• 5) Day's Volatility: due to the high density of events on December 10, investors should prepare in advance for possible sharp movements. It is advisable to determine key levels for their positions, use limit orders for entry/exit, and, if necessary, plan for hedging part of their portfolio. This proactive risk management approach will help navigate the day of intensive news with greater confidence.